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March 29-30th moderate nor'easter


Mikehobbyst

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The RAP shows the last band of precip falling into air all levels below freezing it seems except the surface, which hovers in the mid to upper 30s, for NENJ/NYC and Long Island. Still shows another 1/2 inch to 1 inch to come regardless of what it is (99.5% sure it'll be rain)

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Over 3" of rain and the only talk of the town is a weenie model showing a few inches of snow over someone's back yard. It has zero chance of happening. Zero.

True. What happened in N MD wont happen anywhere else with this storm. Everything came together right there with the ull. Pretty much like all winter lol. Manchester MD has 80+ inches of snow for the winter-spring.

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True. What happened in N MD wont happen anywhere else with this storm. Everything came together right there with the ull. Pretty much like all winter lol. Manchester MD has 80+ inches of snow for the winter-spring.

I agree, although I think western CT has a chance at some snow accumulating at higher elevations later on

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I agree, although I think western CT has a chance at some snow accumulating at higher elevations later on

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Yeah there could be a few inches there, so not to say no place will see snow. NE PA also could see an inch or 2 tonight. But heavy snow with 6+ inches? probably not.

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Yeah there could be a few inches there, so not to say no place will see snow. NE PA also could see an inch or 2 tonight. But heavy snow with 6+ inches? probably not.

NEW YORK

...BROOME COUNTY...

E PORT CRANE 8.0 945 PM 3/30 ELEVATION 1460 FEET

2 S KIRKWOOD 6.0 916 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST WINDSOR 6.0 850 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

WEST COLESVILLE 6.0 910 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

2 NNE DUNBAR 5.3 845 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

PORT CRANE 5.0 900 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

 

PENNSYLVANIA

...LUZERNE COUNTY...

MOUNTAIN TOP 2.5 954 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

KINGSTON 2.1 938 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY...

ELK LAKE 3.0 700 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

HALLSTEAD 3.0 830 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

7 NE FRIENDSVILLE 2.0 630 PM 3/30 PUBLIC

MONTROSE 2.0 700 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

...WAYNE COUNTY...

PLEASANT MOUNT 1.0 805 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WYOMING COUNTY...

TUNKHANNOCK 5.0 730 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

LAKE CAREY 4.0 730 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

 

 

More to come tonight...

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True. What happened in N MD wont happen anywhere else with this storm. Everything came together right there with the ull. Pretty much like all winter lol. Manchester MD has 80+ inches of snow for the winter-spring.

 

Parts of the Binghamton CWA have been upgraded to WSW's with expectations of 10" or more of snow in spots.  

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ056&warncounty=NYC007&firewxzone=NYZ056&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning#.UzjVpvldWZo

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NEW YORK

...BROOME COUNTY...

E PORT CRANE 8.0 945 PM 3/30 ELEVATION 1460 FEET

2 S KIRKWOOD 6.0 916 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST WINDSOR 6.0 850 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

WEST COLESVILLE 6.0 910 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

2 NNE DUNBAR 5.3 845 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

PORT CRANE 5.0 900 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

 

PENNSYLVANIA

...LUZERNE COUNTY...

MOUNTAIN TOP 2.5 954 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

KINGSTON 2.1 938 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY...

ELK LAKE 3.0 700 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

HALLSTEAD 3.0 830 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

7 NE FRIENDSVILLE 2.0 630 PM 3/30 PUBLIC

MONTROSE 2.0 700 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

...WAYNE COUNTY...

PLEASANT MOUNT 1.0 805 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WYOMING COUNTY...

TUNKHANNOCK 5.0 730 PM 3/30 TRAINED SPOTTER

LAKE CAREY 4.0 730 PM 3/30 FACEBOOK

 

 

More to come tonight...

Context of the conv was wrt to NYC and close by areas where no snow is in the forecast. Thats a different world out in those places. There are advisories for interior areas NW of Conn, where snow was expected. We are talking places where there is little or no snow in the forecast tonight, but the HRRR is suggesting it. That was the case in MD. No snow was forecast, no advisory, until there was already 2-3 inches on the ground.

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It is very interesting though that even the newest RAP coming out now does show colder air at all levels (including the surface) coming in to western Long Island (a very small area) while some heavier precip is falling. Even west of there in NENJ/NYC it's a tad bit warmer and would stay mainly rain. I'm sure this is due to the heavier precip and due to the elevation it most certainly will not accumulate except a light dusting on some surfaces, at most.....but flakes are a definite possibility for a small area around here

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It is very interesting though that even the newest RAP coming out now does show colder air at all levels (including the surface) coming in to western Long Island (a very small area) while some heavier precip is falling. Even west of there in NENJ/NYC it's a tad bit warmer and would stay mainly rain. I'm sure this is due to the heavier precip and due to the elevation it most certainly will not accumulate except a light dusting on some surfaces, at most.....but flakes are a definite possibility for a small area around here

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Fwiw the HRRR did a pretty good job locating the heavy snow area that fell earlier over N MD into PA. But that was with the upper low which is clearly weakening over the past couple hours.

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Context of the conv was wrt to NYC and close by areas where no snow is in the forecast. Thats a different world out in those places. There are advisories for interior areas NW of Conn, where snow was expected. We are talking places where there is little or no snow in the forecast tonight, but the HRRR is suggesting it. That was the case in MD. No snow was forecast, no advisory, until there was already 2-3 inches on the ground.

 

I have wintry precip in my forecast and I'm in Uptons CWA.. There is an advisory for NW NJ as well. Both places are within the tri-state area.

 

No one is expecting snow in and around immediate NYC. Whoever is is gonna be greatly disappointed.

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I have wintry precip in my forecast and I'm in Uptons CWA.. There is an advisory for NW NJ as well. Both places are within the tri-state area.

 

No one is expecting snow in and around immediate NYC. Whoever is is gonna be greatly disappointed.

Yes but you seemed to be keying on my statement that no place will likely see 6+ inches tonight. Looking at the models, most places overnight that are going to get snow, are going to see relatively minor amounts. I realize there are places  in NY and PA that have received more than 6 inches, but most of that fell earlier today into the evening. And yeah it seems unlikely that the city and immediate surrounds will see more than some flakes in the air, but thats what sparked this discussion...the HRRR and RAP suggesting the possibility.

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I agree, although I think western CT has a chance at some snow accumulating at higher elevations later on

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Looking at the radar, precip seems to be on the increase in SE Mass. Perhaps it rotates down thru W. CT and then LI.

 

The band to our west appears to be dying out.

 

That's the only explaination I have for the HRRR.

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Looking at the radar, precip seems to be on the increase in SE Mass. Perhaps it rotates down thru W. CT and then LI.

The band to our west appears to be dying out.

That's the only explaination I have for the HRRR.

Yep, that's kinda what the RAP and HRRR show, however the snow (if it happens) would probably not occur until 5-7 am tmrw morning for that area

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