April 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Final report on first winter snowfall dates contest

 

 

The rules stated that the season would run to April 15th for the southern stations, Atlanta got their measurable snow in December but Houston only received a few traces that fell during sleet events. By the rules, this means that those who predicted "no snow" at Houston get zero day errors and ten points. Those who made date forecasts get zero points and date errors based on an April 16th actual.

 

These are the final results, based on two different scoring systems, points and date errors (the day errors are the contest determinant since that was the announced method, the points are probably the way to go next time though):

 

Rank __ Forecaster ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_ IAH______ Points ___ Day errors ___ Rank for points

 

_________________________________ monthly points _________________________________________________

 

 1 ____ Chicago Storm _________15....19....07....03....08....10.............. 62 ........... 73 _________ 3 

 2 ____ Midlo_Snow_Maker _____19....19....12....08....01....10.............. 69 ........... 86 _________ 1

 3 ____ Inudaw ______________ 14....20....19....01....01....10.............. 65 ........... 88 _________ 2

 

 4 ____ Normal ______________ 14....20....13....12....01....10.............. 70 ........... 94 __________ 1

 

t4 ____ stebo ________________ 14....02....03....12....04....10.............. 45 ........... 97 _________15

t4 ____ Tom _________________ 11....13....16....04....01....10.............. 55 ........... 97 _________ 6

 

 6 ____ Consensus ____________ 10....20....07....08....01....10.............. 56 ........... 98 __________ 6

 

 6 ____ RodneyS ______________ 06....13....09...18....01....10...............57 ........... 115 _________ 5

 7 ____ bkviking _______________05....04....12....00....02....10............. 33 ........... 116 _________18

 8 ____ Roger Smith ___________ 05....01....00...13....10.....--................29 ........... 162 _________20

 9 ____ SD ___________________ 19....07....02....18....07....---..............53 ........... 164 _________ 7

10 ____ metalicwx366 __________ 17....17....13....03.....--.....10............. 60 .......... 166 _________ 4

  

11 ___ hudsonvalley21 _________ 03....15....16....08....06....---.............. 48 ...........175 _________11

11 ___ blazess556 ____________ 16....08....04....12.....--....10............... 50 .......... 175 __________ 9

13 ___ wxdude64 _____________ 10....11....01....14....09....---...............45 .......... 176 _________ 15

14 ___ Isotherm ______________ 14....06....07....09.....--....10...............46 .......... 179 __________13

15 ___ GD0815 _______________ 08....04....18....12....04...---............... 46 .......... 180 __________13

 

16 ___ donsutherland.1 ________ 09....09....16....00.....--.....10............. 44 ........... 186 _________ 17

17 ___ uncle W _______________ 07....06....07....08....05....---............. 33 ........... 192 _________ 18

18 ___ goobagooba ___________ 20....11....01....16....01....---.............. 49 ........... 198 _________ 10

19 ___ DerekZ _______________ 02....15....08....16.....--....10............... 51 .......... 200 __________ 8

20 ___ Wx Hype ______________ 01....17....12....08.....--.....10............. 48 .......... 292 _________ 11

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

Congrats to Chicago Storm who won the contest on day errors, and also to Midlo Snow Maker who had the highest point total (except for Normal). Inudaw also finished high in both measures.

 

Next bonus contest will be attached to the May contest, to predict the highest temperature at each of our nine stations (six if you prefer) this summer.

 

 

 

 

[WEATHER53]

I think the provisional end of month estimates have been running too high for about a week and look for the final outcome to be 0.5 to 1.0 colder than recently estimated.

[Roger Smith]

Yes, I have been adjusting them almost every day, and just added some more changes this morning for DCA, NYC and ORD also DEN, almost everyone gets the same boost in scores. Seems to be a combination of NWS 7-day being a bit high and my estimates for the rest of the days being a bit generous too.

[WEATHER53]

NYC may end up 0.0

[Isotherm]

NYC may end up 0.0

 

 

I think they'll be negative on the month. The Mon-Wed period next week should be cooler than current MOS projections. Fairly organized storm system with secondary surface low to our south means the associated warm front probably won't bypass NYC's latitude. Given enough cloud cover and moisture I could see a day in the 45-50F range either (or both) Tuesday/Wednesday.

[WEATHER53]

Yes Iso and I think it was not even more than 7 days ago that projected end month values for the big 3 were +1.5 to +2. I now think even DCA will end up no milder than +0.8

[Roger Smith]

<<<o0o----------------------  UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING (Jan-Apr 2014) -------------------------------o0o>>>

 

Table now incorporates revised scores in March and April

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ CL ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ EX ____ TOTALS ____ HIGH SCORES

 

__Annual anomalies __ --2.8 _ --3.4 _ --2.4 __ ,, ___ --6.3_ --1.9_ --3.1 __ ,, __________DC..NY.BO.OR.AT.IA...CL..EX...MO

 

 

donsutherland.1 ______ 314 _ 298_ 330 __ 942 ___ 266 _ 262 _ 238 ___ 766 ___ 1708 _____010 011 __ 1 _ 1 __ APR

OHweather __________ 330 _ 268 _334 __ 932 ___ 233 _ 285 _ 222 ___ 740 ___ 1672 _____100 020 __ 0 _ 0

Roger Smith _________ 276 _ 258 _ 186 __ 720 ___ 304 _290 _ 275 ___ 869 ___ 1589 _____110 212 __ 0 _ 1 __ JAN

Mallow ______________278 _ 248 _ 286 __ 812 ___ 244 _ 257 _ 240 ___ 741 ___ 1553 _____000 100

Tenman Johnson ______326 _ 282 _ 290 __ 898 ___ 175 _ 207 _ 270 ___ 652 ___ 1550 ____ 100 001 __ 2 _ 1 ___ MAR

blazess556 ___________274 _ 268 _ 284 __ 826 ___ 222 _ 244 _ 204 ___ 670 ___ 1496 _____000 010 __ 0 _ 0

ksammut ____________ 242 _ 258 _ 276 __ 776 ___ 190 _ 238 _ 274 ___ 702 ___ 1478 _____011 000 __ 1 _ 1 __ FEB

 

Consensus ___________ 274 _ 256 _ 288 __ 818 ___ 212 _ 238 _ 210 ___ 660 ___ 1478 ______000 010 __ 0 _ 0

 

Goobagooba _________ 252 _ 268 _ 302 __ 822 ___ 223 _ 210 _ 218 ___ 651 ___ 1473 _____002 100 __ 0 _ 0

Isotherm ____________ 268 _ 244 _ 264 __ 776 ___ 237 _ 240 _ 208 ___ 685 ___ 1461

Midlo Snow Maker _____294 _ 274 _ 310 __ 878 ___ 184 _ 198 _ 198 ___ 580 ___ 1458 _____010 010 __ 0 _ 0

Damage in Tolland_____298 _ 270 _ 302 __ 870 ___ 212 _ 218 _ 100 ___ 530 ___ 1400

Uncle W ____________ 222 _ 206 _ 272 __ 700 ___ 182 _ 238 _ 264 ___ 684 ___ 1384 _____000 001 __ 0 _ 0

metallicwx366 ________296 _ 204 _ 166 __ 666 ___ 235 _ 248 _ 196 ___ 679 ___ 1345

Tom________________ 263 _ 249 _ 225 __ 737 ___ 254 _ 238 _ 149 ___ 641 ___ 1378 (rev)

hudsonvalley21 _______ 277 _ 251 _ 290 __ 818 ___ 153 _ 217 _ 210 ___ 580 ___ 1398 (rev)

wxdude64 ___________ 210 _ 232 _ 278 __ 720 ___ 177 _ 172 _ 250 ___ 599 ___ 1319 _____000 001 __ 0 _ 0

Stebo _______________ 224 _ 152 _ 246 __ 622 ___ 173 _ 230 _ 232 ___ 635 ___ 1257_____100 000 __ 0 _ 0

cpick79 ______________229 _ 196 _ 263 __ 688 ___ 163 _ 250 _ 148 ___ 561 ___ 1249

bkviking _____________ 271 _ 206 _ 255 __ 732 ___ 158 _ 233 _  90 ___ 481 ___ 1213 (rev)

 

Normal ______________ 212 _ 136 _ 218 __ 566 ____ 92 _ 248 _ 214 ___ 554 ___ 1120 _____001 101 __ 0 _ 1

 

RodneyS ____________ 140 _ 144 _ 192 ___ 476 ___ 117 _ 154 _ 250 ___ 521 ____ 997

SD__________________143 _ 119 _ 181 ___ 443 ___ 101 _ 193 _ 158 ___ 452 ____ 895 (rev)

Chicago Storm* _______186 _ 153 _ 148 ___ 487 ___ 117 _ 134 _ 100 ___ 351 ____ 838 (rev)

weatherdude** ________ 66 __120 _ 150 __ 336 ___ 115 __96 _ 126 ___ 337 ____ 673 _____000 010 __ 0 _ 0

H20Town_Wx** ______ 125 _ 102 _ 144 ___ 371 ___ 83 __ 90 __ 60 ___ 233 ____ 604 rev__ 001 000 _ 0 _ 0

mkehobbyst*** ______   84 __ 92 __ 78 ___ 254 ____64 __ 68 __  80 ___ 212 ____ 466

TropicalAnalystwx13***__88 __ 44 __ 76 ___208 ____ 26 __ 76 ___60 ___ 162 ____370

Quincy***____________  54 __ 66 __ 42 ___162 ____ 38 __ 82 __ 92 ___ 212 ____ 374

swflow***_____________ 74 __ 66 __ 82 ___222 ____ 90 __ 36 __ 00 ___ 126 ____348 (rev)

CSheridan12***________ 46 __ 04 __ 00 ___ 50 _____12 __ 86 __ 44 ___ 144 ____192

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

Annual Scores for Optional western contest

 

____________________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL _____ best forecast awards ________ four-seasonal

Annual anomalies _____ --0.5 _ +3.6 _ +1.1_________DEN PHX SEA __ W __ Months _ Win,Spr,Sum,Aut __ TOT

 

Mallow ______________ 372 __ 270 __ 312 ____ 954 __________2 0 0 ____ 2 ____ FEB,APR _____ 6

Isotherm _____________ 302 __252 __362_____ 916 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ________10

blazess556 ___________ 298 __ 256 __ 356 ____ 910 _ _ _ _ _ _ _0 0 1 ____ 0  _ _ _ _ _ _________5

Midlo Snow Maker _____ 268 __ 306__ 324 ____ 898 __________ 0 0 1 ____ 0 _________________ 4

 

Consensus ____________ 320 __ 234 __ 304 ____ 858 __________________ 1 ____ APR _________ 2

 

Goobagooba __________ 296 __ 278__ 268 ____ 842 __________ 1 1 0 ____ 1 ____ JAN _________ 7

donsutherland.1 _______ 258 __ 244 __320 ____ 822 __________ 1 0 0 ____ 0 __________________1

bkviking ______________246 __ 283 __ 282 ____ 811 rev _______0 1 0 ____ 1 ____ MAR

Roger Smith __________ 200 ___252__ 344 ____ 796 __________ 0 0 1 ____ 0 _________________ 2

metalicwx366 _________ 256 __ 222 __ 310 ____786 _______________________________________1

Damage in Tolland _____ 228 __ 246 __ 286 ____760

wxdude64 ____________ 332 __ 162 __ 258 ____752 __________ 1 0 0 ____ 0 _________________ 3

Tom _________________207 __ 206 __ 287 ____ 700 rev ___________________________________ 1

ksammut _____________280 __ 146 ___234 ____ 660

 

Normal ______________ 264 __ 118 __ 248 ____ 630

 

OHweather ___________ 196 __ 112 __ 268 ____576

RodneyS _____________274 __ 104 __ 164 ____ 542

hudsonvalley21*_______ 202 __ 143 __ 197 ____ 542 (rev)

Stebo _______________ 236 ___ 80 __ 182 _____498

Chicago Storm* _______ 172 __ 108 __ 162 _____442 (rev)
Cpick79*_____________ 168 __ 152 __ 107 _____427
SD __________________136 __ 135 __ 184 _____455 (rev)
H20Town_Wx**_______ 146 ___ 97 __ 141 _____384 (rev)
Quincy*** ____________ 84 ___100 ___ 80 _____264 _________ 0 1 0 ____ 0
Mikehobbyst*** _______100 ___ 66 ___ 52 _____218 _________ 1 0 0 ____ 0

swflow _______________ 61 ___ 90 ___ 40 _____191 (rev)_____ 0 1 0 ____ 0
TropicalAnalystwx13***__54 ___ 00 ___ 92 _____ 146
CSheridan12*** _______ 00 ___ 84 ___ 00 ______ 84 _________ 0 1 0 ____ 0
weatherdude*** _______12 ___ 08 ___ 30 ______ 50

_____________________________________

 

* missed one or more months

[WEATHER53]

If DCA or NYC dont pop that warm front then values even further lower.

[Roger Smith]

Just for those looking in for scores, the monthly scores are back in post 30, and the annual scores are in post 37. These have been updating as provisional values but will soon be final values.

 

Almost everyone has improved their provisional scores thanks to this cold wedge holding back warmer air in the southeast.

 

Final scores should be available around mid-afternoon Thursday, although I may be updating scores during the late overnight as they become available.

 

(note added 07z May 1) ... DCA confirmed anomaly +0.5, DCA scores are therefore final ...

 

(added 1230z May 1) ... NYC and BOS confirmed at --0.7 and 0.0 as per provisional so those scores are final ... all others need slight adjustments. These are the confirmed anomalies for the month:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+0.5 __--0.7 __ 0.0 ____ --0.4 __ +0.7 __--0.1 ___ +1.6 _ +2.1 _ +1.7

 

Final scores for month posted (post 30) and annual scores (post 37) will be updated by 1630z, I hope.