forkyfork Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 They must be leaning hard on the NAM. the nam has been too aggressive with radiational cooling... i remember a bunch of runs showing well below 0 temps in nyc this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 the nam has been too aggressive with radiational cooling... i remember a bunch of runs showing well below 0 temps in nyc this winter Except this isn't a radiational event, its pure advection right behind the front. So, the NAM *could* be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Except this isn't a radiational event, its pure advection right behind the front. So, the NAM *could* be right. i still don't buy it. it's so much colder than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 i still don't buy it. it's so much colder than the euro Yeah, not saying it *will* be right. Just saying it *could* be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Yeah, not saying it *will* be right. Just saying it *could* be. GFS has upper 20s now for Wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 GFS has upper 20s now for Wednesday morning Rgem as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 the latest freezing date in my lifetime is 32 on 4/17/1980...The coldest second half of April is probably 1967 with three snowfalls 4/19-24-27...Only a trace reported in KNYC but a slushy accumulation in some places on those three days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 The 12z GFS is gorgeous for early next week. Cold temps, drizzle, periods of rain, heavy at times with a slow moving coastal just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Yea upper 20s are looking possible and that could be damaging as the growth has exploded with this warm stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 61 was the minimum this morning in KNYC...If that holds up it will break the record of 59 set in 1896...it probably won't but this was the warmest morning on this date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Euro has 35, but GFS has 29 and NAM has 28 at the park. Very impressive for April 16th. It would easily be the latest freeze at the park since 1980. Before 1980, you have to go back to 1943 to find a freeze as late as April 16th. They were more common before 1943. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 61 was the minimum this morning in KNYC...If that holds up it will break the record of 59 set in 1896...it probably won't but this was the warmest morning on this date... Temps aren't supposed to drop much tonight. Should still be in the 60's at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Temps aren't supposed to drop much tonight. Should still be in the 60's at midnight If the NAM MOS guidance is right, sure. GFS MOS is a little cooler, 60 at 11PM and 59 at 2AM. Remember, the end of the climo day is actually 1AM during daylight time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Euro has 35, but GFS has 29 and NAM has 28 at the park. Very impressive for April 16th. It would easily be the latest freeze at the park since 1980. Before 1980, you have to go back to 1943 to find a freeze as late as April 16th. They were more common before 1943.looks like the euro still shows nyc staying above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 looks like the euro still shows nyc staying above freezing 8am temp is 34 degrees on the 12z euro. It's possible that it shows below 32, in between 6z and 12z. 6 hour minimum temperature maps aren't out on my source for another hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 8am temp is 34 degrees on the 12z euro. I have 35 on my source. Euro didn't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 8am temp is 34 degrees on the 12z euro. It's possible that it shows below 32, in between 6z and 12z. 6 hour minimum temperature maps aren't out on my source for another hour. 33 is 6hr min on Wxbell for NYC and EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Is it me? Or has it been downright blustery theblast 4 days? Can't recall these sustained winds for this long without actual rain.. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 i think wet ground + downslope flow will prevent knyc from hitting 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Euro sucks, NYC will drop to at least 32F. That model is so overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 33 is 6hr min on Wxbell for NYC and EWR. Thank you. So all the models are 29-33 degrees, including the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Thank you. So all the models are 29-33 degrees, including the euro. GFS and NAM MOS are both 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 How does cool, rainy weather sound for almost all of next week? 12z Euro says keep the shorts in the drawer and the jackets out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Thank you. So all the models are 29-33 degrees, including the euro. GFS and NAM MOS are both 34. GFS and NAM 2m minimum temps are 27 for NYC UKMET is 28 at 12z Wed GGEM is 32 at 12z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 GFS and NAM 2m minimum temps are 27 for NYC UKMET is 28 at 12z Wed GGEM is 32 at 12z Wed Rgem is below freezing as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 If you at look Wunderground, you can see the ECMWF has more clouds overnight Tuesday than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG AND DEEP NEUTRALLY TILTEDUPPER TROUGH TROUGH SLIDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOAPPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTING THROUGH THE NETUESDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION INTHE AFTERNOON AND CROSSING IN THE EVENING.INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITHINCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHINGCOLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH A 65 TO 75 KT LLJ AHEADOF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE MORNINGINTO AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LIKELY...HIGHESTCOAST...BUT AN INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT GUSTS MAINLY INTO THE 30S. ANYHEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TO OVERCOME THEINVERSION AND BRING A HIGHER FRACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THESURFACE.WITH GULF MOISTURE TAP...INCREASING FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MIDMORNING INTO AFTERNOON...AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AREAS OFHEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGYSECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE AFT/EVE IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLYCONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SQUALL LINE TRAVERSINGTHE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WHICH WOULD HAVEPOTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN GUSTS OF 50+ MPH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BEHANDLED BY SHORT FUSE ADVISORY/WARNING.STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUEEVENING. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY TUESDAYNIGHT IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS ATRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFOREENDING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW ZONES. WITH SHORTWAVE INSTABILITYCOMING THROUGH...A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OUTOF THE QUESTION TUE EVENING N&W OF NYC. THIS POSES POTENTIAL FORSOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUM...AND WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S SOME ICYROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY NIGHTINTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROWING FOR THE ENTIRECOASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE NJ/LOWER HUDSONVALLEY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD BE MET FORMUCH OF THIS AREA. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Methinks Upton may be underestimating the winds here on the island. In the past hour, we've had gusts up to 37 mph, and a sustained 25-30 since mid-afternoon. The flight approach path for JFK goes right over us, and I've been observing planes coming in from the east at about 1500 feet, angled at a good 35-40 degrees against the crosswinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 i'm impressed with wind potential ahead of the front tomorrow, especially if the models are too aggressive with light precip preceding the main line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 61 was the minimum this morning in KNYC...If that holds up it will break the record of 59 set in 1896...it probably won't but this was the warmest morning on this date... Tied the record, it got to 59 before 1AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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