Juliancolton Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Windy spring thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Beginning to think NYC could miss the elusive 70F yet again in this upcoming stretch. Southerlies at the surface progged right through Monday. Could be a recipe for 70-80F in interior NJ, 65-70F in NYC and coastal NJ, and 60F or cooler on LI. Today will be a bust for highs for many coastal locations. Still in the upper 50s here at 1pm with a gusty south wind. Only 55F at Central park. If there can be any westerly component to the wind, Central Park might make it to 70, but it will be tough if winds are southerly and definitely if from SSE. I don't think anyone near the coast makes it above 55 this weekend, and it might be tough to make it much above 50 if winds are strong enough. The Euro seemed to have a particularly nasty stretch on Monday with 20+ mph onshore wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 If there can be any westerly component to the wind, Central Park might make it to 70, but it will be tough if winds are southerly and definitely if from SSE. I don't think anyone near the coast makes it above 55 this weekend, and it might be tough to make it much above 50 if winds are strong enough. The Euro seemed to have a particularly nasty stretch on Monday with 20+ mph onshore wind. Agreed ill be working the entire weekend and will not matter either way if its cool or hot to be honest. Inland areas west of NYC will have some great weather east of there just a raw and windy spring day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Made it to 66 here before wind shift to se, down to 62 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 I'm still near 50 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The 12z Euro today took a step back towards a rainier, less progressive solution for early next week by digging and amplifying the trough more Tuesday night, in fact it comes very close to closing off and cutting off like it was showing a few days ago. Whether or not you want to believe it, it does show some significant accumulations of snow just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The 12z Euro today took a step back towards a rainier, less progressive solution for early next week by digging and amplifying the trough more Tuesday night, in fact it comes very close to closing off and cutting off like it was showing a few days ago. Whether or not you want to believe it, it does show some significant accumulations of snow just inland. It would be cool to see if we can get enough of a frontal wave for at least parts of the area to see snowflakes in the air on April 16th. You would think that interior locations would have the best chance of going frozen before the precip cuts off. But the 12z Euro lingers the precip long enough for a trace down to the coast. It will be cold enough if the precip can linger into the early morning hours. The key will be getting a strong enough frontal wave like the Euro is showing. Otherwise, the precip will most likely cut off before it gets cold enough for at least a trace around NYC. I think that the last time we saw a trace from 4-16 on was 1992 and 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Hoping they're isnt too much of a cold push when i go on vacation 4/26 - 5/5. Would like to have some warmer weather then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 It would be cool to see if we can get enough of a frontal wave for at least parts of the area to see snowflakes in the air on April 16th. You would think that interior locations would have the best chance of going frozen before the precip cuts off. But the 12z Euro lingers the precip long enough for a trace down to the coast. It will be cold enough if the precip can linger into the early morning hours. The key will be getting a strong enough frontal wave like the Euro is showing. Otherwise, the precip will most likely cut off before it gets cold enough for at least a trace around NYC. I think that the last time we saw a trace from 4-16 on was 1992 and 1983. D6.gif I'm interested to see if we can have a widespread freeze out of this. A lot of plants are starting to grow now, so a freeze could be damaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 I'm still near 50 lol Man, dat south wind ripping through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 I'm interested to see if we can have a widespread freeze out of this. A lot of plants are starting to grow now, so a freeze could be damaging. Yeah, both the Euro and GFS 2m temps approach freezing in NYC. Even if we stay 33-35 it would be one of the coldest days so late in the season in over a decade. JFK made it to 34 on 4-19-01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The 4k 18z NAM has a very legitimate squall line crossing the area early tomorrow evening. Drops 0.50-0.75" over a large swath of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 The 00z GFS and GGEM dump buckets of rain over the area early next week in a relatively short period of time. Would think hydrolic issues will be their considering low FFG over NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Some snowflakes towards the end maybe early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Some snowflakes towards the end maybe early next week? F THAT.. sick of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Guidance has gotten warmer today. With showers and t-storms holding until early this evening. The 6z 4km NAM has max of 72 at NYC. 7z HRRR max at 79 a KNYC (likely overdone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 The HRRR has newark getting to 80 degrees this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 The HRRR has newark getting to 80 degrees this afternoon. temp13.gif You can see the negative effects of the seabreeze influence as well. Where i am in SW suffolk its 50's and in NYC its in the 70's. really impressive difference there, be interesting later on in the afternoon how the squall line may develop and if it can hold its potency all the way to coastal locals as well john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 It would be cool to see if we can get enough of a frontal wave for at least parts of the area to see snowflakes in the air on April 16th. You would think that interior locations would have the best chance of going frozen before the precip cuts off. But the 12z Euro lingers the precip long enough for a trace down to the coast. It will be cold enough if the precip can linger into the early morning hours. The key will be getting a strong enough frontal wave like the Euro is showing. Otherwise, the precip will most likely cut off before it gets cold enough for at least a trace around NYC. I think that the last time we saw a trace from 4-16 on was 1992 and 1983. Central Park had a trace on 4/18/1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Central Park had a trace on 4/18/1997. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 You can see the negative effects of the seabreeze influence as well. Where i am in SW suffolk its 50's and in NYC its in the 70's. really impressive difference there, be interesting later on in the afternoon how the squall line may develop and if it can hold its potency all the way to coastal locals as well john The clouds currently streaming from southwest to northeast better move out of the picture fast if anybody wants to come remotely close to what the short term models are advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 The clouds currently streaming from southwest to northeast better move out of the picture fast if anybody wants to come remotely close to what the short term models are advertising. The 06z 4k NAM has quite the hefty squall line crossing the area tonight, what about the other short term high res models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 The 06z 4k NAM has quite the hefty squall line crossing the area tonight, what about the other short term high res models? If you're talking about thunderstorm potential I think it is fairly limited, but there could be a line of heavy rain which shifts eastward. I'm talking about temperatures in that previous post...the mid 70's aren't happening unless the clouds start breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 The clouds currently streaming from southwest to northeast better move out of the picture fast if anybody wants to come remotely close to what the short term models are advertising. Yeah, I'm skeptical too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Yeah, I'm skeptical too. The new HRRR is still warm (80 at newark) but seems to be completely whiffing on the cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Looking at the latest visible satellite loop it would appear that the cloud deck isn't going to be moving out anytime soon. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 The new HRRR is still warm (80 at newark) but seems to be completely whiffing on the cloud cover. 70 is looks more dobable. The clouds appear thin enough for some sunshine to filter through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Already mid 60s...79 probably not but I think 70s are a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 10am temps: NYC 62LGA 61JFK 60EWR 63LDJ 64TEB 63 Clouds are thinning out enough for some sunshine. I think these stations (expect maybe JFK) will see lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 I think NYC's best shot at 70 degrees is either today or tomorrow (and that's not a lock). 00z ECMWF indicates a fairly strong southerly wind both Sunday and Monday for NYC eastward and coastal NJ. Even with warm 850's, I can't see > 70F for those locations. 00z ECMWF 10m winds valid 18z Sunday. Note the SLY winds, almost SSE from NYC/coastal NJ eastward. Even stronger SLY wind on Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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