Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Holy Smokes I hope the public is prepared for this storm. I am concerned with the amount of rain that is forecasted. Going to check my rain gutters this morning. People make sure all drains on your streets are clear of trash and leaves. Also check on the elderly. Forecast is looking like 3 to 4 inches of rain. Best Euro and GFS both look similar for Northwest NJ with around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The snow aspect of this should be interesting with the ccb band at the end. The northwest areas have a better chance than our area. Yeah, the NAM shows the chance of sleet on soundings, however, the low will be weakening when we would really need it to be strengthening according to latest modeling, so not sure this will work out. Euro has 6 inch accumulations in the higher elevations of the Poconos and Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Looks like coastal areas may jackpot with this system after all. LI may see 3-4" of rain later this afternoon and into sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The snow aspect of this should be interesting with the ccb band at the end. The northwest areas have a better chance than our area. I actually don't usually get too hyped up about snow at the end of a warm system (usually doesn't work out).....however for NWNJ/EPA/SNY and especially headed NE of there, there is the potential for some very heavy banding and 2-4" accumulations. Even here, we COULD get up to an inch Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Looks like should be around 2 inches of rain in west sections and 2.5 inches in east sections of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I actually don't usually get too hyped up about snow at the end of a warm system (usually doesn't work out).....however for NWNJ/EPA/SNY and especially headed NE of there, there is the potential for some very heavy banding and 2-4" accumulations. Even here, we COULD get up to an inch Sent from my iPhone It will be interesting, but with the low weakening I am not sure. The NAM soundings currently depict sleet for us on Sunday night into Monday morning. The Euro says rain. The Canadian and UKMET show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The 06z 4k NAM had 5-6" of rain for NE NJ, NYC and Western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The 06z 4k NAM had 5-6" of rain for NE NJ, NYC and Western LI. Yeah, they really should fix that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Yeah, they really should fix that model.It looks reasonable to me. I'll be shocked if anyone sees less than 2.5" with that LLJ placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 It looks reasonable to me. I'll be shocked if anyone sees less than 2.5" with that LLJ placement. I doubt anyone gets 5-6 inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 It looks reasonable to me. I'll be shocked if anyone sees less than 2.5" with that LLJ placement. I completely agree. We're in for a big rain event. If I had to call it, I'd say 3-5". This is not the "usual" heavy rain event. The best rains should be over us or nearby, and it will be a long lasting event that will come in "phases" with the heavy banding Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I doubt anyone gets 5-6 inches though.We're talking about heavy convection tonight. Someone could see 2-3" in a very short period. 5-6" does seem high but 2.5-4" sounds very reasonable IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 This thread seems really bad right now, people calling for everywhere from 2-2.5, 2-4, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, and everything in between. It's unreadable for someone just trying to find the actual forecast, so I'll stick with the Upton's forecast of 2.5 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I completely agree. We're in for a big rain event. If I had to call it, I'd say 3-5". This is not the "usual" heavy rain event. The best rains should be over us or nearby, and it will be a long lasting event that will come in "phases" with the heavy banding Sent from my iPhone Most model guidance is 2-3".. Why do you think we're going to see so much more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The 12z NAM is 2" plus just by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Most model guidance is 2-3".. Why do you think we're going to see so much more?Because of the strong LLJ placement. PWAT's soaring to near 1.5". Abundent moisture and forcing. Elevated CAPE. Recipe for strong convection with heavy rain. This is what the NAM was designed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Most model guidance is 2-3".. Why do you think we're going to see so much more? Great dynamics with this system, with the best shown right over our area. As with thunderstorms, models (especially global models) will not always pick up heavier amounts within banding. I think the same will be very possible here. I'd say close to 3" where the best banding does not occur (still some though), and 5" where it does. Just one extremely heavy band over an area could put down 1 to 1.5" in a fairly short period of time. Coupled with the fact that it will come in "waves" of this leads me to the idea that we're in for quite a memorable rain event Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Rains more stratoform at the moment rather than convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Anytime you have strong convection it's nearly impossible to predict exact QPF. The SREF mean which has terrible resolution is showing 2.5" plus for most places. Normally you can take those amounts and tack on at least another inch in these setups. Still, I only expect minor to perhaps moderate river flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Rains more stratoform at the moment rather than convective.Yeah the convection arrives tonight on the nose of the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Still will probably be 2-3" area wide with maybe local spots getting up to 4 or 5". Will have to see how intense the convective banding is later on as that could easily allow for up to 5" if it trains over a local area. Flooding should still be minor for the most part with the usual small streams and creeks rising more rapidly than major rivers. Luckily things have been rather dry as of late or we would've had bigger issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 If the latest nam is correct that is quite a bit of water headed into the upper Delaware. Combined with runoff from melting snowpack near the origin point could spell for some moderate rises downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 12z NAM actually has significant sleet in Northern New Jersey on Sunday night with surface temperatures even getting below freezing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 12z NAM actually has significant sleet in Northern New Jersey on Sunday night with surface temperatures even getting below freezing now. The 0z run had snow/sleet as well even down to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The 0z run had snow/sleet as well even down to the coast This run is significantly colder at the mid levels and the ground level though, actually getting surface temps below zero on Sunday night into Monday morning. It would be snow if not for a warm layer just above cloud level. The mid levels are actually well below freezing on Sunday night into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Rains more stratoform at the moment rather than convective. The rain will be the lighter variety with the warm front, but once that passes it will become heavier and start to train over one area once the LLJ comes into play later tonight. I think 2-4" for most areas sounds good. There's the chance for some higher amounts though under areas of heavy training rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 the nam shows convection rotating over the area from the SE sunday. that's our best chance to outpace model qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 the nam shows convection rotating over the area from the SE sunday. that's our best chance to outpace model qpf Agreed, the 06z NAM had a bit more, 12z a bit less, hence the 4k NAM this run showing mostly 3-4" with a few blips 5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Agreed, the 06z NAM had a bit more, 12z a bit less, hence the 4k NAM this run showing mostly 3-4" with a few blips 5"+. For whatever reason the 6z and 18z runs of the models always seem to show more qpf and they are usually wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 For whatever reason the 6z and 18z runs of the models always seem to show more qpf and they are usually wrong.Minor differences this run, just a hair less training. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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