jm1220 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The 12z GFS for May 3rd, that's not a warm signal at all The blocky pattern is going to be in place for quite some time, along with troughiness over us or NE of us. With that, we will never be able to get that warm, out of the 60s I'd say, and it will be quite wet. Maritime/backdoor hell for the rest of the month it looks like, if not also the first week of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 By Wham day, I mean the one that represents a significant change from chill to warmth. Sent from my iPhone and what proof do you have to back that up with ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Sorry. I just worded it wrong. I was trying to point out that I think significant warmth should start to show up more frequently after next week's wet and chilly period ends. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Going to be a very wet next ten days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Going to be a very wet next ten days ecmwf_tprecip_neng_41.png Good it'll hold down the pollen count for longer. Works for me and my allergies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 That convection to our SW looks pretty intense. Numerous tornado and severe warnings in the southern Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 That convection to our SW looks pretty intense. Numerous tornado and severe warnings in the southern Mid-Atlantic. Yeah Upton seems to think it could get stormy tomorrow afternoon .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THEMORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSIN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ANDSMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWESTWINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN60 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATEDSHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDSAND SMALL HAIL IN THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Latest Nam drops over an inch of rain with the upcoming disturbance, could see some heavy downpours dropping isolated 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Yeah Upton seems to think it could get stormy tomorrow afternoon .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THEMORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSIN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ANDSMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWESTWINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN60 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATEDSHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDSAND SMALL HAIL IN THE EVENING. I'm talking about tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The leading edge of the rain is already almost into Allentown. I think we should be raining before 9PM in most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The blocky pattern is going to be in place for quite some time, along with troughiness over us or NE of us. With that, we will never be able to get that warm, out of the 60s I'd say, and it will be quite wet. Maritime/backdoor hell for the rest of the month it looks like, if not also the first week of May. Yeah, all the warm ups that we have experienced since October have been transient here as colder than normal departures have been dominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 I also think it will start raining before the 10-11pm time models had.. based on the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 I also think it will start raining before the 10-11pm time models had.. based on the current radar. yankees and mets better plan on a rain shortened games and tomorrow does not look promising either - luckily philly is away but baltimore and washington are at home http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 20z HRRR has rain reaching the Bronx and Northern Queens between 9-10pm. Maybe some sprinkles before that. Looks right based on radar. Could be a few t-storms tomorrow afternoon, like Upton suggests. Very cold ULL passing overhead and some very steep lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 20z HRRR has rain reaching the Bronx and Northern Queens between 9-10pm. Maybe some sprinkles before that. Looks right based on radar. Could be a few t-storms tomorrow afternoon, like Upton suggests. Very cold ULL passing overhead and some very steep lapse rates. We have done well in coastal locals with this type of set up In the past. Quick and convective with some decent down bursts when things flare up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The rain is almost to Morristown now. My guess is rain by the 6-7th innings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 18z GFS has 4-5" of rain here through next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Sky to my west looks very ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Rain shield looking less impressive than it did an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Rain shield looking less impressive than it did an hour agoThat's because the coastal low is developing. The heaviest rain will be overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Yes it looks less impressive, that's not something new.. it seems storms find a way of becoming less heavy closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 That's because the coastal low is developing. The heaviest rain will be overnight. Models have very little rain after 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Obviously some haven't been watching the models. It blows up as the low passes south of LI around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Models have very little rain after 06zThe 4k NAM has heavy rain until about 4AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Rain has commenced here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Barely enough to dampen the ground so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Thank god I didn't go to the game. Not because of the rain..but because of the score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Really pouring out there now. I've picked up 0.57" in the last 2 hours. Hopefully it clears up by morning and we end up with a decent day, although I wouldn't mind a few pop up t-storms later in the afternoon which models seem to be hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 YanksFan is dancing a jig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 1.16" in the bucket last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.