Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 You should probably wait for the rest of the 12z runs before making a statement like that. Both the SREF's and 12z NAM have increased QPF totals today. Everything he said is correct. The NAM might have gotten wetter but is still nothing like the euro. And 1-2" would not be a huge deal especially if its spread out over 36-48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Everything he said is correct. The NAM might have gotten wetter but is still nothing like the euro. And 1-2" would not be a huge deal especially if its spread out over 36-48 hours The 12z NAM has all of the rain falling in less than 12 hours, or at least most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 As of now, it looks like 1-2" of rain.....nothing extreme. There's a chance that it could be a bit more but at this point, 1-2" would be significant but not a huge deal Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 At hour 48 the 12z GFS is more amped up than the 00z ECMWF at the same hour. Don't expect this run to be drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The pattern is still more progressive on the GFS than the Euro but it looks like it will be cutting off the low never the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Yup, almost a total cave this run by the GFS towards a ECMWF solution. If this was a snowstorm the board would be crashing right about now. Lingers precipitation well into Sunday night. Go against the Euro inside of 4 days at your own peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The low's track seems to take a favorable route for heavy rain near the coast this time as opposed to well inland like these situations usually favor. We'll have to see how this trends over the next day or so. If the rain trains over one area as models seem to show could be likely, there could be some heavy amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Yup, almost a total cave this run by the GFS towards a ECMWF solution. If this was a snowstorm the board would be crashing right about now. Lingers precipitation well into Sunday night. Go against the Euro inside of 4 days at your own peril. Looks like a washout weekend currently but im still focusing on where the axis of the heavy rain will be. The jackpots of 3"+ i feel will be west of NYC and up to LHV as we said this morning yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The low's track seems to take a favorable route for heavy rain near the coast this time as opposed to well inland like these situations usually favor. We'll have to see how this trends over the next day or so. If the rain trains over one area as models seem to show could be likely, there could be some heavy amounts.At this time yes it would favor coastal regions but id still be betting on inland areas. We'll get heavy amounts of 1"+ plus but the setup IMO is a NYC N&W event. We'll get our rainfall in embedded heavier showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The low's track seems to take a favorable route for heavy rain near the coast this time as opposed to well inland like these situations usually favor. We'll have to see how this trends over the next day or so. If the rain trains over one area as models seem to show could be likely, there could be some heavy amounts. This run of the GFS caved to the Euro. It cuts off the low and lingers the 500mb center over central PA before slowly meandering off the coast. This run of the GFS is 5"+ of rain for a large swath of SNE and SW towards the twin forks. The heaviest axis of rain is a close miss. It still has rain wrapping up on Monday morning while the 00z GFS was dry by Sunday morning. 00z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 omg, a cold spring rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Looks like a washout weekend currently but im still focusing on where the axis of the heavy rain will be. The jackpots of 3"+ i feel will be west of NYC and up to LHV as we said this morning yanks Historically these events JP areas just NW of I-95 which is good for me, especially since I love big rain storms and most people here would rather miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Honestly, I wouldn't mind a nice weekend rainstorm to relax. This gfs runs soaks my area in sne. Big rains seem on tap for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 omg, a cold spring rainstorm yeah imagine that, talking about weather on a weather board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 So as the GFS moves towards the GGEM/Euro the GEM now moves towards the old GFS runs? FYI the GEM does basically close off the low but it pushed it way up into NRN New England vs. moving it east off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 yeah imagine that, talking about weather on a weather board!it's like going to a cuisine forum and talking about mcdonald's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Wow, the GFS has now over 3 inches of rain. Matches the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 it's like going to a cuisine forum and talking about mcdonald's There isn't exactly much else to talk about in the doldrums of early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Wow, the GFS has now over 3 inches of rain. Matches the Euro. More like 2" for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Nice warm signal on the gfs after this, too bad it's after the weekend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 If we can pull this one off with the closed low and overruning in the right position, then it would be the first 2" or greater event for NYC since November 27th and June 7th 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Dont see any lobster bisque in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Upton .WITH A COLDER HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ENTRAIN INTO THIS SYSTEM TO CAUSE A MEASURABLE WET SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 I guess it's a good thing we missed on the big storm from yesterday, imagine 20" of snow and then a 2-3" rainstorm right after that, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 More like 2" for nyc It shows 3+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 GFS is 1.96" of rain for NYC and less west. The huge totals start on LI where the GFS verbatim has 4"-6" of rain. ISP is 4.58" But that's probably convective and very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 it would be different if this thread had substance other than blanket postings of model images. nobody's talking about the mechanisms that will produce precip, no soundings, no pwat discussion, none of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 it would be different if this thread had substance other than blanket postings of model images. nobody's talking about the mechanisms that will produce precip, no soundings, no pwat discussion, none of that who cares? Honestly. If someone wants to start a thread about a specific event, so be it, if you don't like the discussion, start your own thread and/or avoid this one. Why b**ch 24/7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 GFS is 1.96" of rain for NYC and less west. The huge totals start on LI where the GFS verbatim has 4"-6" of rain. ISP is 4.58" But that's probably convective and very localized. That would be the biggest stratiform event in some time around here. (the 2 inches of rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 who cares? Honestly. If someone wants to start a thread about a specific event, so be it, if you don't like the discussion, start your own thread and/or avoid this one. Why b**ch 24/7? Hes not bitching his point is warranted. That would really make this more of an educational and constructive thread. Model runs are great as they do show the outcome but do not show the true inner workings of how it occurs besides a LP with moisture soaking our area. I agree with forky here, im trying to learn and the more i see more advanced forecasting tools and learn about them the better of i and some amatuers on here will be. Also referencing where you can find them would further add to the value of discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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