pazzo83 Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 I agree with that. Just saying that as its modeled currently it doesn't look too dramatic. We'll see if it trends stronger. Looks like Upton is picking up on a pretty fierce BDCF Sunday into Sunday night: Sunday Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below. Sunday Night Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Here was the rain with the front on Friday for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 sunday will be worst along the south shore according to the euro/ens mean. inland areas will go above 60 until the likely sea breeze hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 The 12z Euro has scattered activity all day on Friday before steadier rain moves in overnight into Saturday morning. 0.50"+ of rain for the event with over an inch in SE PA. Thanks.. should be able to get it in then... Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Here was the rain with the front on Friday for the Euro. ecmwf_tprecip_neng_23.png Forgive me..learning here. . What does the yellow in Sussex County mean? I would imagine green and dark green to the north is heavy rain..? Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Forgive me..learning here. . What does the yellow in Sussex County mean? I would imagine green and dark green to the north is heavy rain..? Sent from my SCH-I545 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 1"+ Um.. that's a lot of rain.. but I guess the question I should have asked is when is that forcasted for? Or is that overall? Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Um.. that's a lot of rain.. but I guess the question I should have asked is when is that forcasted for? Or is that overall? Sent from my SCH-I545 That's actually for the week going through Monday but I think most falls Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 That graphic is for the rain on Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 The 18z GFS continues to show the potential next week for excessive rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 You need to seek professional help ASAP. He needs to move to Antarctica. . Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Yet another -EPO Arctic high and cold front on tap for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 sunday will be worst along the south shore according to the euro/ens mean. inland areas will go above 60 until the likely sea breeze hits Yeah, models backed off on the marine influence overnight. Check out what's on tap for early next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 The 0z Euro has a drier FROPA on Friday. High temps near 70 degrees for NE NJ/NYC, with westerly winds. More rain comes Friday night and early Saturday morning, with wave along the front. But mostly passes to the north of NYC. (.50"+ NW of I-287), Rest of Saturday clears out and temps are middle to upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 The 0z Euro has a drier FROPA on Friday. High temps near 70 degrees for NE NJ/NYC, with westerly winds. More rain comes Friday night and early Saturday morning, with wave along the front. But mostly passes to the north of NYC. (.50"+ NW of I-287), Rest of Saturday clears out and temps are middle to upper 60s. Mt holly and upton had both mentioned at times this week that the actual frontal passage friday might be drier than shown, but that little wave would ride the front friday night. Would be nice to get that timing so we can have a few nice days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 HPC has the area near the slight risk outlook zone for excessive rainfall on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 This is the 12z GFS today on Sunday: Backdoor front has been completely taken out of the picture now for Sunday afternoon. Like I was thinking, the lack of a more pronounced trough to our northeast or surface high over New England with favorable marine flow...will lead to the warmer air winning out with the sly flow ahead of the system to our northwest. Unless the models change dramatically I think the BDCF stays away, or maybe comes very weak Sunday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 HPC has the area near the slight risk outlook zone for excessive rainfall on Friday. This looks like a progressive rainfall since the disturbance travels east rather quickly and the forcing along the front washes out. It'll rain for a period of time from Friday afternoon into Saturday but the whole "stalled front" big rain scenario is no longer showing up on any models. Saturday-Monday look like 60's to 70's with lots of sun. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Backdoor front has been completely taken out of the picture now for Sunday afternoon. Like I was thinking, the lack of a more pronounced trough to our northeast or surface high over New England with favorable marine flow...will lead to the warmer air winning out with the sly flow ahead of the system to our northwest. Unless the models change dramatically I think the BDCF stays away, or maybe comes very weak Sunday Night. The troughing is much weaker northeast of us on Sunday now and there's no high. That should keep the flow westerly and the temps warm. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 The 12z GFS MOS highs for Sunday: NYC 73 EWR 74 LGA 71 JFK 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 The Euro is 0.50"+ for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 The 12z GFS MOS highs for Sunday: NYC 73 EWR 74 LGA 71 JFK 67 Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Awesome Monday should be warm as well, backdoor front looks weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 HPC going with 1"+ of rain for most of the area on Friday with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 The models are having a difficult time nailing down the axis of steadiest rainfall for Friday/Saturday with large run to run shifts on most of the guidance. The NAM has been particularly erratic. For example at 12z the NAM had the heaviest rainfall over our northern areas. The 18z NAM now has the heaviest/steadiest rainfall from I-80 and points south. The 06z NAM was somewhere in the middle and the 00z NAM had less than a half inch for everyone which was way to dry. The 12z ECMWF gives pretty much everyone 0.50"+ with pockets of 0.75"+ while the 00z ECMWF kept all the steady rain into upstate NY. The 00z GGEM was ~0.25" area wide while the 12z GGEM is about the same, only further south with all of the precip. The SREF are not that enthused and looking at the individual members, most of them are quite dry, which is a tad concerning. The mean seems to be getting skewed by 2 or 3 juiced members. HPC likes 1"+ for most of the area and I'm in solid agreement. The 12z GFS shows PWAT's approaching 1.00"+ in spots on Friday evening. It will come down to the placement of the LLJ. By Saturday morning we should be in the unfavorable left exit region of the jet streak so our window of heavy rain looks to be Friday evening and into early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Today two of the trees in my yard budded. A very beautiful sight. Soon the winter will be a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 The Euro having the high anchored so far north Sunday into Monday will probably mean that there will be enough of S or SSE wind component for the warmest temperatures to remain over NJ with cooler readings near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Finally seeing more budding, it's taken longer than past years, will see much more progression over next few days especially if we see those 70s. We'll take two steps forward, one step back with the cool shot early next week into midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 April max/min averages... the long term average max is 81 and the min is 31...so far 2014 is 67/36...decade........ave max ave min.1870's...............na........na........1880's............77.6.......27.4.....1890's............79.1.......28.2.....1900's............77.7.......30.4.....1910's............79.6.......29.3.....1920's............82.6.......28.3.....1930's............79.0.......31.9.....1940's............79.7.......31.5.....1950's............81.1.......31.7.....1960's............82.9.......31.8.....1970's............84.2.......29.1.....1980's............79.9.......31.8.....1990's............81.3.......32.4.....2000's............86.3.......32.0.....2010's............85.3.......35.6..... 2014..............67.0.......36.0 1870-2009..............80.8.......30.4.....1980-2009..............82.5.......32.1..... The highest max for April is 96 set in 2002 and 1976...The record low min. is 12 set in 1923...The coldest max is 67 set in 1940 and warmest min is 42 set in 1878... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Welcome to spring boys....enjoy the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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