famartin Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 GFS and NAM MOS now have 32 for the park. Euro raw gets it down to 34, slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Euro minimum temp for tonight is now down to 31 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 61 was the minimum this morning in KNYC...If that holds up it will break the record of 59 set in 1896...it probably won't but this was the warmest morning on this date... 59 was the low yesterday tieing the highest minimum on record set in 1896... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Wet snow in my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 12z NAM really wants to flip to snow for a couple of hours around 03Z in NYC area. It'll be a race with the backend of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 12z NAM really wants to flip to snow for a couple of hours around 03Z in NYC area. It'll be a race with the backend of the precip. The actual front is still hung over western PA and is expected to continue to slow as it interacts with the strengthening LLJ per Mt. Holly AFD. I think we do flip to snow for a few hours before it all ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 12z NAM really wants to flip to snow for a couple of hours around 03Z in NYC area. It'll be a race with the backend of the precip. Actually there's a mighty warm layer around 750 so its probably sleet maybe ending as a few flakes. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KNYC.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 12z GFS has the 850mb freezing line east of NYC by 03z. It's also quite a bit wetter than the NAM especially as you move closer to NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 12z GFS has the 850mb freezing line east of NYC by 03z. so does the NAM, but that doesn't stop it from being sleet at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 so does the NAM, but that doesn't stop it from being sleet at that time. Well it's probably sleet in the city and snow for the NW burbs. My call is for a quick car topper with a 1-3 hour burst of moderate snow up this way and flurries south of 78 and east of the GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 RGEM ends NYC as some snowhttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE....PW VALUES ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...AND BOTH LOW- AND UPPER- LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF RAIN THIS MORNING...SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND CT...ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET THAT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE FRONTAL BAND ACROSS EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ. THE AREA WILL FILL BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS THE MAIN BAND WORKS EAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE INTERSECTING THE FRONT,,,ORIGINATING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THUS...HAVE RAISED RAINFALL TOTALS BY ABOUT A 1/4 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN LI AND MUCH OF CT...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS WEST. THE THREAT OF URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDER WITH GUSTY WIND AS LOW LEVELS WINDS ARE POTENTIALLY BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE...POTENTLY FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. GUST UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 The timing of the overcast ahead of the front couldn't have been any worse last night. We'd been dealing with some transparent high clouds all night and then the main cloud shield came in around 230 as the moon was only halfway eclipsed. I wish the high clouds stuck around for another 30 minutes...would have made for some awesome photography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Actually there's a mighty warm layer around 750 so its probably sleet maybe ending as a few flakes. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KNYC.txt Thanks for looking. I didn't have a chance to check soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Awesome training of cells right over DC, hope that happens later up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Awesome training of cells right over DC, hope that happens later up here. Heavy rain excites you, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Heavy rain excites you, doesn't it? I know I'm a rare bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Rgem has 1-3 inches for nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Rgem has 1-3 inches for nyc. That's 1-2. Probably closer to the 1 in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 euro still looks to be above freezing tonight for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 That line of storms that has been training over DC for the past hour or so is now starting to look healthier as it slowly propagates its way towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 euro still looks to be above freezing tonight for the city This is the coldest 12Z reading yet... 33. I think Central Park will reach freezing. Latest freeze since 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 This is the coldest 12Z reading yet... 33. I think Central Park will reach freezing. Latest freeze since 1980. I say 34 for central park..36 lga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 ^agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 late april frosts/freezes are not unusual right outside the metro area http://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-new-jersey-last-frost-date-map.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 It's strongly CAA driven so I think they'll hit freezing. It would be another story if they had to depend on radiational cooling. While I have strong doubts about even seeing a few snowflakes, it would be nice to see it happen in mid April given the rarity of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 It's strongly CAA driven so I think they'll hit freezing. Bingo. That's key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Freeze Warning now in NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Freeze Warning now in NYC proper. That line of storms in NW NJ is the cold front, behind that temps are dropping like a rock in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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