Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 38 degree highs are not "mid winter" for Marquette. Its actually just as unusual for Marquette to reach 38 in January as it is for New York City to reach 60 in January. Since Marquette has seen all time record highs in the mid-40's on most January days, I'd say that it is just as unusual for Marquette to reach 45 F as it is for NYC to reach 60 F in January. The average high in Marquette in January is about 22 F...around 15 F less than the long term average in the NYC area...before the 1970 - 2000 warm period. Also I don't think that the poster you quoted directly stated that the *temperatures* were mid-winter like up there...but rather the implication was, with the Lake still frozen and considerable snow still on the ground (as evinced by the attached image)...that the image or feel of winter was still alive there...even though the calendar was just hours from turning into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Since Marquette has seen all time record highs in the mid-40's on most January days, I'd say that it is just as unusual for Marquette to reach 45 F as it is for NYC to reach 60 F in January. The average high in Marquette in January is about 22 F...around 15 F less than the long term average in the NYC area...before the 1970 - 2000 warm period. Your interpretation of the unusualness of 45 degrees in MQT is incorrect. For example, from 1981-2010, NYC had 33 days which reached 60 or greater during the month of January. That's approximately once per year, though obviously some years had several and others had none. At MQT, there was exactly the same number of days which reached 40 or greater during the same 1981-2010 period in the month of January. By comparison, MQT had only 5 days... yes, just 5 days... which reached 45 or greater in January during the 1981-2010 period. A far lower frequency. Also I don't think that the poster you quoted directly stated that the *temperatures* were mid-winter like up there...but rather the implication was, with the Lake still frozen and considerable snow still on the ground (as evinced by the attached image)...that the image or feel of winter was still alive there...even though the calendar was just hours from turning into May. If temperature was not what he was going for, then I misinterpreted him. I interpreted his comment to suggest that 38 was a mid-winter like high, which clearly, it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Your interpretation of the unusualness of 45 degrees in MQT is incorrect. For example, from 1981-2010, NYC had 33 days which reached 60 or greater during the month of January. That's approximately once per year, though obviously some years had several and others had none. At MQT, there was exactly the same number of days which reached 40 or greater during the same 1981-2010 period in the month of January. By comparison, MQT had only 5 days... yes, just 5 days... which reached 45 or greater in January during the 1981-2010 period. A far lower frequency. If temperature was not what he was going for, then I misinterpreted him. I interpreted his comment to suggest that 38 was a mid-winter like high, which clearly, it is not. The usefulness of your 38 F may be wrong...you have just listed number of days inside a short subset of the climate record...this will require further research...though the fact that you took issue with what I wrote comes as no surprise...as you have agreed with nothing I have written for seven long years. What needs to be determined is average extreme maximum temperatures for both locations for the month of January and then see the difference between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 The usefulness of your 38 F may be wrong...you have just listed number of days inside a short subset of the climate record...this will require further research...though the fact that you took issue with what I wrote comes as no surprise...as you have agreed with nothing I have written for seven long years. What needs to be determined is average extreme maximum temperatures for both locations for the month of January and then see the difference between the two. The first thing I've found is that the long term average extreme maximum temperature for Central Park for the month of January is just 57.08 F...so just need to find Marquette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 The first thing I've found is that the long term average extreme maximum temperature for Central Park for the month of January is just 57.08 F...so just need to find Marquette. If you use the full period of record for Central Park, yes. For the 1981-2010 period, its just shy of 60.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 The usefulness of your 38 F may be wrong...you have just listed number of days inside a short subset of the climate record...this will require further research...though the fact that you took issue with what I wrote comes as no surprise...as you have agreed with nothing I have written for seven long years. What needs to be determined is average extreme maximum temperatures for both locations for the month of January and then see the difference between the two. For the 1981-2010 period, the Central Park average is just shy of 60, while for MQT its just shy of 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 For the 1981-2010 period, the Central Park average is just shy of 60, while for MQT its just shy of 39. Your affinity for these short subsets supposedly to obtain some "snapshot of the changing climate" is well documented...though the warm, snowless data is invariably what you trumpet...while record snowfalls are written off as anomalous flukes, the result of over measurements, or quietly suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 The first thing I've found is that the long term average extreme maximum temperature for Central Park for the month of January is just 57.08 F...so just need to find Marquette. I have 39 F for Marquette...an 18 F difference...though, in fairness...it is based on the 1981 - 2000 data...for an 18 F difference between the stations...though the periods of record are not quite the same. Though if we applied them to the original argument...we would be looking at a 60 F / 42 F split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I have 39 F for Marquette...an 18 F difference...though, in fairness...it is based on the 1981 - 2000 data...for an 18 F difference between the stations...though the periods of record are not quite the same. Though if we applied them to the original argument...we would be looking at a 60 F / 42 F split. If Marquette's long term January extreme maximum is likewise 39F...then it will appear that I have made a good case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Your affinity for these short subsets supposedly to obtain some "snapshot of the changing climate" is well documented...though the warm, snowless data is invariably what you trumpet...while record snowfalls are written off as anomalous flukes, the result of over measurements, or quietly suppressed. Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind: 1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question. 2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS. 3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable. 4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong. 5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains. 6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns. *The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality. The snow that the coast is getting was probably stolen from inland areas. State College's average snowfall declined 2" between the 1971-2000 period and the 1981-2010 period. Its just regional thievery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Also I don't think that the poster you quoted directly stated that the *temperatures* were mid-winter like up there...but rather the implication was, with the Lake still frozen and considerable snow still on the ground (as evinced by the attached image)...that the image or feel of winter was still alive there...even though the calendar was just hours from turning into May. William, thanks for clarifying my post; that's exactly what I meant. No matter where you reside in the CONUS, I think a frozen lake, deep snowpack, and temps in the 30s is very impressive for April 30th. I'm well aware that Marquette averages much colder than 38F highs in mid winter, but the landscape and weather conditions are still very much "winter like" up there, which is incredible given the calendar date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Plenty more rain to come in the long range GFS. Looks like more cut off lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 The record breaking blocking centered near Alaska and NE PAC finally shifted the coldest anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere to our side of the globe. The coldest departures in recent years for the Northern Hemisphere have been found in Asia into Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I wonder if that will last a few years, the cold being on our side for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I wonder if that will last a few years, the cold being on our side for once. If we get an El Nino pattern next winter, then Canada will be warmer that we saw this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Incredible to see deep snowpack in the northern UP still. The frozen Lake Superior has allowed temps near the coast of the UP to remain quite chilly compared to further inland. I was shocked to check Marquette's weather to find 38 degree highs this past weekend. It's still mid winter up there. Has to be record breaking. Snowpack also remains in the northern part of Maine. William, thanks for clarifying my post; that's exactly what I meant. No matter where you reside in the CONUS, I think a frozen lake, deep snowpack, and temps in the 30s is very impressive for April 30th. I'm well aware that Marquette averages much colder than 38F highs in mid winter, but the landscape and weather conditions are still very much "winter like" up there, which is incredible given the calendar date. You also commented that it "had to be record breaking". Here's some stats: Average snow depth for April 2014: 19.2". Record average snow depth for April: 31.4" in 2013. Since 1962, 1972 (25.8") and 1996 (21.2") also had higher average snow depths in April. Maximum snow depth for April 2014: 39". Record maximum snow depth for April: 41" in 1997. Since 1962, the years 1972, 1975 and 2013 also had maximum snow depths of 39". Consecutive number of days with snow depth 1 inch or greater: 157 days, ending on April 27th. Record consecutive number of days with snow depth 1 inch or greater: 167 days, ending on May 4th 1972. 1994 (164) and 1969 (162) also had a greater number of consecutive days with snow depth 1 inch or greater. 2013 (May 1st) and 1996 (May 11th) also had long periods of high snow depth which ended later than April 27th. Average April 2014 temperature: 32.9 degrees. Record lowest average April 2014 temperature: 31.0 degrees in 1972. 1996 (31.5), 1975 (31.8), 1995 (32.1) and 2013 (32.4) also had average temperatures lower than this April. Finally, the chilly high of 37 degrees over the weekend was *not* a daily record low maximum temperature. There have been a few this month, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 An impressively snowy April in Marquette nonetheless...and I believe the 2nd snowiest in the last 53 years (since 1961) with 35.8 inches of snow this month...only April 1996 saw more. April 2013 was also unusually snowy and cold in Marquette...with a mean temp of 32.4 F (-5.5 F DFN) and 27.6 inches of snow (around 200% of normal). The winters in the U.P. are traditionally extremely brutal with several favored areas having annual snowfall averages well over 300 inches. Still, April 2014 will be remembered in the Marquette area as one of the more severe Aprils in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 An impressively snowy April in Marquette nonetheless...and I believe the 2nd snowiest in the last 53 years (since 1961) with 35.8 inches of snow this month...only April 1996 saw more. Actually I see 55.2" listed in April 2007, 43.4" in 1996 and 38.5" in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Actually I see 55.2" listed in April 2007, 43.4" in 1996 and 38.5" in 2008. Lol...good catch...that Michigan State Climate Office page is a tough one to navigate... http://climate.geo.msu.edu/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 April ended up averaging 52.3 in KNYC...That's below the short term average but above the long term average...max temp was 77 and the min temp was 31... April decade averages...NYC Central Park obs since 1870...decade......temp...high...low...max...min...ave max ave min...precip...snow...B.S.1870's........47.9...53.3...41.1....na...20..........na........na........3.86"....1.8"....10.0"1880's........48.5...52.9...46.0....84...21.........77.6.......27.4.....2.92"....0.7".....3.0"1890's........49.3...52.3...46.4....90...24.........79.1.......28.2.....2.59"....0.8".....3.0"1900's........49.6...52.2...46.6....84...24.........77.7.......30.4.....3.94"....0.6".....5.0"1910's........50.6...55.1...47.8....92...22.........79.6.......29.3.....3.78"....2.3"....10.2"1920's........50.2...56.1...47.3....90...12.........82.6.......28.3.....3.62"....0.9".....8.5"1930's........49.9...53.7...47.9....89...28.........79.0.......31.9.....3.46"....0.6".....6.4"1940's........51.4...56.9...46.1....91...24.........79.7.......31.5.....3.33"....1.1".....6.5"1950's........52.4...55.0...48.2....85...23.........81.1.......31.7.....3.82"....1.0".....4.2"1960's........52.1...55.9...49.0....91...28.........82.9.......31.8.....3.33"....0.1".....1.2"1970's........52.2...55.2...47.9....96...25.........84.2.......29.1.....3.82"....0.1".....0.4"1980's........53.3...56.2...51.2....88...21.........79.9.......31.8.....5.59"....1.0".....9.6"1990's........53.2...55.7...50.5....91...23.........81.3.......32.4.....3.77"....0.1".....0.7"2000's........53.5...56.1...49.8....96...29.........86.3.......32.0.....4.67"....0.5".....4.0"2010's........54.5...57.9...52.3....92...31.........83.6.......34.7.....4.21"....trace trace .... 2010-141870-2009..........51.0...54.8...47.6....na...na.........80.8.......30.4.....3.72"....0.8".....5.2"1980-2009..........53.3...56.0...50.5....na...na.........82.5.......32.1.....4.68"....0.5".....4.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 April 2014 ends up as a top six wettest on record... April extremes...warmest........coldest........wettest........driest........snowiest57.9 2010...41.1 1874...14.01" 1983...0.95" 1881...13.5" 187556.9 1941...43.1 1875...13.05" 2007...1.09" 1942...10.2" 191556.2 1981...46.0 1888.....8.77" 1874...1.27" 1963.....9.6" 198256.1 1921...46.1 1943.....8.26" 1980...1.27" 1896.....8.5" 192456.1 2002...46.3 1887.....8.05" 1973...1.39" 1869.....6.5" 194455.9 1969...46.3 1881.....7.85" 2014...1.41" 1985.....6.5" 191755.7 1991...46.4 1893.....7.05" 1998...1.43" 1946.....6.4" 193855.7 2006...46.6 1904.....6.62" 1984...1.53" 1935.....5.8" 190755.6 1994...46.7 1907.....6.62" 1901...1.58" 2001.....5.0" 188755.6 1945...46.7 1873.....6.33" 1996...1.66" 1950.....4.2" 1956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 April 2014 ends up as a top six wettest on record... April extremes... warmest........coldest........wettest........driest........snowiest 57.9 2010...41.1 1874...14.01" 1983...0.95" 1881...13.5" 1875 56.9 1941...43.1 1875...13.05" 2007...1.09" 1942...10.2" 1915 56.2 1981...46.0 1888.....8.77" 1874...1.27" 1963.....9.6" 1982 56.1 1921...46.1 1943.....8.26" 1980...1.27" 1896.....8.5" 1924 56.1 2002...46.3 1887.....8.05" 1973...1.39" 1869.....6.5" 1944 55.9 1969...46.3 1881.....7.85" 2014...1.41" 1985.....6.5" 1917 55.7 1991...46.4 1893.....7.05" 1998...1.43" 1946.....6.4" 1938 55.7 2006...46.6 1904.....6.62" 1984...1.53" 1935.....5.8" 1907 55.6 1994...46.7 1907.....6.62" 1901...1.58" 2001.....5.0" 1887 55.6 1945...46.7 1873.....6.33" 1996...1.66" 1950.....4.2" 1956 Great stats as always, uncle. Quick question...what source did you use that had 8.77" in 1874? NWS NowData for the NYC weather station itself goes back to 1876...then I changed the search to "New York Central Park area" and found 7.02" in April, 1874...and all the other years seemed to match up perfectly with the individual station. It would be nice to say this April was a top 5 wettest instead of top 6 wettest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Great stats as always, uncle. Quick question...what source did you use that had 8.77" in 1874? NWS NowData for the NYC weather station itself goes back to 1876...then I changed the search to "New York Central Park area" and found 7.02" in April, 1874...and all the other years seemed to match up perfectly with the individual station. It would be nice to say this April was a top 5 wettest instead of top 6 wettest There are "issues" with how Central Park is threaded, but I'm certainly not in any position to try to fix it. NCDC and the regional climate centers, for whatever reason, don't have pre 1876 data on file for the park, so they used data from the Battery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Great stats as always, uncle. Quick question...what source did you use that had 8.77" in 1874? NWS NowData for the NYC weather station itself goes back to 1876...then I changed the search to "New York Central Park area" and found 7.02" in April, 1874...and all the other years seemed to match up perfectly with the individual station. It would be nice to say this April was a top 5 wettest instead of top 6 wettest http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualpcpn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Pretty sure they're blooming in central Jersey. Dogwoods blooming here now. Noticeable leafout in progress as well, but most trees not fully leaved yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.