IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 it would be different if this thread had substance other than blanket postings of model images. nobody's talking about the mechanisms that will produce precip, no soundings, no pwat discussion, none of that The right exit region of the 500mb/200mb jet pass just south of Long Island on the 12z GFS. PWAT's increase to between 1.0 and 1.5 on Long Island Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Hes not bitching his point is warranted. That would really make this more of an educational and constructive thread. Model runs are great as they do show the outcome but do not show the true inner workings of how it occurs besides a LP with moisture soaking our area. I agree with forky here, im trying to learn and the more i see more advanced forecasting tools and learn about them the better of i and some amatuers on here will be. Also referencing where you can find them would further add to the value of discussion If you look in the NE forum, there's a technical thread for some of the threats...he should start that here then, most of the membership here is casual/hobbyists/weenies, you're not going to get that in 99% of the the threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 If you look in the NE forum, there's a technical thread for some of the threats...he should start that here then, most of the membership here is casual/hobbyists/weenies, you're not going to get that in 99% of the the threads. Why would he do that if he thinks its just a boring rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Why would he do that if he thinks its just a boring rainstorm? then the alternative is to do what I initially suggested, ignore the thread. Post in another thread or somewhere else altogether. Why should someone else be discouraged from talking about a potential rain event on a weatherboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The 12z GGEM is 2-2.5" of rain area wide. It has an 80kt+ 500mb jet brushing Sandy Hook at hour 75 right as the heaviest rain is falling. Dew Points soar to the mid 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 it would be different if this thread had substance other than blanket postings of model images. nobody's talking about the mechanisms that will produce precip, no soundings, no pwat discussion, none of that Doctor Croft is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 it would be different if this thread had substance other than blanket postings of model images. nobody's talking about the mechanisms that will produce precip, no soundings, no pwat discussion, none of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 it would be different if this thread had substance other than blanket postings of model images. nobody's talking about the mechanisms that will produce precip, no soundings, no pwat discussion, none of that That's the job of Mets. So do it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is a tick more amplified through hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 1"+ of rain through hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The 12z GFS has 40-50kt for LLJ for ISP with PWATs close to 1.25". Also some steep low-level lapse rates. Not only would that support heavy rainfall for Long Island Saturday night into Sunday. But winds could gust to 45mph on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Going to be a very wet run, ~1.00" in six hours over NNJ and NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 This run is actually less progressive so far than 00z. The low is about 75 miles further NW at hour 78 than it's 00z placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 12z Euro lingers rain well into Monday, especially east of NYC. 2.5-3.00" area wide. Focuses the heaviest rainfall over NNJ and New England which makes more sense. Pretty confident now on a widespread 2-3" rainfall with localized amounts 3.00"+. This model very rarely over forecasts precipitation amounts at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 12z Euro lingers rain well into Monday, especially east of NYC. 2.5-3.00" area wide. Focuses the heaviest rainfall over NNJ and New England which makes more sense. Pretty confident now on a widespread 2-3" rainfall with localized amounts 3.00"+. This model very rarely over forecasts precipitation amounts at this range. It would only be the third time NYC got 2" or more of rain since last June as heavy rainstorms have been a novelty over the past year or so. That's a very nice closed low overruning event that the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Euro actually has sleet/snow/mix while the cutoff occludes on Monday. For NYC and LI. I'll believe that when I see it falling from the sky. It's probably just spotty cold rain on Monday morning and perhaps a few flurries. The big story will be the potentially excessive rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 It would only be the third time NYC got 2" or more of rain since last June as heavy rainstorms have been a novelty over the past year or so. That's a very nice closed low overruning event that the Euro is showing. A progressive pattern will do that. Most of what we had last summer was very convective in nature. Also, we didn't have any tropical remnants to deal with that I can think of. Large synoptic rainfall events tend to occur during the early Spring and late Fall around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 LLJ, convergence looks pretty much same. But the 200mb and 500mb jet streaks positioned more favorably on the 12z Euro than on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Solid consensus is building for 1.50"-3" rainfall areawide. Monday is the wild card and models are handling it differently with each run, as they usually do with cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 If you are going to do PBP, then you have to recite what the model has. Not what you think it should have. Looking at soundings, the euro is a sleet/snow mix for the COAST as the cutoff spins to the east. Also, 2"-3" of rain is not a big story. It's a normal spring rainfall. It's a bit more than normal rainfall but I agree that it's not anything crazy or even too notable. Once you get to 4"+ widespread than it becomes more problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 If you are going to do PBP, then you have to recite what the model has. Not what you think it should have. Looking at soundings, the euro is a sleet/snow mix for the COAST as the cutoff spins to the east. Also, 2"-3" of rain is not a big story. It's a normal spring rainfall. Agree to disagree, at hour 96 the surface freezing line is well upstate. Believe what you want to believe, this is as precip is shutting off. This is meteorology rather than modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 It's a bit more than normal rainfall but I agree that it's not anything crazy or even too notable. Once you get to 4"+ widespread than it becomes more problematic. I picked a location near you... People don't realize how much flooding a fast 2-3" of rain can cause on the more flashy rivers in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 12z Euro lingers rain well into Monday, especially east of NYC. 2.5-3.00" area wide. Focuses the heaviest rainfall over NNJ and New England which makes more sense. Pretty confident now on a widespread 2-3" rainfall with localized amounts 3.00"+. This model very rarely over forecasts precipitation amounts at this range. careful. we're in a dry pattern and the Euro had a storm last October that showed several runs of 2+ and we ended up with nothing. I'd wait another day before buying into the super wet solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Agree to disagree, at hour 96 the surface freezing line is well upstate. Believe what you want to believe, this is as precip is shutting off. This is meteorology rather than modelology. Precip isn't shutting off at hour 96. At least not for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Precip isn't shutting off at hour 96. At least not for the coast. The low is occluding by that hour, it's going to be just spotty showers by then. The smoothed out QPF fields are deceiving. 2-3" of rain may not mean anything for you since you don't live near a river. For those that do, it's a completely different ball game. Right now we're right on the verge between something that would cause minor nuisance flooding and something more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Precip isn't shutting off at hour 96. At least not for the coast. BDR: MON 12Z 31-MAR -1.2 1008 93 99 0.24 551 545 MON 18Z 31-MAR -0.3 1011 89 86 0.28 554 545 TUE 00Z 01-APR -1.9 1014 89 83 0.15 557 546 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 careful. we're in a dry pattern and the Euro had a storm last October that showed several runs of 2+ and we ended up with nothing. I'd wait another day before buying into the super wet solutions The fact that we've been in an overly dry pattern does cause hesitation but you have a very favorable setup here for synoptic heavy rainfall. The heaviest rainfall will be on the nose of the 500mb jet as it passes right along the NJ shore and northward up into New England. The models are still waffling with the exact placement of this feature. The GFS/GGEM/Euro however have all shifted this slightly west so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The low is occluding by that hour, it's going to be just spotty showers by then. The smoothed out QPF fields are deceiving. 2-3" of rain may not mean anything for you since you don't live near a river. For those that do, it's a completely different ball game. Right now we're right on the verge between something that would cause minor nuisance flooding and something more significant. Flash flood guidance for much of NE PA is 2" in 12 hours. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=FFG&issuedby=PA2 2-3" of rain over a weekend won't cause any major problems here. We have been dry all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 BDR: MON 12Z 31-MAR -1.2 1008 93 99 0.24 551 545 MON 18Z 31-MAR -0.3 1011 89 86 0.28 554 545 TUE 00Z 01-APR -1.9 1014 89 83 0.15 557 546 What does it show for surface temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 What a deceiving month this could end up, above normal precip with well below normal temps. You would think we've seen significant snowfall if that's all you had to go off of yet it's been almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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