IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Taking a look at the GGEM colored maps it does look a hair drier than 12z as the heaviest rain just misses the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 3.5"-4" of rain on the euro for nyc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Damn 3.5-4.0" of rain ... the gfs is nowhere near that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The 0z Euro Ensemble mean has 1"-2" total rainfall through 120hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Pretty good consensus amongst the NCEP models for a heavy rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The 0z Euro Ensemble mean has 1"-2" total rainfall through 120hr. Did you look at the individuals? For example 18/51 members have over 2" of rain at KMMU 26/51 have at least an inch of rain. The mean is being skewed by a few very dry members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The 0z Euro Ensemble mean has 1"-2" total rainfall through 120hr. Saw the 00z EURO OP run this morning and that is a drought busting rainfall without having a drought. Widespread 2"+ rainfall, talk about a start to cut off low season and FINALLY a -NAO showing up late to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Saw the 00z EURO OP run this morning and that is a drought busting rainfall without having a drought. Widespread 2"+ rainfall, talk about a start to cut off low season and FINALLY a -NAO showing up late to the party Parts of the area are under Abnormally Dry status, and March has been very dry. This would be really good to reduce/eliminate the precip deficit before synoptic storms become more rare around this area and we go to shower/thunderstorm patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Parts of the area are under Abnormally Dry status, and March has been very dry. This would be really good to reduce/eliminate the precip deficit before synoptic storms become more rare around this area and we go to shower/thunderstorm patterns. Yes your correct the drought monitor shows this in some locals and having a wet april will give us breathing room for when our rainfall becomes scattered in nature. the convective season that is commonly scattered showers/storms outside of the occasional wrapped up rainstorm during late spring/summer will not be as kind to drought conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 It's amazing how rainstorms stay on the models but not snowstorms. . Much needed rainfall is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Upton mentions the possiblity of snow this weekend. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS COMPLETELY DIVERGE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LVL LOW THAT CAUSES THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OFF THE COAST WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...WITH A COLDER HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ENTRAIN INTO THIS SYSTEM TO CAUSE A MEASURABLE WET SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL DOES NOT CUTOFF THIS LOW AND REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IS MOVING THIS LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN A FAIR WEATHER FORECAST FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH ITS UPPER LVL PATTERN DOES SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING BY 12Z SUNDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY...RAIN SHOWERS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR WET SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Upton mentions the possiblity of snow this weekend. The 00z ECMWF has solid rain chances right through Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 It's amazing how rainstorms stay on the models but not snowstorms. . Much needed rainfall is on the way. That's mainly because snowstorms must follow a delicate track for us, while a rainstorm can go pretty much anywhere and it will still be a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 That's mainly because snowstorms must follow a delicate track for us, while a rainstorm can go pretty much anywhere and it will still be a rainstorm. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 09z SREF's are ~0.25" wetter across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Looking at the SIM radar you posted yanks, that would be very accurate as these storms tend to have the heaviest axis of rainfall along the delaware river and in the vicinity of it. Its more common to have the NYC and west jackpot with these systems over just coastal regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Looking at the SIM radar you posted yanks, that would be very accurate as these storms tend to have the heaviest axis of rainfall along the delaware river and in the vicinity of it. Its more common to have the NYC and west jackpot with these systems over just coastal regions Agreed, some of the models have been wanting to jackpot Long Island with this one. That doesn't really fit this setup well. I think heaviest axis of rainfall will be from SE PA up along 95 through NNJ and into the Lower Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Agreed, some of the models have been wanting to jackpot Long Island with this one. That doesn't really fit this setup well. I think heaviest axis of rainfall will be from SE PA up along 95 through NNJ and into the Lower Hudson Valley. Also to hash out the chance of a changeover to snow along the coast with this storm; i dont see any models showing the coastal deepening rapidly to entrench enough cold air into the system to even changeover to snow. Not saying it wont happen but its a low probability at this moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Also to hash out the chance of a changeover to snow along the coast with this storm; i dont see any models showing the coastal deepening rapidly to entrench enough cold air into the system to even changeover to snow. Not saying it wont happen but its a low probability at this moment The storm is cut off from any cold air source. This is a subtropical jet storm. There might be some snow showers under the upper air low but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The storm is cut off from any cold air source. This is a subtropical jet storm. There might be some snow showers under the upper air low but that's it. Agreed, it's time to give up the ghost guys. Maybe a flurry or two as the system pulls away on Monday morning and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Quick update on the NAM, it's a tick wetter across the board. The 4k NAM is well over an inch for all areas through hour 60 with a lot more to come. Going to be a very wet storm. The 09z SREF's ticked NW and ticked wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Looking at the SIM radar you posted yanks, that would be very accurate as these storms tend to have the heaviest axis of rainfall along the delaware river and in the vicinity of it. Its more common to have the NYC and west jackpot with these systems over just coastal regions 8 or 9 times out of ten the heavy rainfall axis is roughly along the axis you describe. However, the track of the associated low will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Euro lingers the cut-off rains into Monday. Most of the guidance including the Euro ensembles don't show that.. The system coming into Midwest could kick this out sooner. You another system behind that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Euro lingers the cut-off rains into Monday. Most of the guidance including the Euro ensembles don't show that.. The system coming into Midwest could kick this out sooner. I give the Euro some credence on that idea because it tends to perform better in -NAO patterns, that said its been trying to blow stuff up all year or make things worse than they end up beyond 72-84 hours. If it were not for the approaching system out west I'd probably buy the Euro almost for sure on the idea...the GFS and GEM ensembles have been split on the idea the Euro shows, I think 7 or 8 out of 12 GFS ensembles did not have and 11 out of 23 GEM ones did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 1"-2" of rain is not a huge event. And right now that's the consensus with the euro as the major outlier. You should probably wait for the rest of the 12z runs before making a statement like that. Both the SREF's and 12z NAM have increased QPF totals today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Nam has rain out of here by Sunday morning..according to Nam Sunday and Monday are nice days with sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 If i had to make a forecast. Ill go with the Euro. Nam jumps to much.. and GFS.. no comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The NAM is a fast mover because it never cuts off the low. Essentially all it has is the passage of a very sharp trough. I would side with the Euro here. It has been locked in for a few days now. Only wavering in exact positioning but keeping the same look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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