ag3 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Sounds like it's wetter than 00z. Can't see maps, but Sunday night is wetter and colder, it appears: MON 00Z 31-MAR -1.2 1009 87 90 0.26 551 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 At this rate the 18z NAM is going to be out before the 12z Euro. I don't recall this ever happening before with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 At this rate the 18z NAM is going to be out before the 12z Euro. I don't recall this ever happening before with the Euro. Anthony's last ditch effort for a snowstorm caused the EURO to crash today. His weenie hacking skills just werent up to task today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Hours 78-96, the GFS has .08" of rain for NYC. Hours 78-96, the Euro has 1.76" of rain with more before and after that I can't see. Just some slight differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Alot of rain this run on the euro. That will make yankeefan happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Alot of rain this run on the euro. That will make yankeefan happy It used to be a rule of thumb that if the Euro and GGEM were similar at day 3-4 you could lock it up. Now I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The Euro goes bonkers between hours 84-90 as the mid-levels close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The Euro has finally updated, it's 2-3.5" of rain area wide and about half of that falls in less than 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 EURO also looks like it has a big storm (though different evolution than GGEM) on the 4-5th...the storm HM talked about today too. Idk precip details so can't comment yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Thought I'd post this for fun....Today's 12z EURO run @ 216-240 hours looks very similar to the 97' pattern. Obviously I'm comparing a fantasy range model run to a classic all-timer, but why not.... Damn close to me.. EURO upload img 97 free uploader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 There's not much to know. It's a very rainy run of 3"+ with no snow for anyone, not even well north and west areas. Monday is a fully dry day as well. Yeah that was what I was most happy to see is that it wasn't deluging us anymore on Monday, definitely liked that trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 That storm at day 9 is never going to work out like that so I don't really see the point of mentioning that it shows snow. One thing that we know is that the pattern looks to become more active for our region. yeah, but if you are going to do model analysis of the model 9 days out (which i agree is a futile exercise), you have to do it correctly, even if you disagree. State your opinion afterwards, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 yeah, but if you are going to do model analysis of the model 9 days out (which i agree is a futile exercise), you have to do it correctly, even if you disagree. State your opinion afterwards, etc.. Ill agree here, when your doing forecasting especially a LR day 9 forecast saying something isnt going to happen just isnt prudent ( i love your analysis btw yanksfan ). Yanks i would critique that statement better to save face and more importantly to you not have forky blow holes in you again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Gfs still much drier than the Euro...generally .75-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Gfs still much drier than the Euro...generally .75-1" I'm showing the 1.75" plus contour through NYC with all areas well over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Might I add that the GFS still has precip falling at hour 114 and that we're right on the edge of the heaviest rain throughout this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The 18z NAM was really juiced as well. Over an inch or rain through hr 84 with a lot more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I'm showing the 1.75" plus contour through NYC with all areas well over an inch. Its around 1.3" all said and done but some of that is on Friday then there's a break with the bulk on Sunday and lingering into Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 sure since it is gonna be a rain event it will hit no doubt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Its around 1.3" all said and done but some of that is on Friday then there's a break with the bulk on Sunday and lingering into Monday morningWhere are you seeing 1.3"? A sounding? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean generally supports the op focusing the area of heaviest rain over the same areas. The models should have an easier time predicting this less progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Where are you seeing 1.3"? A sounding? Thanks in advance.I have the text printout and just add it all up...there's .16" after this that got cut offFRI 12Z 28-MAR 4.8 4.5 1020 95 82 0.00 566 550 FRI 18Z 28-MAR 9.8 4.6 1017 94 93 0.05 565 551 SAT 00Z 29-MAR 10.4 5.1 1018 98 33 0.12 566 551 SAT 06Z 29-MAR 4.5 5.7 1022 92 5 0.00 567 549 SAT 12Z 29-MAR 3.3 4.5 1025 87 7 0.00 567 547 SAT 18Z 29-MAR 6.4 4.2 1022 75 84 0.02 567 549 SUN 00Z 30-MAR 3.9 5.6 1019 91 98 0.10 565 550 SUN 06Z 30-MAR 1.8 4.0 1015 92 88 0.04 562 550 SUN 12Z 30-MAR 1.6 3.3 1013 93 99 0.40 559 549 SUN 18Z 30-MAR 1.5 2.4 1011 87 96 0.24 556 547 MON 00Z 31-MAR 1.5 -0.4 1012 90 99 0.06 553 543 MON 06Z 31-MAR 1.8 -0.1 1012 89 92 0.14 552 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 21z SREF mean was 1.5" plus for NYC through hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 LOL, you seriously cannot make this stuff up, the 00Z GFS basically pulls whats occurred with the last few storms, much more progressive and out of here way faster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 LOL, you seriously cannot make this stuff up, the 00Z GFS basically pulls whats occurred with the last few storms, much more progressive and out of here way faster now. Yep outta here by Sunday morning..half inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 LOL, you seriously cannot make this stuff up, the 00Z GFS basically pulls whats occurred with the last few storms, much more progressive and out of here way faster now. Because it doesn't cut the low off. Go with the GGEM/Euro blend and you're golden at this range. Because it doesn't cut the low off. Go with the GGEM/Euro blend and you're golden at this range. Even so, it's close to an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 The 00z NAM had impressive totals. The SREF's were wet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Gfs is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Gfs is ugly. The GGEM looks better although it may be a hair more progressive than the 12z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Eyeballing the black and white maps the 00z GGEM looks even wetter than 12z and has precip lasting well into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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