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April 2014 discussion


Mikehobbyst

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Awesome, the Euro brings back the snowstorm for Thursday morning :lol::weenie:

 

That's the definition of a true thread the needle storm as the southern stream rides north instead of getting kicked 

out to the east. It's the kind of solution that you fear will disappear in the next few runs or at least be more suppressed.

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That's the definition of a true thread the needle storm as the southern stream rides north instead of getting kicked 

out to the east. It's the kind of solution that you fear will disappear in the next few runs or at least be more suppressed.

Luckily it's mid April and everyone's over winter. If this were January, people would get excited or they would panic. 

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Luckily it's mid April and everyone's over winter. If this were January, people would get excited or they would panic. 

 

The more suppressed ensemble mean has more of what you would expect to see in this situation.

But that OP run looks like it would be a 50 to 100 year event for so late in April so it's tough to

believe.

 

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Upton's thoughts for next week. BTW 12z ECMWF ensemble mean has over 2" of rain for most areas NW of NYC.

 

GIVE THE MORE AMPED FLOW ALOFT...HAVE REJECTED FASTER 12Z GFS
PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR MON NIGHT INTO
WED...AND SIDED MORE WITH THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS.
BEGAN WITH CHANCE POP MON NIGHT...MAINLY LATE AND FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST...THEN RAMPED UP TO LIKELY/CAT POP TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE...
WITH PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 200 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST PRECIP OVER AREAS NORTH/WEST
OF NYC...BUT EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND ANY WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MAKE THIS UNCERTAIN...AND AS WITH OUR LAST HEAVY RAIN
EVENT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COULD JUST AS EASILY OCCUR FARTHER EAST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COASTAL JET.
 

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