forkyfork Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 the euro shows elevated CAPE under the upper low all day sunday. we could see bands of weak tstorms rolling in from the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Snow maps show an inch for NYC with more towards CT. nothing on the euros maps support accumulating snow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 the euro shows elevated CAPE under the upper low all day sunday. we could see bands of weak tstorms rolling in from the SE That may be what the models are generating all that bizarre QPF behind the 500 low with, someone mentioned yesterday they though everything 18z Sunday to 12z Monday was possibly convective signals from the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The SREF's pumped up numbers again after backing down slightly at 09z. Mean is ~2.50" NW of NYC and ~2.00 SE of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 That may be what the models are generating all that bizarre QPF behind the 500 low with, someone mentioned yesterday they though everything 18z Sunday to 12z Monday was possibly convective signals from the models 12Z NAM showed some frontogenesis, behind the 500mb low too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 353 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...FAIRFIELD...NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...BERGEN...PASSAIC...ESSEX...HUDSON AND UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER. * FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COASTAL PLAIN ON SATURDAY...STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD THEN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. * RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The 12z Euro also has 50kt+ 850mb jet and PWATs around 1.25" - 1.50" over the NYC area at 6z Sunday. Models signaling a very heavy band of rain will move through the area Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The 18z NAM deluges the area from 03z Sunday through 15z Sunday. ~1.50" of rain in 12 hours. NNJ is in the bullseye. Then it has a band of activity persisting, mainly over Western sections well into Monday with 850's well below freezing. Surface looks warm. White rain most likely and or some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 amazing how we missed some BIG time snowstorms by just a sliver of space and time over the past couple of weeks. We have been close to getting something HUGE. All I am left with is wonderment as to whether or not the stars will align before cold air is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 amazing how we missed some BIG time snowstorms by just a sliver of space and time over the past couple of weeks. We have been close to getting something HUGE. All I am left with is wonderment as to whether or not the stars will align before cold air is history. Looks like we're going to wait until December. We haven't gotten a straight heavy rainstorm in a while, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Where? People will attack me for giving wrong information but I'm sure you'll go un-scaved. ecmwf_tprecip_ma_172.png Ag3 was talking about until Sunday night. He should have clarified. He's been saying late Sunday into Monday is the wild card and isnt counting what the models show qpf-wise in that period until we are closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Nam is 3"+ and comes very close to ending as snow Monday morning for the coast and would be some accumulations inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I suspect that the NAM's idea is actually quite reasonable in terms of qpf. The system which is developing near the intersection of the Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas borders (somewhat north of where the 4 km NAM initialized it), will have abundant Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture available to it. A number of the models have indicated the possibility of its cutting off, as well. With the possibility of ridges hooking up between eastern Canada and the Atlantic, the cut off scenario is a plausible one. Hence, at least IMO, an expansive area of 2"-4" precipitation with a few higher figures (probably across a portion of Long Island into Connecticut as the NAM suggests) seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 You know, I was just thinking to myself, gee, I could use about 3" of rain right now. And what do you know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The rgem is really wet through hr 48. 2-4"+ and still raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The rgem is really wet through hr 48. 2-4"+ and still raining Where's the jack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Never thought that the RGEM would be spitting out 4-6" of rain for The Bronx, NE NJ and Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 So.....much.......rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Euro is about 2.25 or so through Sun evening NYC, seems similar N and W, some parts of LI get 2.60-2.70 it appears...this run was drier thereafter with around .10-.15 total 00Z Mon til 12Z AM...it also suggests the NAM's snow idea is out to lunch as does most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 SnowGoose 69, I looked at all guidance and extrapolating out it looks like the most miserable April ever will be on our hands. Like one with 80 percent of the days with rain and 38-42 and only 20 percent nice. The next 20-25 days looks horrible for the very most part. I think we will have to wait until 4/22 to get out of this cold wet hell. Have a feeling we jump into a very warm pattern by 4/25 - 5/10 and then go back and forth, until we get into a very warm to hot pattern that starts to establish 5/20 and possibly locks in for quite awhile. Wondering if we get into a summer that locks in hot, just as his winter locked in cold. If we could get a reversal of this winter to warm, look for a 35-40 90 plus summer. Wonder if we have a chance to go inferno especially this 6/2014 with good severe, like we did in 6/1994, a similar winter pattern with +NAO and -EPO. Mets and others what do you think ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Holy Smokes I hope the public is prepared for this storm. I am concerned with the amount of rain that is forecasted. Going to check my rain gutters this morning. People make sure all drains on your streets are clear of trash and leaves. Also check on the elderly. Forecast is looking like 3 to 4 inches of rain. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 6 gfs most likely having convective feedback. Toss it. Cut back on rain totals some what. Anyone doing play by play for the 12 z runs? Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 It's a firehose of pwats greater 1.00" brought in by 50kt LLJ for about 3-6 hours tonight. Should easily see 2-3" widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The last minute southerly trend will finally put the heaviest rainfall right across our area with the best overunning and elevated convection very close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Looks like 3-4 inches for LI and NYC, with possible 5 inch amounts. Leaves should be the size of a quarter by Flag Day at least. Fully grown by the 4th of July. Just had to say it ... sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 SnowGoose 69, I looked at all guidance and extrapolating out it looks like the most miserable April ever will be on our hands. Like one with 80 percent of the days with rain and 38-42 and only 20 percent nice. The next 20-25 days looks horrible for the very most part. I think we will have to wait until 4/22 to get out of this cold wet hell. Have a feeling we jump into a very warm pattern by 4/25 - 5/10 and then go back and forth, until we get into a very warm to hot pattern that starts to establish 5/20 and possibly locks in for quite awhile. Wondering if we get into a summer that locks in hot, just as his winter locked in cold. If we could get a reversal of this winter to warm, look for a 35-40 90 plus summer. Wonder if we have a chance to go inferno especially this 6/2014 with good severe, like we did in 6/1994, a similar winter pattern with +NAO and -EPO. Mets and others what do you think ?? Hmm 53,55,59,54. Where's your 38-42's lol Would they be with your snow mounds till flag day prediction!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Looks like 3-4 inches for LI and NYC, with possible 5 inch amounts. Leaves should be the size of a quarter by Flag Day at least. Fully grown by the 4th of July. Just had to say it ... sorry.I would bet good money full leave out would be WAY before july 4th. Whatever your smoking you should get weaker stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The snow aspect of this should be interesting with the ccb band at the end. The northwest areas have a better chance than our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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