Weathergun Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The 0z Euro has 70F+ up to CNJ, ahead of the cold front tomorrow. It's also weaker and faster with the frontal wave tomorrow night. About .25" - .50" rainfall for most. This is a trend with this wave on most of the models. Saturday has more sunshine with west winds, with upper 60s to near 70, away from the immediate coast. On Sunday, the Euro has more SSE winds ahead of the warm front over Western NJ. With us being more under the influence of high pressure to the northeast. So many coastal locations will probably in 50s and 60s. While inland areas reach the 70s. On Monday, we'll be more under in the influence of the trough/cold front approaching from the west and winds turn more S-SSW. 70s should more widespread into NE NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 HPC is still highlighting NNJ for a slight risk of excessive rainfall tomorrow. Look at how low the 6 hour FFG is over NNJ and most of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Widespread 70's becoming likely on Sunday with the potential for 75+ given the 11-12c 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Made it down to 32 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Widespread 70's becoming likely on Sunday with the potential for 75+ given the 11-12c 850 temps Yeah Sunday should be the nicest day of the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 HPC is still highlighting NNJ for a slight risk of excessive rainfall tomorrow. I understand the low FFG hence the flood risk but I can't understand where they are getting those amounts. I can't find one recent model even remotely in the ballpark of 1.19" liquid. The Euro has .25 for most of the area and the high resolution nam has about .4 in the wettest spots, only .57 in Northeast PA where the lift is maximized. This is a front that is washing out over the area while a weak disturbance rides along it...not a big rain producer unless the setup changes from what is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Widespread 70's becoming likely on Sunday with the potential for 75+ given the 11-12c 850 temps Too bad it has to be on a S/SSE wind. Coastal areas will likely stay in the 50s under that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 I understand the low FFG hence the flood risk but I can't understand where they are getting those amounts. I can't find one recent model even remotely in the ballpark of 1.19" liquid. The Euro has .25 for most of the area and the high resolution nam has about .4 in the wettest spots, only .57 in Northeast PA where the lift is maximized. This is a front that is washing out over the area while a weak disturbance rides along it...not a big rain producer unless the setup changes from what is currently modeled. Agreed, all I can say is that the 06z 4k NAM had a marginally intense area of convection that crosses the area from about 21z Friday through 04z Saturday. It had a narrow patch of 0.75"+ right over the I-78 corridor and was quite a bit wetter than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Yeah Sunday should be the nicest day of the year so far. Where on this map is it SE winds? I see SSW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Be careful with the 6z 84hr NAM. 0z Euro has SSE winds on Sunday, keeping coastal locations cooler. Euro also only has 850mb 8C temps Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Be careful with the 6z 84hr NAM. 0z Euro has SSE winds on Sunday, keeping coastal locations cooler. Euro also only has 850mb 8C temps Sunday. It's just timing. 6 hours later at 8pm on Sunday, the 0z euro has south winds as well. NAM switches to SSW winds 6 hours earlier. And that's the only difference: 0z Euro at 8pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Offshore winds always bring some pretty big temp differences. Would not be shocked at all if NYC on west was 70 or higher while east of NYC its in the upper 40's to mid 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Even NYC will struggle to get out of the upper 60's on Sunday and Monday if the Euro SSE flow both days verifies. The seabreeze should really be crankin on Monday with winds gusting over 30 mph along the South Shore and plenty of blowing sand off the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Even NYC will struggle to get out of the upper 60's on Sunday and Monday if the Euro SSE flow both days verifies. The Ambrose Jet should really be crankin on Monday with winds gusting over 30 mph along the South Shore and plenty of blowing sand off the beach. Screen shot 2014-04-10 at 9.26.34 AM.png Screen shot 2014-04-10 at 9.27.04 AM.png The wind also looks pretty strong, over 20mph for the immediate coastal areas. It could be quite a raw, windy day on Sunday and maybe Monday there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Coastal areas always struggle warming up in early to mid April while inland spots can easily torch. Actually they probably struggle as late as late May or early June sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Beautiful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The 12z 4k NAM has what translates to a decent squall line crossing the area tomorrow between 22z and 03z. It's not an incredible fast mover and I suppose it could drop a quick inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Beautiful . 75 at EWR and 52 at JFK. Mega ouch. All of Long Island and much of NYC looks to be in the low 60s at best on that map. If anything, I think it might be in the 40s at the shore if the south winds are strong enough. The waters are still quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The wind also looks pretty strong, over 20mph for the immediate coastal areas. It could be quite a raw, windy day on Sunday and maybe Monday there. The winds should stay strong and pick up right into Tuesday as the gradient tightens . The big Newfoundland block should slow the front to a crawl with plenty of subtropical moisture streaming north for heavy rain potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The Euro having the high anchored so far north Sunday into Monday will probably mean that there will be enough of S or SSE wind component for the warmest temperatures to remain over NJ with cooler readings near the coast. GZ_PN_096_0000.gif GZ_PN_120_0000.gif yes - except within 10 miles of the ocean from monmouth county and points south - for instance could be 70 in Lakehurst and 55 in Pt. Pleasant Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 75 at EWR and 52 at JFK. Mega ouch. All of Long Island and much of NYC looks to be in the low 60s at best on that map. If anything, I think it might be in the 40s at the shore if the south winds are strong enough. The waters are still quite cold. Jump on the Belt @ JFK , head over the Verrazano and you jump 15 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 46 right now. Beautiful day on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 46 right now. Beautiful day on tap. 59 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Big brush fire in Edison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Big brush fire in Edison Oh really? Whereabout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Oh really? Whereabout? http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=news/local/new_jersey&id=9499018 http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2014/04/fast-moving_brush_fire_spreads_across_raritan_center_in_edison.html http://newjersey.news12.com/news/firefighters-battle-brush-fire-in-edison-1.7665944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Beginning to think NYC could miss the elusive 70F yet again in this upcoming stretch. Southerlies at the surface progged right through Monday. Could be a recipe for 70-80F in interior NJ, 65-70F in NYC and coastal NJ, and 60F or cooler on LI. Today will be a bust for highs for many coastal locations. Still in the upper 50s here at 1pm with a gusty south wind. Only 55F at Central park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Sick of this 50's.. I need 70's. It looks like its going to stay colder for the next 10 days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Nice low to mid 60s here, beautiful day, not too far from the brush fire. Could see the smoke driving later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Looks like coastal areas may not be seeing 70's until we start seeing a more noticable jump in SST's. if theres any southerly-easterly fetch this time of year and with the current water temps it will substantially knock down any warm temps on the immediate coast while inland areas can be 10-15+ degrees higher Wouldnt be shocked if during the weekend and into monday most areas on LI save for the north shore struggle to reach the 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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