SnoSki14 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Enjoy the nice weather on Sunday because next week is going to be down right miserable for a lot of folks here. That's your opinion. Bring on the cool, cloudy, and damp days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 That's your opinion. Bring on the cool, cloudy, and damp days. Yanksfan loves that kind of weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Yanksfan loves that kind of weather... Yeah, I'm looking forwards to days and days of endless rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Yanksfan loves that kind of weather... To each their own, I don't mind that type of weather during the week in April/May as long as the weekend is nice, which it may be for at least part of this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Yeah, I'm looking forwards to days and days of endless rain. I'm not seeing anything like that anyway. The GFS and Euro are not all that wet...maybe an inch spread over 4 days...still 5+ days out anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I'm not seeing anything like that anyway. The GFS and Euro are not all that wet...maybe an inch spread over 4 days...still 5+ days out anyway The 12z Euro has rain from hours ~156 right through to ~228. Yes, it won't rain constantly, but at hour 240 the cut off low is still parked over the great lakes. Every model is showing the same thing now, and the 00z ECMWF ensembles were even wetter than the OP last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 some people might not think today is a nice day at all. I live on a houseboat. Windy, cool days aren't too pleasent. It's kind of cool out. Too cool for short sleeves with the breeze on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensembles are so nasty for next week that even I find them to be miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensembles are so nasty for next week that even I find them to be miserable. we've lucked out the past few springs with decent weather-we're due for some 7 day cutoff garbage...hate to say it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 we've lucked out the past few springs with decent weather-we're due for some 7 day cutoff garbage...hate to say it Just like during the winter season, people get spoiled. I know a lot of people complain that we never get a true Spring, well this year will break the cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Just like during the winter season, people get spoiled. I know a lot of people complain that we never get a true Spring, well this year will break the cycle. We've seen pretty fantastic Springs the last few years despite all the complaining that they've sucked. They've been mostly above normal with near or below normal precip. We're actually due for a cooler, wetter Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 We've seen pretty fantastic Springs the last few years despite all the complaining that they've sucked. They've been mostly above normal with near or below normal precip. We're actually due for a cooler, wetter Spring. What I mean is that cooler and ranier is more typical historically than warm and dry from April through the end of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 18z moved the frontal boundary north for next week so while it'll be damp and cloudy, it would likely be pretty mild if not downright humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Southern NJ is better for storms, flat terrain and sometimes the outflow boundaries interact favorably with the sea breeze fronts. Truth be told, the best part of NJ for thunderstorms are the higher elevations of Passaic & Morris Counties due to orographic enhancement. These counties are also, not coincidentally, the wettest parts of the state. Sussex & Warren counties are also pretty good for t-storms...though a bit drier overall from an overall annual precipitation standpoint because they sometimes miss offshore coastal storms. The driest part of the state is in the southwest...south of Philadelphia...where flat terrain and distance from the ocean combine to keep it (relatively) dry. Hence the frequent summer time fire hazard in the Pine Barrens...though some are, of course, ignited by lightning strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Truth be told, the best part of NJ for thunderstorms are the higher elevations of Passaic & Morris Counties due to orographic enhancement. These counties are also, not coincidentally, the wettest parts of the state. Sussex & Warren counties are also pretty good for t-storms...though a bit drier overall from an overall annual precipitation standpoint because they sometimes miss offshore coastal storms. The driest part of the state is in the southwest...south of Philadelphia...where flat terrain and distance from the ocean combine to keep it (relatively) dry. Hence the frequent summer time fire hazard in the Pine Barrens...though some are, of course, ignited by lightning strikes. I spend a lot of time in Atlantic County during the summer and we get plenty of storms and plenty of severe storms. I live in Morris County and even though we get more precipitation up here, the storms have been weaker. I was down there a few summers ago for the mid Atlantic derecho and it was one of the few times I've ever been legit scared by the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 I spend a lot of time in Atlantic County during the summer and we get plenty of storms and plenty of severe storms. I live in Morris County and even though we get more precipitation up here, the storms have been weaker. I was down there a few summers ago for the mid Atlantic derecho and it was one of the few times I've ever been legit scared by the weather. Well, I'm certainly not saying you didn't observe these things; my comments were based on long term climate averages from the various NWS cooperatives state wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Well, I'm certainly not saying you didn't observe these things; my comments were based on long term climate averages from the various NWS cooperatives state wide.A lot of times the storm motion is out of the south or southwest down there and storms tend to fire along sea breeze fronts. South Jersey also sees a fair number of squall lines that miss NYC to the south but nail Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 40N is the dividing line often times w/ coastal storms. To William's point, the lower 1/3 of NJ is much drier, and so is NW Sussex County. Interestingly enough, even though Sussex has the highest point, it tends to miss out on some of the coastal events. Orographic lift across Morris and Passaic produce substantially more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 NW NJ sees the most T-storms on average, which makes sense meteorologically given their distance from the Atlantic ocean. 30 days per year contour cuts through NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 40N is the dividing line often times w/ coastal storms. To William's point, the lower 1/3 of NJ is much drier, and so is NW Sussex County. Interestingly enough, even though Sussex has the highest point, it tends to miss out on some of the coastal events. Orographic lift across Morris and Passaic produce substantially more precip. Thank you for visually corroborating my point Tom...thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Not disputing that Morris and Passaic Counties are the wettest part of the state. From personal experience the storms down south have been more severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 The driest part of the state is in the southwest...south of Philadelphia...where flat terrain and distance from the ocean combine to keep it (relatively) dry. Hence the frequent summer time fire hazard in the Pine Barrens...though some are, of course, ignited by lightning strikes. You know, I've yet to see a pine barrens fire which was natural. All the ones I remember were anthropogenic. As I recall, it was actually human influence which helps make the pines what they are today; without frequent human-caused fire, oaks would become dominant in most of the area, as they have in some sections already. This makes sense since prime fire season isn't summer thunderstorm season, but now, when cool dry winds can whip flames rapidly through last season's organic debris. The core of the barrens is actually from northern Atlantic north-northeast across southeastern Burlington and into western Ocean. Southwestern NJ, Salem County in particular, is actually a rather productive farm area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 You know, I've yet to see a pine barrens fire which was natural. All the ones I remember were anthropogenic. Would agree...most are accidental...a few are deliberately set by the sick-minded...and a very small percentage are caused by lightning strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Most of our brush fires up here are because someone tossed a cigarette butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 44 here. Beautiful sleeping weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 please explain Explain what? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Not new, have had them forever. Not sure about how common they are used in Eastern Region, but out here we use them all the time. Upton has been using them for the past few years in the spring when the conditions are there. URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 338 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 ...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING... NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-250000- /O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0001.140424T1300Z-140425T0000Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 338 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * AFFECTED AREA...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 11 PERCENT. * TIMING...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD POSSIBLE IF IGNITION OCCURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Looks like the GFS is a little more agressive with the push of cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Upton has been using them for the past few years in the spring when the conditions are there. URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 338 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 ...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING... NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-250000- /O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0001.140424T1300Z-140425T0000Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 338 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * AFFECTED AREA...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 11 PERCENT. * TIMING...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD POSSIBLE IF IGNITION OCCURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. Red flag warnings yes..what I was saying is I don't recall them using fire weather watches/warnings or are they the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Looks like there could be a big tornado outbreak Sunday in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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