April 2014 discussion

[bluewave]

NYC is on track for the first year without an 80 degree reading by the end of April since 2000.

The list of years since the late 80's are 2000, 1997, 1995, 1993 and 1988.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NYC is on track for the first year without an 80 degree reading by the end of April since 2000.

The list of years since the late 80's are 2000, 1997, 1995, 1993 and 1988.

I think that's pretty much a lock now. Unless a dramatic shift in modeling occurs.

Looks like all those who were mocking the cold april calls two weeks ago when it was warm may have spiked the football a bit early

[bluewave]

I think that's pretty much a lock now. Unless a dramatic shift in modeling occurs.

Looks like all those who were mocking the cold april calls two weeks ago when it was warm may have spiked the football a bit early

 

This has been the first time since 02-03/95-96  that we have seen an extended period of consistently below normal

temperatures from November through April. This is a much different pattern than since 2010

where we couldn't string more than a couple of cooler months together in a sea of warm.

 

[jjvesnow]

Not a bad start to the day at all. A little cool, but winds remain light. Hoping we can escape today without anymore rain.

[forkyfork]

narrow zone of clear skies monday.

 

[Mikehobbyst]

NYC is on track for the first year without an 80 degree reading by the end of April since 2000.

The list of years since the late 80's are 2000, 1997, 1995, 1993 and 1988.

I am starting to think we stay cool through 5/20 and then we step into the inferno for 5/20 through 7/15, with a gradual cool down and wetter time from 7/15-8/10 and then a very warm period from 8/10-9/15.  I am thinking a blend of the 1994/1997/2003/2009 summers.  Just my feelings. I think an above average SVR weather season this year. I feel a hot June this year, thinking along the lines of 6/1994. Correlation is pretty strong to the winter and spring similarities of that year. I remember a sunnier than normal April, then a more dreary back-doorish May and a torrid June in 1994. July and August were more normal warm. I think we get decent severe tstms this June.  Summer 2009 had its share of SVR weather.  I think we beat out last summer's "meh" in this.

[MJO812]

Alot of rain on the gfs for next week

[SACRUS]

NYC is on track for the first year without an 80 degree reading by the end of April since 2000.

The list of years since the late 80's are 2000, 1997, 1995, 1993 and 1988.

 

Many sites within a couple of miles hit 80 a few times this month.   Was surprised the park didn't reach 80 12-13th.   Some hot summers in that list but I suspect it doesn't mean much when we did have 80 degree warmth in a large chunk of the area.

[bluewave]

Many sites within a couple of miles hit 80 a few times this month.   Was surprised the park didn't reach 80 12-13th.   Some hot summers in that list but I suspect it doesn't mean much when we did have 80 degree warmth in a large chunk of the area.

 

We didn't get enough of a SW flow for NYC and LGA to get into the real warmth that NJ was able to. I think the 

summer will come down to how far west  WAR can build. Looks like most of the analogs favor cooler than

normal summer temps over the Great Lakes. The CFS first guess puts us right on the the edge of the

Western Atlantic Ridge influence. But a few hundred miles either way in the means will determine the

outcome here. It may be a battle between the ridge over the Atlantic and the trough in the Lakes which

would look something like a -1 to +1 summer depending on which feature wins out. Last summer

we had the WAR really take off in July  with a +1.3 combined summer average for NYC-LGA-JFK-EWR.

 

 

6-13...+1.2...+1.8...0.0...+0.9.....+1.0

7-13...+3.3...+3.8...+3.7...+3.5...+3.6

8-13....-0.6...-0.5....-0.5...-1.1......-0.7

 

[MJO812]

Getting overcast here

[IsentropicLift]

They must have released some water from the reservoirs today, river gauge suddenly shot up.

[IsentropicLift]

Heavy downpour here

[Tekken_Guy]

I see about 2-4 inches of rain over the next week, mostly over the Wed-Thu period. Temps will start to show a more normal pattern the week after.

[NEG NAO]

some convection moving through central NJ 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

[Stormlover74]

I see about 2-4 inches of rain over the next week, mostly over the Wed-Thu period. Temps will start to show a more normal pattern the week after.

Temps have been very normal

[SnoSki14]

Temps have been very normal

Yup for example Newark, NJ is at 0.2 temperature departure as of the 25th. It should slip under with the last couple days being very cool.

[forkyfork]

rainbow here

[wolfie09]

0.60" overnight, currently thundering with lgt rain..

[NycStormChaser]

0.60" overnight, currently thundering with lgt rain..

Thunder here in jersey city as well

[Tekken_Guy]

I still haven't got used to the fact that this is a normal April and the seemingly normal Aprils of the past few years were actually above average.

[Stormlover74]

0.60" overnight, currently thundering with lgt rain..

Looks like strong storms popping up down your way

[NorthShoreWx]

If by humans you mean the white man, sure, but natives supposedly set a lot of fires long before the white man came.

Not arguing that natives were part of that ecosystem but the fire based ecology preceeded them as well.

[famartin]

Not arguing that natives were part of that ecosystem but the fire based ecology preceeded them as well.

A limited fire ecology, sure.  It is far more widespread than it would naturally be.

[SnoSki14]

You know for all the doom and gloom about the coming week, it's really only Tuesday and Wednesday that will be awful, Thursday may still be showery but it'll be much warmer and we clear out somewhat by Friday and into the weekend. 

[famartin]

Not arguing that natives were part of that ecosystem but the fire based ecology preceeded them as well.

 

 

A limited fire ecology, sure.  It is far more widespread than it would naturally be.

 

Per this, only 1% of wildfires in NJ are caused by lightning.  99% are anthropogenic.

 

http://njforestry.org/files/FN7-05-2011NJ%20Wildfires.pdf

[bluewave]

Not arguing that natives were part of that ecosystem but the fire based ecology preceeded them as well.

 

 

A limited fire ecology, sure.  It is far more widespread than it would naturally be.

 

I guess the biggest problem now is that more and more people have moved into wildfire prone areas.

So you have the double whammy of an record drought out west coupled with more people in those

areas. The pre-settlement history had periods of record drought hundreds of years ago, but it wasn't really

news since the areas were uninhabited.

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20070511/1a_lede11.art.htm

 

 

Hundreds of thousands of Americans are moving to neighborhoods in the West repeatedly scorched by wildfires that now threaten to burn more often and with greater intensity.

Since 2000, roughly 450,000 people — enough to populate a city the size of Atlanta — moved to Western areas endangered by wildfires, a USA TODAY analysis shows. About 3.5 million people now inhabit those places, dotted through forests and scrub-covered mountain slopes from California to Colorado.

Many settle there to live in scenic settings, or because of the outward expansion of Western metropolises. A fire sparked on a dry and windy day could grow rapidly to catastrophic proportions, the analysis shows.

 

 

 

[famartin]

I guess the biggest problem now is that more and more people have moved into wildfire prone areas.

So you have the double whammy of an record drought out west coupled with more people in those

areas. The pre-settlement history had periods of record drought hundreds of years ago, but it wasn't really

news since the areas were uninhabited.

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20070511/1a_lede11.art.htm

 

 

Hundreds of thousands of Americans are moving to neighborhoods in the West repeatedly scorched by wildfires that now threaten to burn more often and with greater intensity.

Since 2000, roughly 450,000 people — enough to populate a city the size of Atlanta — moved to Western areas endangered by wildfires, a USA TODAY analysis shows. About 3.5 million people now inhabit those places, dotted through forests and scrub-covered mountain slopes from California to Colorado.

Many settle there to live in scenic settings, or because of the outward expansion of Western metropolises. A fire sparked on a dry and windy day could grow rapidly to catastrophic proportions, the analysis shows.

 

20140422_west_none.png

Do note my comments about the extent of fire ecology were location-based, i.e., New Jersey.

 

Here in the west, fires are very commonly started by lightning, since unlike in the east, we have a phenomenon know as "dry thunderstorms" where storms produce decent lightning but little rain.  Combined with our typically dry fuels during the summer months, the result is that fires are easily started naturally.  Here in rural Nevada, many thousands of acres are burned annually by lightning-caused fires.  Of course, most of it is sagebrush-steppe, not forest.

[bluewave]

Do note my comments about the extent of fire ecology were location-based, i.e., New Jersey.

 

Here in the west, fires are very commonly started by lightning, since unlike in the east, we have a phenomenon know as "dry thunderstorms" where storms produce decent lightning but little rain.  Combined with our typically dry fuels during the summer months, the result is that fires are easily started naturally.  Here in rural Nevada, many thousands of acres are burned annually by lightning-caused fires.  Of course, most of it is sagebrush-steppe, not forest.

 

It will be difficult out west if we approach the drought and fire levels that were common 

over 100 years ago when there was hardly much population in harm's way. 

 

[famartin]

Here are Nevada's fire statistics... over 50% started by lightning with over 90% of acreage consumed due to lightning-caused fires.  This is fire country.

Acres burnedYEAR   LIGHTNING    HUMAN2004      25,023   15,9272005   1,653,671   81,9382006   1,301,924   46,9472007     844,114   46,0572008      54,161   17,7692009       7,319   26,0462010      20,694    3,1732011     370,152   54,0162012     520,455   92,6712013     152,382   10,45910yrs  4,949,895  395,003Number of fire startsYEAR LIGHTNING  HUMAN2004       776    1742005       545    2662006       273    9042007       425    4632008       228    2242009       478    2092010       273    2122011       432    3832012       577    3672013       542    21510yrs    4,549  3,417

[monmouthcounty11]

Strong thunderstorm in Lincroft, lots of lightning and heavy rain.