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April 2014 discussion


Mikehobbyst

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I agree with that. Just saying that as its modeled currently it doesn't look too dramatic. 

 

We'll see if it trends stronger. 

 

Looks like Upton is picking up on a pretty fierce BDCF Sunday into Sunday night:

 

 

Sunday

Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below.
 
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below.
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The 0z Euro has a drier FROPA on Friday. High temps near 70 degrees for NE NJ/NYC, with westerly winds. More rain comes Friday night and early Saturday morning, with wave along the front. But mostly passes to the north of NYC. (.50"+ NW of I-287), Rest of Saturday clears out and temps are middle to upper 60s.

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The 0z Euro has a drier FROPA on Friday. High temps near 70 degrees for NE NJ/NYC, with westerly winds. More rain comes Friday night and early Saturday morning, with wave along the front. But mostly passes to the north of NYC. (.50"+ NW of I-287), Rest of Saturday clears out and temps are middle to upper 60s.

Mt holly and upton had both mentioned at times this week that the actual frontal passage friday might be drier than shown, but that little wave would ride the front friday night. Would be nice to get that timing so we can have a few nice days in a row.

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This is the 12z GFS today on Sunday:

 

 

Backdoor front has been completely taken out of the picture now for Sunday afternoon. Like I was thinking, the lack of a more pronounced trough to our northeast or surface high over New England with favorable marine flow...will lead to the warmer air winning out with the sly flow ahead of the system to our northwest. 

 

Unless the models change dramatically I think the BDCF stays away, or maybe comes very weak Sunday Night.

 

gfsNE_sfc_temp_102.gif

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HPC has the area near the slight risk outlook zone for excessive rainfall on Friday.

 

 

This looks like a progressive rainfall since the disturbance travels east rather quickly and the forcing along the front washes out. It'll rain for a period of time from Friday afternoon into Saturday but the whole "stalled front" big rain scenario is no longer showing up on any models. 

 

Saturday-Monday look like 60's to 70's with lots of sun. 

 

Bring it. 

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Backdoor front has been completely taken out of the picture now for Sunday afternoon. Like I was thinking, the lack of a more pronounced trough to our northeast or surface high over New England with favorable marine flow...will lead to the warmer air winning out with the sly flow ahead of the system to our northwest. 

 

Unless the models change dramatically I think the BDCF stays away, or maybe comes very weak Sunday Night.

 

gfsNE_sfc_temp_102.gif

The troughing is much weaker northeast of us on Sunday now and there's no high. That should keep the flow westerly and the temps warm. Good news.

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The models are having a difficult time nailing down the axis of steadiest rainfall for Friday/Saturday with large run to run shifts on most of the guidance. The NAM has been particularly erratic. For example at 12z the NAM had the heaviest rainfall over our northern areas. The 18z NAM now has the heaviest/steadiest rainfall from I-80 and points south. The 06z NAM was somewhere in the middle and the 00z NAM had less than a half inch for everyone which was way to dry. The 12z ECMWF gives pretty much everyone 0.50"+ with pockets of 0.75"+ while the 00z ECMWF kept all the steady rain into upstate NY. The 00z GGEM was ~0.25" area wide while the 12z GGEM is about the same, only further south with all of the precip. The SREF are not that enthused and looking at the individual members, most of them are quite dry, which is a tad concerning. The mean seems to be getting skewed by 2 or 3 juiced members. HPC likes 1"+ for most of the area and I'm in solid agreement.

 

The 12z GFS shows PWAT's approaching 1.00"+ in spots on Friday evening.

 

gfs_namer_060_850_pw_ht.gif

 

It will come down to the placement of the LLJ. By Saturday morning we should be in the unfavorable left exit region of the jet streak so our window of heavy rain looks to be Friday evening and into early Saturday morning.

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The Euro having the high anchored so far north Sunday into Monday will probably

mean that there will be enough of S or SSE wind component for the warmest temperatures

to remain over NJ with cooler readings near the coast.

 

 

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April max/min averages...

the long term average max is 81 and the min is 31...so far 2014 is 67/36...
decade........ave max ave min.
1870's...............na........na........
1880's............77.6.......27.4.....
1890's............79.1.......28.2.....
1900's............77.7.......30.4.....
1910's............79.6.......29.3.....
1920's............82.6.......28.3.....
1930's............79.0.......31.9.....
1940's............79.7.......31.5.....
1950's............81.1.......31.7.....
1960's............82.9.......31.8.....
1970's............84.2.......29.1.....
1980's............79.9.......31.8.....
1990's............81.3.......32.4.....
2000's............86.3.......32.0.....
2010's............85.3.......35.6.....

 

2014..............67.0.......36.0

1870-
2009..............80.8.......30.4.....
1980-
2009..............82.5.......32.1.....

The highest max for April is 96 set in 2002 and 1976...The record low min. is 12 set in 1923...The coldest max is 67 set in 1940 and warmest min is 42 set in 1878...

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