BxEngine Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Your point? To quote the great Earthlight from yesterday. We'll see who has the last today. My call is for ~1.00" region wide. Who said anything about having the last laugh? Jesus christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Well what underwhelmed yesterday overwhelmed today, mid 60s now above forecast upper 50s for today. The dreaded easterly flow this time of year will make tomorrow feel entirely different, low to mid 40s for highs on Friday with cloudy skies and rain is ouch. Yep typical April..today's a beautiful day tomorrow not so much. That's why its hard to make definitive statements about springlike weather this time of year. We can easily over or underperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Who said anything about having the last laugh? Jesus christ. Chill out, it wasn't meant to be a serious remark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Yep typical April..today's a beautiful day tomorrow not so much. That's why its hard to make definitive statements about springlike weather this time of year. We can easily over or underperform Yes it is and I continue to worry about BDCF despite the models depictions of warmer weather later this month and Canada will still be below normal. It will time some time for the waters to warm, but typically these next two months can have some of the nicest weather you'll find all year. This period, early April to mid-late May and the late September through early November period can be some of the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 The 15z SREF's have definitely shifted north now putting the heaviest totals over NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 67 at Central Park now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 67 at Central Park now! Central Park can really overperform before the spring leaf out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Central Park can really overperform before the spring leaf out. Teteboro is also at 67. Newark is at 63 and getting a breeze off the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Teteboro is also at 67. Newark is at 63 and getting a breeze off the bay. Newark has been very close to NYC for maximum April warmth since 2000. The April high since 2000 at Central Park is 96 and 97 for Newark. But during the summers since 2000, the overgrowth around the NYC ASOS kept the high at 104 while Newark made 108. I am thinking that NYC would have made it to around 106 had the vegetation been at pre 90's levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Newark has been very close to NYC for maximum April warmth since 2000. The April high since 2000 at Central Park is 96 and 97 for Newark. But during the summers since 2000, the overgrowth around the NYC ASOS kept the high at 104 while Newark made 108. I am thinking that NYC would have made it to around 106 had the vegetation been at pre 90's levels. a four degree spread on hot days between Newark and KNYC happened before the veggies took over...July 9th 1936 KNYC hit 106 while Newark hit 104 but most of the time Newark was warmer or the same... date...Newark...KNYC... 6/15/1994...101.....96 6/19/1994...102.....98 6/22/1988...101.....98 7/03/1966...105...103 7/04/1949...105...102 7/02/1963.....99.....94 7/10/1993...105...102 7/31/1954...103...100 9/02/1953...105...102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Well what underwhelmed yesterday overwhelmed today, mid 60s now above forecast upper 50s for today. The dreaded easterly flow this time of year will make tomorrow feel entirely different, low to mid 40s for highs on Friday with cloudy skies and rain is ouch. Yea tomorrow is not going to be that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 a four degree spread on hot days between Newark and KNYC happened before the veggies took over...July 9th 1936 KNYC hit 106 while Newark hit 104 but most of the time Newark was warmer or the same... date...Newark...KNYC... 6/15/1994...101.....96 6/19/1994...102.....98 6/22/1988...101.....98 7/03/1966...105...103 7/04/1949...105...102 7/02/1963.....99.....94 7/10/1993...105...102 7/31/1954...103...100 9/02/1953...105...102 NYC and EWR seemed to be within 2 degrees of each other quite a bit before the 2000's on some of hottest days of the year. NYC... 7/21/77...104 EWR...7/21/77...102 NYC...7/20/80...101 EWR..7/20/80...101 NYC...8/20/83...96 EWR..8/20/83...97 NYC...7/16/88..99 EWR..7/16/88..101 NYC...7/15/95....102 EWR..7/15/95....104 NYC.. 7/5/99.......101 EWR..7/5/99.......103 NYC..8/9/01.....103 EWR.8/9/01.....105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Amazing what an east wind can do this time of year. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Does anyone feel there is at least one remote snow chance for the NYC area for April or can we put this season to rest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Does anyone feel there is at least one remote snow chance for the NYC area for April or can we put this season to rest? 99% chance its over. Gfs is near 70 next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Amazing what an east wind can do this time of year. Yuck. john, c'mon man we were enjoying today now you post this depressing graphic :LOL. seriously though looks like from just past mid month on some noticeable moderation should start to take place in our region with some SE ridge push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Yea tomorrow is not going to be that great. Especially in contrast to today's beauty of a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 99% chance its over. Gfs is near 70 next Friday It could be even warmer than that if the gfs is correct but we're talking over a week out and it's always tricky at the coast in early Spring. I would be happy to hold off on the 70s until May tbh. Why rush them since they'll be here with us for the next several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The approaching rain shield looks solid and although fairly light to sometimes moderate in nature, it should be several hours of steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Euro is going to fail on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The 18z GFS was around 1.75" of rain through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 NYC and EWR seemed to be within 2 degrees of each other quite a bit before the 2000's on some of hottest days of the year. NYC... 7/21/77...104 EWR...7/21/77...102 NYC...7/20/80...101 EWR..7/20/80...101 NYC...8/20/83...96 EWR..8/20/83...97 NYC...7/16/88..99 EWR..7/16/88..101 NYC...7/15/95....102 EWR..7/15/95....104 NYC.. 7/5/99.......101 EWR..7/5/99.......103 NYC..8/9/01.....103 EWR.8/9/01.....105 8/9/01 i was out on the golf course....hottest day ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Does anyone feel there is at least one remote snow chance for the NYC area for April or can we put this season to rest? done - thank god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Newark has been very close to NYC for maximum April warmth since 2000. The April high since 2000 at Central Park is 96 and 97 for Newark. But during the summers since 2000, the overgrowth around the NYC ASOS kept the high at 104 while Newark made 108. I am thinking that NYC would have made it to around 106 had the vegetation been at pre 90's levels. This comes up a lot and I've been thinking about this. It is probably true that the vegetation keeps the park cooler than the surrounding developed city during the growing season, but that is representative of the climate in the park and not as some say, an error in siting the sensors. Nor does it represent any malfeasance in not removing or trimming the plants. You could argue that NYC could have been around 110 if they had blacktopped the park, but then it wouldn't be the park that it is. Really, the heat island is more of an aberration than the readings from the park. I am not aware of any reliable published readings from street side weather stations in Manhattan, but wouldn't be surprised if there were some crazy summertime maxes in spots. Here is an interesting take on heat island and a partial solution to reducing it: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/sep/02/green-roof-urban-heat-island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 This comes up a lot and I've been thinking about this. It is probably true that the vegetation keeps the park cooler than the surrounding developed city during the growing season, but that is representative of the climate in the park and not as some say, an error in siting the sensors. Nor does it represent any malfeasance in not removing or trimming the plants. You could argue that NYC could have been around 110 if they had blacktopped the park, but then it wouldn't be the park that it is. Really, the heat island is more of an aberration than the readings from the park. I am not aware of any reliable published readings from street side weather stations in Manhattan, but wouldn't be surprised if there were some crazy summertime maxes in spots. Here is an interesting take on heat island and a partial solution to reducing it: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/sep/02/green-roof-urban-heat-island The cooling of daily highs relative to the means all about the increasing vegetation growth around the sensor. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40726-central-park-summer-cooling-since-the-90s/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Euro is going to fail on this 12z and 0z Euro had .11" for NYC through now. Verification = .10" for KNYC so far. Euro then has .30" very late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The cooling of daily highs relative to the means all about the increasing vegetation growth around the sensor. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40726-central-park-summer-cooling-since-the-90s/ 100.gif NYCMAX.gif Is it possible that increased UHI or some other factor at LGA has also contributed to the discrepancy in relative number of 90 degree days between the sites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The Euro and GFS have a strong southerly jet and pwats near 1.50" with the warm front on Monday night. We have potential for elevated convection and rainfall totals 1"+, out of that system alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The Euro and GFS have a strong southerly jet and pwats near 1.50" with the warm front on Monday night. We have potential for elevated convection and rainfall totals 1"+, out of that system alone. 0z Euro had 1"-1.50" areawide with the Monday night system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 0z Euro had 1"-1.50" areawide with the Monday night system. About 1/3'rd of the individual members had more QPF than the op. Also FWIW the 09z SREF's were already 0.75"+ just through 00z Tuesday with a lot more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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