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April 2014 discussion


Mikehobbyst

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Except it totally missed the + departures in the eastern 3rd of the country.

 

Those should decline over the next 10 days as we see mostly near to below normal

temps over our area. The original idea of warmer West and Southeast looks good

with the coldest temps over the Lakes and Midwest. It was just hinting at slightly

below normal here for the month. Central Park is at +0.5 down from +3.5 over a

week ago. Maybe NYC finishes the month 0 to -1?

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And so begins another "severe" storm season watching cells weaken as they cross the Delaware (but somehow manage to refire and blast Monmouth county)

 

 

Not in the summer season unfortunately...we're not nearly as lucky. We're a magnet for snow but it's the polar opposite for convection. I've lost count of the number of times T-storms looked healthy crossing through Mercer County, only to collapse once to Englishtown. Whether it's loss of instability, poor timing, or another factor, the caveat always seems to shine through. Those who have been around this area long have told me that the 80s and 90s were much more active T-storm wise here. 2000 and onward has sucked.

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Not in the summer season unfortunately...we're not nearly as lucky. We're a magnet for snow but it's the polar opposite for convection. I've lost count of the number of times T-storms looked healthy crossing through Mercer County, only to collapse once to Englishtown. Whether it's loss of instability, poor timing, or another factor, the caveat always seems to shine through. Those who have been around this area long have told me that the 80s and 90s were much more active T-storm wise here. 2000 and onward has sucked.

That's also true here on the island. Growing up I can remember multiple squall lines with legit 60mph plus winds. The 98 derecho being the biggest and best. Since then we haven't had a single event qualify as severe wind wise at my current location!
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They are already full and the drainages above them are still wet with plenty of flowing surface water. We really don't need the rain in the watershed areas right now.

I was mainly talking about hydrology issues. We've been laying the groundwork the past few weeks for significant issues down the road if this wet pattern persists.

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It's it me or is "leaf out" going to be very late this year?

With this next pattern for the next ten days or so im thinking that we may not statt having a consistent leaf out till mid may. Who knows maybe mikehobbyist call of leaf out in june may not be all that inaccurate. I was off yesterday and 95% of the trees i have to go up to see an actual bud.

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With this next pattern for the next ten days or so im thinking that we may not statt having a consistent leaf out till mid may. Who knows maybe mikehobbyist call of leaf out in june may not be all that inaccurate. I was off yesterday and 95% of the trees i have to go up to see an actual bud.

We have budding but it seems to be taking much longer than previous years.

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Impressive blocking pattern to close out the month and start May. This will be the biggest 

NAO drop since last October. The first two closed lows pull down cooler air the next few days

as they exit New England. The third one next week will originate further west so it

will be wet in addition to cool. I guess the six month run of the NAO failing to drop

to -1 or lower had to end sooner or later.

 

 

 

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Impressive blocking pattern to close out the month and start May. This will be the biggest 

NAO drop since last October. The first two closed lows pull down cooler air the next few days

as they exit New England. The third one next week will originate further west so it

will be wet in addition to cool. I guess the six month run of the NAO failing to drop

to -1 or lower had to end sooner or later.

 

attachicon.giff120.gif

 

attachicon.giff204.gif

 

attachicon.gifnao.sprd2.gif

Too bad it couldn't be 2-3 months ago. This pretty much guarantees a cold, rainy, and raw stretch to end the month.

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Is this a new designation? I remember getting red flag warnings but never a fire weather watch

 

..FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...

* AFFECTED AREA...THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD POSSIBLE IF IGNITION OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

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Not new, have had them forever.  Not sure about how common they are used in Eastern Region, but out here we use them all the time.

Is this a new designation? I remember getting red flag warnings but never a fire weather watch

 

..FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...

* AFFECTED AREA...THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD POSSIBLE IF IGNITION OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

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