NEG NAO Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 On 3/31/2014 at 8:17 PM, Snow88 said: April 7-10 well it shows the storm on the 18Z GFS - this is the April 9 , 1996 storm - this could end up being an analog for next week http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/09-Apr-96-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Folks locally have been hyping nice weather today and tomorrow, and when you're facing the sun it is rather pleasant out, but 48F with a breezy north wind is not that great. Clouds racing in from the west should be here by late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Serious discussion - Most of the area rivers are high and with the rain coming later this week, this weekend and again next week we could be dealing with significant hydrology issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Holy SWFE on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 4:15 PM, YanksFan27 said: Holy SWFE on the 12z GFS. GFS tries to develop 2 lows. First one goes right on top of us while the 2nd one fizzles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 4:15 PM, YanksFan27 said: Holy SWFE on the 12z GFS. for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 4:28 PM, Snow88 said: GFS tries to develop 2 lows. First one goes right on top of us while the 2nd one fizzles out. Look at the strengthening 250mb jet streak, moisture feed direct from the gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain signal if we can get a more favorable track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 4:15 PM, YanksFan27 said: Holy SWFE on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 4:40 PM, NEG NAO said: It's not a snowstorm. And I'm not saying it will be. By SWFE I'm referring to the potential for lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 4:40 PM, YanksFan27 said: Look at the strengthening 250mb jet streak, moisture feed direct from the gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain signal if we can get a more favorable track of the low. Agree. If the 2nd low didn't fizzle out, that would have been a nice storm for the coast. ( Rain. maybe snow but a lot of rain ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 The 12z GFS is ~1.25" of rain this weekend west of the city and ~1.00" for the city and western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 4:49 PM, YanksFan27 said: The 12z GFS is ~1.25" of rain this weekend west of the city and ~1.00" for the city and western LI. Its like less than a tenth this weekend at hpn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:11 PM, BxEngine said: Its like less than a tenth this weekend at hpn. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:11 PM, BxEngine said: Its like less than a tenth this weekend at hpn.west is the new south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:20 PM, YanksFan27 said: How so? Most of that falls thursday evening...not sure how posting a 120 hr qpf map helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:22 PM, BxEngine said: Most of that falls thursday evening...not sure how posting a 120 hr qpf map helps. c'mon... he's a GoodPosterTM! we need his pbp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:22 PM, forkyfork said: west is the new south and thursday is the new saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:24 PM, forkyfork said: and thursday is the new saturday Thats what the college bros say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:22 PM, BxEngine said: Most of that falls thursday evening...not sure how posting a 120 hr qpf map helps. Why are all my posts nit picked? I was using the end of this week into this weekend as a generalization for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:28 PM, YanksFan27 said: Why are all my posts nit picked? I was using the end of this week into this weekend as a generalization for this weekend. Its not nitpicking, its fixing an inaccuracy. Thurs night into friday morning is not the weekend...posting that the weekend was a washout was incredibly inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:30 PM, BxEngine said: Its not nitpicking, its fixing an inaccuracy. Thurs night into friday morning is not the weekend...posting that the weekend was a washout was incredibly inaccurate. Where did I say that it was a washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:31 PM, YanksFan27 said: Where did I say that it was a washout? An inch of rain is a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:32 PM, BxEngine said: An inch of rain is a washout. The point is that if any other poster had made that generalization you would have never said anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:33 PM, YanksFan27 said: The point is that if any other poster had made that generalization you would have never said anything... You didnt make a generalization, you posted something woefully incorrect. The world isnt out to get you, this is a weather forum, posting that a model shows rain this weekend when it does no such thing is ridiculous. If you cant handle having posts corrected, check the info first. And huge lol at me caring who posted the wrong data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Weekend is mostly dry. Total precip from Friday 8am to Monday 8am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 that thursday evening rain event looks bogus actually. confluence is close by and the euro is much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:43 PM, forkyfork said: that thursday evening rain event looks bogus actually. confluence is close by and the euro is much drier The 12z GGEM is ~.75" and the 12z ECMWF isn't out that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:43 PM, forkyfork said: that thursday evening rain event looks bogus actually. confluence is close by and the euro is much drier 12z Euro agrees with this thinking. Confluence kills any real rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 6:06 PM, ag3 said: 12z Euro agrees with this thinking. Confluence kills any real rain. Look at the differences between the GFS and the Euro for this time frame. The Euro and GFS both develop a weak wave of low pressure along the warm front, the Euro is just a tad weaker and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 On 4/1/2014 at 5:24 PM, forkyfork said: and thursday is the new saturday I'm on board with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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