supermeh Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Here is total precip by type on today's GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The 12z UKMET is really amped up. The 500mb look reminds me of some of our most prolific rain producers from systems of non-tropical origins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Here is total precip by type on today's GGEM: I'll be looking forward to the foot of snow the GGEM says we're getting on April 5th. Locking it in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I'll be looking forward to the foot of snow the GGEM says we're getting on April 5th. Locking it in now. Don't you know that this will be another storm for the Mid-Atlantic while we're cold and dry? Climo FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I'll be looking forward to the foot of snow the GGEM says we're getting on April 5th. Locking it in now. HM keeps on saying watch out for this timeframe for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 NO SNOW IN APRIL! Its had its chance this month and has ruined it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 HM keeps on saying watch out for this timeframe for something. Don't worry, the pattern is going to be great for lots of storminess and mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 NO SNOW IN APRIL! Its had its chance this month and has ruined it We'll get a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 12z GGEM total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Don't you know that this will be another storm for the Mid-Atlantic while we're cold and dry? Climo FTW I'm not sure they have ever had a significant measurable snow down there that late, for NYC 4/6/82 I think is the latest one of close to it, hard to believe DCA has ever done it after 4/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Just saw GGEM Day 9-10, wow, like 12+ for parts of MD, and 4-8" for Philly....I guess if there is a winter where this could happen, it is this one, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 That storm at day 9 is never going to work out like that so I don't really see the point of mentioning that it shows snow. One thing that we know is that the pattern looks to become more active for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 That storm at day 9 is never going to work out like that so I don't really see the point of mentioning that it shows snow. One thing that we know is that the pattern looks to become more active for our region. That NAO which briefly goes negative is positive again by that storm, even if it stayed negative I don't know what help it would really be since its largely an east based -NAO, if we had a strong west based NAO its very possible we'd have a shot at snow Sunday night as the upper low ejected out since perhaps we'd get a more favorable track...the Midwest system coming in sort of hurts us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 That NAO which briefly goes negative is positive again by that storm, even if it stayed negative I don't know what help it would really be since its largely an east based -NAO, if we had a strong west based NAO its very possible we'd have a shot at snow Sunday night as the upper low ejected out since perhaps we'd get a more favorable track...the Midwest system coming in sort of hurts us as well. Are incoming moderate el nino's associated with above average precipitation in Spring over the northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Looks like GFS has 1"-2" of snow for most of the region after rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 NO SNOW IN APRIL! Its had its chance this month and has ruined it the best thing about April is that it wont be March. if ever there was an April with a chance, this one is it. april 7, 2003 was a hardcore mid-january-esque snowstorm. we get about 1 good one per decade. we're due... even if we have to wait another 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The 12z Euro has stalled at hour 30, Snow88 must be attempting to hack it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Are incoming moderate el nino's associated with above average precipitation in Spring over the northeast? Yeah, and usually they are notorious for producing a late spring snow event like 82 and 97, 09 did not really, at least that I can remember but I wasn't here back in 09....I guess you can argue this morning's storm may have been it...I'm not a fan of either of these events although the one this weekend, largely due to the -NAO may be impressive but I still think the progressive pattern to our west is going to result in this event being less impressive than it currently looks as has been the case all year, I'd definitely liked to have seen some back end upper level snow on the ground for opening day AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Yeah, and usually they are notorious for producing a late spring snow event like 82 and 97, 09 did not really, at least that I can remember but I wasn't here back in 09....I guess you can argue this morning's storm may have been it...I'm not a fan of either of these events although the one this weekend, largely due to the -NAO may be impressive but I still think the progressive pattern to our west is going to result in this event being less impressive than it currently looks as has been the case all year, I'd definitely liked to have seen some back end upper level snow on the ground for opening day AM. It looks to come down to the amplitude of the energy as it slides east. We're talking about a storm in the day 3-5 range so the models should have a reasonably good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 It looks to come down to the amplitude of the energy as it slides east. We're talking about a storm in the day 3-5 range so the models should have a reasonably good idea. The good news this time is the NAM/NavGEM are where you'd expect them to be through the end of their ranges, honestly the only 2 storms the last 3-4 months where both of those occurred were the 2 events in mid-February...that could very well mean the GFS/GEM/Euro blend is going to at least be close to the eventual evolution although for sure there will be some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 The good news this time is the NAM/NavGEM are where you'd expect them to be through the end of their ranges, honestly the only 2 storms the last 3-4 months where both of those occurred were the 2 events in mid-February...that could very well mean the GFS/GEM/Euro blend is going to at least be close to the eventual evolution although for sure there will be some changes. The Euro ensembles were pretty enthusiastic last night, though they were pretty enthusiastic about the storm for last night at this range too. The 12z GEFS are in pretty good agreement on a cut off low near the coast this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 For whatever reason the Euro is stuck on hour 30 on both SV and WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I'm not sure they have ever had a significant measurable snow down there that late, for NYC 4/6/82 I think is the latest one of close to it, hard to believe DCA has ever done it after 4/5 It snowed 10" on April 13, 1875 in Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 That storm at day 9 is never going to work out like that so I don't really see the point of mentioning that it shows snow. One thing that we know is that the pattern looks to become more active for our region. Because you said it showed rain when in reality it showed snow. Yes, it will prob change 10 million times! But your info was wrong on Ptype, please provide correct info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 For whatever reason the Euro is stuck on hour 30 on both SV and WxBell. It's busy printing out all the 0s that come after the initial 8, which amounts to the number of inches of snow the run gives us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Is this storm really going to be a full bonified nor'easter. I guess that means winds will be a factor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 That storm at day 9 is never going to work out like that so I don't really see the point of mentioning that it shows snow. One thing that we know is that the pattern looks to become more active for our region. Wow congrats it only took you all winter to finally realize it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Another 1.01" falls between hours 84-90. So deluge again. Where are you getting the 12z Euro from? I've been stuck at hour 36 for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Where are you getting the 12z Euro from? I've been stuck at hour 36 for a long time. Accuwx soundings are coming in but only bits and pieces. Between hours 78-90, 1.76" of rain has fallen in NYC. At 2pm Sunday, the 850 temps crash to 1.9: SUN 00Z 30-MAR 5.9 8.6 1012 98 98 0.75 564 555 SUN 06Z 30-MAR 5.2 7.6 1007 97 98 1.01 559 553 SUN 18Z 30-MAR 5.0 1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Accuwx soundings are coming in but only bits and pieces. Between hours 78-90, 1.76" of rain has fallen in NYC. At 2pm Sunday, the 850 temps crash to 1.9: SUN 00Z 30-MAR 5.9 8.6 1012 98 98 0.75 564 555 SUN 06Z 30-MAR 5.2 7.6 1007 97 98 1.01 559 553 SUN 18Z 30-MAR 5.0 1.9 Sounds like it's wetter than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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