IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The euro makes the most sense based on the confluence to the north. Maybe for most of Thursday but by Friday the WAA wins out on every model including the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 An inch of rain is a washout. interesting - so if you get an inch of rain in a 2 hour period it is a washout if it doesn't rain at all before or after ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 interesting - so if you get an inch of rain in a 2 hour period it is a washout if it doesn't rain at all before or after ? An inch of rain is usually equivalent to 10 inches of snow with 10:1 ratios, and if you get 10 inches in 2 hours thats a massive thump (just like it's a washout with rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 An inch of rain is usually equivalent to 10 inches of snow with 10:1 ratios, and if you get 10 inches in 2 hours thats a massive thump (just like it's a washout with rain) a quick hitting T-storm can drop an inch of rain in 20-30 minutes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Yeah guys, THAT was the the important part of the discussion. Smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 a quick hitting T-storm can drop an inch of rain in 20-30 minutes.... The affects are different since rain does not accumulate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The affects are different since rain does not accumulate... What would you call a flash flood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 What would you call a flash flood? Let me rephrase, rain does not stick to everything like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Yeah guys, THAT was the the important part of the discussion. Smfh But but, what you said isn't technically a washout!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Somebody put this thread out of its misery and start over, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The affects are different since rain does not accumulate... Let me rephrase, rain does not stick to everything like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 GFS shows a coastal hugger on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 GFS shows a coastal hugger on Monday Has potential on the back end similar to yesterday but currently depicted much further inland thus far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 HRRR shows showers in the area, late morning and early afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The rain later this morning looks steady and maybe even somewhat heavy at times as it moves eastward. HRRR has this pinpointed. Although clouds may thin later today, the NAM is going to end up being way too warm with its mid 60's temperature forecast from yesterday. The later part of this week looks terrible with a warm front to our south and easterly winds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The rain later this morning looks steady and maybe even somewhat heavy at times as it moves eastward. HRRR has this pinpointed. Although clouds may thin later today, the NAM is going to end up being way too warm with its mid 60's temperature forecast from yesterday. The later part of this week looks terrible with a warm front to our south and easterly winds here. Early indications look like next week may not be that stellar either, but at this time looks like there may be a couple "warmer" and nicer days in there however john.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 looks like most of the heavier rain today is going to be in central NJ and NYC metro and points east far northern NJ looks to escape http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The rain later this morning looks steady and maybe even somewhat heavy at times as it moves eastward. HRRR has this pinpointed. Although clouds may thin later today, the NAM is going to end up being way too warm with its mid 60's temperature forecast from yesterday. The later part of this week looks terrible with a warm front to our south and easterly winds here. I was just gonna post that today looks like a bust. So much for 65 and partly sunny. Looks like a few hours of rain with some late afternoon clearing if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 I was just gonna post that today looks like a bust. So much for 65 and partly sunny. Looks like a few hours of rain with some late afternoon clearing if we're lucky. The cold/raw April seemed to be in the cards for a while. With the waters so cold, backdoor fronts will find whatever opportunity they can to come through, and warm fronts will have a hard time making it through the area. Whenever you see low heights or a trough northeast of us, you know the writing is on the wall for a raw maritime airmass. This looks to be the case for quite some time unfortunately. The MJO is also in a configuration that should keep it cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The northern cut off for rain at least this morning looks to be right along Rt. 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The 12z NAM initialized without any precip over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The 12z NAM is 0.50"+ for northern New Jersey, NYC and Western Long Island for Thursday and Friday daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The 12z NAM is 0.50"+ for northern New Jersey, NYC and Western Long Island. For what day are you referring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The 12z NAM is about an additional 0.25" or so late Friday into early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 For what day are you referring? I meant to say for Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Hrrr is overdone for today. NYC wont see more then .01"-.05" and the entire shield is breaking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The overall trend today has been to make the system for the end of this week less progressive. For example on today's 12z GFS the cold front is still hung up over Ohio on Friday night while on the 00z GFS it was much drier and further east. The GFS also attempts to develop a secondary along the warm front on Friday night. If that happens we should see an enhanced period of rainfall along and north of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 The rain later this morning looks steady and maybe even somewhat heavy at times as it moves eastward. HRRR has this pinpointed. Although clouds may thin later today, the NAM is going to end up being way too warm with its mid 60's temperature forecast from yesterday. The later part of this week looks terrible with a warm front to our south and easterly winds here. Light rain here at 47F, not the upper 50s that were predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Last of the ice is gone from my pond as of today. Mixed emotions about seeing one of the more impressively cold winters of recent memory melt away, but I took my rod and reel out for the first time this season to solidify the change of seasons. The fish aren't biting as expected, but it's still a nice afternoon. Just a couple residual piles of snow around (the one at the top of my driveway has existed in some form since late January). Still hard-pressed to find much new plant growth, save the flowering bulbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 Canada is in no rush to warm up yet with an impressive snowcover departure for early April across the Northern Tier of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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