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April 2014 discussion


Mikehobbyst

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The low here this morning was 30.  FOK down to 23.  The old adage about not setting out sensitive plants until May 15 is still a decent guideline.  There is definitely more room to take a little risk earlier these days, but we've also have mid-May frosts on several occasions over the past couple of decades.

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I don't know ...last week euro said this week was going to be a cold and rainy..so be cautious

The strong dip in the NAO to negative levels we haven't seen in since October make me believe what the models are depicting. The negativity looks to be temporary as far as I could see but it will play a significant role in our weather pattern.

I favor cooler, more unsettled weather.

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The 12z GGEM has one of the craziest blocking scenarios I've seen in a long time. Two cut off lows, one over the east coast and other over the southern plains and deep south. Paints 12"+ of rain for parts of the mid-west.

Where are you getting this from? It doesn't show anything close to 12".
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The negative NAO will probably ensure that the s/w trough amplifications are stronger in the medium to long range for the April 20th-30th period. Should see cooler than normal temps for the last 10 days overall. Thereafter, I think we flip to a very warm regime in May, potentially with our first 90s in the beginning third of the month. The cold anomalies across Canada are definitely starting to decrease, and I don't think much will be remaining about 10 days from now.

Tend to doubt we will see any 90's around here the first 10 days of May - normal to below normal temps from the partially  frozen great lakes through the northeast and northern mid atlantic

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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The 12z GFS is gorgeous for early next week. Cold temps, drizzle, periods of rain, heavy at times with a slow moving coastal just offshore.

 

Man, the GFS was spot on!

 

Not sure why people are buying what the models are spitting out a week+ in advance, especially in Spring.

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Man, the GFS was spot on!

 

Not sure why people are buying what the models are spitting out a week+ in advance, especially in Spring.

As is usualy the case, they are siding with their preference.  Yanks likes his rain, he sided with the rain ;)

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As is usualy the case, they are siding with their preference.  Yanks likes his rain, he sided with the rain ;)

 

Given the fact that our water temps have been colder than normal, this has been a pretty solid April so far.  Lots of 60s (and some 70s) and sun, not many BDCFs.

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Given the fact that our water temps have been colder than normal, this has been a pretty solid April so far. Lots of 60s (and some 70s) and sun, not many BDCFs.

It's been near to slightly above so yea it's been pretty good, a plethora of really nice days. I hate the heat so will enjoy these temps as long as possible before 90s become inevitable.

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As is usualy the case, they are siding with their preference.  Yanks likes his rain, he sided with the rain ;)

The 12z ECMWF has pretty much wall to wall rain beginning Monday morning and lasting through the end of the run. Hopefully that works out well for me at least one time this year.

 

Then after that we can move onto nicer weather for the middle of May and beyond.

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Looks like the CFS had the right idea as the current warmer departures are getting trimmed back

with cooler than normal conditions prevailing for the remainder of the month in the forecast.

We were up +3-4 degrees after the warm up over a week ago and are close to even now.

 

 

 

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Well if the 12z ECMWF operational has any clue, we rain steadily Friday night, clear out for Saturday and Sunday and then welcome in a cut off beginning Monday morning that persists at least through Friday. It won't rain constantly but it could be steadier and heavier at times and it's the type of storm that fills up the reservoirs.

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It's been near to slightly above so yea it's been pretty good, a plethora of really nice days. I hate the heat so will enjoy these temps as long as possible before 90s become inevitable.

Temp departure for month here is 0... large diurnal temp swings typical of a rather dry april have been seen... today went from 43 to 77.
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Looks like the CFS had the right idea as the current warmer departures are getting trimmed back

with cooler than normal conditions prevailing for the remainder of the month in the forecast.

We were up +3-4 degrees after the warm up over a week ago and are close to even now.

 

attachicon.gifsummaryCFSv2.NaT2mProb.201404.gif

 

attachicon.gifMonthTDeptUS.png

 

attachicon.gifM7D8.gif

 

Except it totally missed the + departures in the eastern 3rd of the country.

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Most of those plots show large cold anomalies for April in the East.  I don't think those will be realized what with 8 days remaining in the month and avg to above avg temps expected.

You did notice the GFS Ensemble mean he showed, right? 

 

Remember what I said about people leaning towards their biases... don't forget, you do have one too, warminista ;)

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You did notice the GFS Ensemble mean he showed, right? 

 

Remember what I said about people leaning towards their biases... don't forget, you do have one too, warminista ;)

 

Yep, I know!!  But, I only see below norm temps for maybe tomorrow and the 29 & 30th, and assuming we stay right around 60 and lows are above average because of clouds/precip, I don't see how we will turn to a sharply negative departure on the month.

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Yep, I know!!  But, I only see below norm temps for maybe tomorrow and the 29 & 30th, and assuming we stay right around 60 and lows are above average because of clouds/precip, I don't see how we will turn to a sharply negative departure on the month.

The majority of the CFS runs have NYC in the near normal gray. 

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The majority of the CFS runs have NYC in the near normal gray. 

 

Fair enough.  I think it was more off to our west.  Take Pittsburgh for example, the NWS has them near normal for most of the rest of April with one day probably -8 to -10 and one day +5 to +8.

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