NNE Thread: Heading into the Heart of Winter

[skierinvermont]

I would pay $100 for the 18z NAM to verify. Would be the best skiing of my life. Driving up tomorrow to Sugarbush to ski 27-29. Would be epic. 1-2 feet for the greens except stowe north.

[shaper]

GYX just issued a Blizzard Watch for my area for Sunday nite and Monday

[bobbutts]

GYX just issued a Blizzard Watch for my area for Sunday nite and Monday

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 INCHES OR MORE ARE FORECAST. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

[MaineJayhawk]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 INCHES OR MORE ARE FORECAST. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

The AFD mentions these totals ...

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SOME

LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 18 INCHES.

[red]

YES!!! Blizzard watches all around. cheers!!! Looking good.

[mahk_webstah]

The AFD mentions these totals ...

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SOME

LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 18 INCHES.

Took a break and worked out and came back to this! So much for GYX going conservative! I saw that 18ZNAM qpf...wow!

[wxeyeNH]

Im in Southern Grafton County just 5 miles outside of the blizzard watch area. I always really believe in trends and the trend is more and more north. Almost would rather be up here now than in metro Boston as if the trend continues it will be Central New England in the bullseye and not further south with poss mixing issues. Boy N/C NE ski areas need this. Saves the Christmas week as people can get up here tomorrow and enjoy the great conditions after Monday. What a nice change to see all models in agreement. Its funny us weather nuts live all years to enjoy a 12-24 hour period of extreme weather. I almost like times like this afternoon when you know its coming but hasn't started. Like the day before a big trip that has been in the planning for years.

Enjoy,

Gene

PS The only thing that is screwing up my enjoyment is I just found out I have to have open heart difficult surgery ASAP. Wish that was not on my mind so I could enjoy this. Anyhow its fixable after a few months to recover. Guess it will be nice to be on the sofa model watching and enjoying storms through the window.

Merry Chistmas and Happy New Year to everyone!

[MaineJayhawk]

Im in Southern Grafton County just 5 miles outside of the blizzard watch area. I always really believe in trends and the trend is more and more north. Almost would rather be up here now than in metro Boston as if the trend continues it will be Central New England in the bullseye and not further south with poss mixing issues. Boy N/C NE ski areas need this. Saves the Christmas week as people can get up here tomorrow and enjoy the great conditions after Monday. What a nice change to see all models in agreement. Its funny us weather nuts live all years to enjoy a 12-24 hour period of extreme weather. I almost like times like this afternoon when you know its coming but hasn't started. Like the day before a big trip that has been in the planning for years.

Enjoy,

Gene

PS The only thing that is screwing up my enjoyment is I just found out I have to have open heart difficult surgery ASAP. Wish that was not on my mind so I could enjoy this. Anyhow its fixable after a few months to recover. Guess it will be nice to be on the sofa model watching and enjoying storms through the window.

Merry Chistmas and Happy New Year to everyone!

Wow, that's a stunner on Xmas. Good luck with it and your recovery.

[mreaves]

Im in Southern Grafton County just 5 miles outside of the blizzard watch area. I always really believe in trends and the trend is more and more north. Almost would rather be up here now than in metro Boston as if the trend continues it will be Central New England in the bullseye and not further south with poss mixing issues. Boy N/C NE ski areas need this. Saves the Christmas week as people can get up here tomorrow and enjoy the great conditions after Monday. What a nice change to see all models in agreement. Its funny us weather nuts live all years to enjoy a 12-24 hour period of extreme weather. I almost like times like this afternoon when you know its coming but hasn't started. Like the day before a big trip that has been in the planning for years.

Enjoy,

Gene

PS The only thing that is screwing up my enjoyment is I just found out I have to have open heart difficult surgery ASAP. Wish that was not on my mind so I could enjoy this. Anyhow its fixable after a few months to recover. Guess it will be nice to be on the sofa model watching and enjoying storms through the window.

Merry Chistmas and Happy New Year to everyone!

Good luck wxeye. Us NNEr's are few and far between. We need all of us we can get.

As for this event, I can almost look out my window and see where the winter storm watches are posted. It looks like Allenson could get some decent accumulation. I'd like to see a little more NW trend but not at the expense of our Maine friends. If I could get 6 inches, I'd be pretty happy. Hopefully they can verify the blizzard warnins further south.

Edit: Good thing this isn't the SNE thread, them there's some easy pickins!

[powderfreak]

I would pay $100 for the 18z NAM to verify. Would be the best skiing of my life. Driving up tomorrow to Sugarbush to ski 27-29. Would be epic. 1-2 feet for the greens except stowe north.

I like the strong H85 winds coming around to the NNW for the second half of the storm. Major, major upslope enhancement Jay Peak to I89 and maybe down to Sugarbush. I'm down in Albany for this one, liking the 18z GFS and NAM, lol.

Will be heading back to Stowe on Monday afternoon. I'm not sure how much skiing I'm going to do this week though, the holiday crowds are just plain annoying (but yet pay our bills in a big way, haha). I wish this was storm was happening on some other week when its just a hundred locals and you enjoying feet of powder on thousands of acres of Manny wilderness.

This stuff is going to get skied out extremely quickly and there are going to be some major wind holds that the tourists will not like lol. I think most of the ski resorts in New England go on wind hold tomorrow afternoon and especially on Monday. It wouldn't surprise me if some resorts can't even open on Monday morning due to the wind.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah I am afraid of wind holds too, I am glad to hear your opinion on that because I don't usually pay too much attention to winds. On the other hand it will slow down the skiing off process and also the winds and cold keep a lot of people in the base lodge. I hate the crowds, but this was the only time my friends could go. Sugarbush isn't usually too bad with the crowds, I can almost always find a lift without a line with some good terrain.

I think BTV needs to extend their watches northwards after these 18z runs.

[sgottmann]

Yeah I am afraid of wind holds too, I am glad to hear your opinion on that because I don't usually pay too much attention to winds. On the other hand it will slow down the skiing off process and also the winds and cold keep a lot of people in the base lodge. I hate the crowds, but this was the only time my friends could go. Sugarbush isn't usually too bad with the crowds, I can almost always find a lift without a line with some good terrain.

I agree about Sugarbush but it will be busy everywhere due to the Holiday. Looks like the best snows will be Southern Vt. Any chance in substantial upslope at Sugarbush or Killington to maximize the powder experience??? We just need the storm to continue to head a little bit further north/northwest. The back edge of the precip dries up quickly per the models.

[mahk_webstah]

Hey Gene...sounds like you have a good perspective on your health challenge. Best wishes.

I don't share your optimism on the north trend. Feel like I will end up with 8-12 and the best will be se s and w. But I hope for the up to 18 that GYX has talked about...I'm in central merrimack so if I do well good chance you do well.

Cheers,

Mark

[gravitylover]

This stuff is going to get skied out extremely quickly and there are going to be some major wind holds that the tourists will not like lol. I think most of the ski resorts in New England go on wind hold tomorrow afternoon and especially on Monday. It wouldn't surprise me if some resorts can't even open on Monday morning due to the wind.

Blah blah wind hold. Just go to Magic I can't remember the last time the Red Chair went down because of wind.

[Allenson]

WxeyeNH--good luck, mate.

Boom, storm. Blizzard warnings for the coast.... Too tired to type now but back in the morn.

[dmcginvt]

I like the strong H85 winds coming around to the NNW for the second half of the storm. Major, major upslope enhancement Jay Peak to I89 and maybe down to Sugarbush. I'm down in Albany for this one, liking the 18z GFS and NAM, lol.

Will be heading back to Stowe on Monday afternoon. I'm not sure how much skiing I'm going to do this week though, the holiday crowds are just plain annoying (but yet pay our bills in a big way, haha). I wish this was storm was happening on some other week when its just a hundred locals and you enjoying feet of powder on thousands of acres of Manny wilderness.

This stuff is going to get skied out extremely quickly and there are going to be some major wind holds that the tourists will not like lol. I think most of the ski resorts in New England go on wind hold tomorrow afternoon and especially on Monday. It wouldn't surprise me if some resorts can't even open on Monday morning due to the wind.

I work Sun, Tues, Weds, Fri this week. I work in the Race dept on Gondolier/Exhibition Hill (NASTAR). Obviously we dont open if the Gondy doesn't run. Or if there is too much snow (unless it's a private race). Of course this is Xmas week so maybe we'ill open even if there is too much snow. I say anyone who wants to run gates on a powder day is a tool!! My experience is, as long as you get there for first chair, you can get quite a few sweet runs before the yellow flag goes up and the lines are way too long for us locals. Most tourists are lazy and like having breakfast. But I get it, January midweek dumps are the best with freshies to be found 2 or 3 days after a storm thanks to our enemy and friend, the wind. Either way I deal with the tourists the whole time and find them to be mostly pretty fun people even if the are a bunch of noobs. I love my part-time job. Actually more often than not it's the parents of the MMSC ski racers who piss me off:). Their chit dont stink.

Dave

[tamarack]

PS The only thing that is screwing up my enjoyment is I just found out I have to have open heart difficult surgery ASAP. Wish that was not on my mind so I could enjoy this. Anyhow its fixable after a few months to recover. Guess it will be nice to be on the sofa model watching and enjoying storms through the window.

Merry Chistmas and Happy New Year to everyone!

Three years ago my wife and I learned she needed open-heart surgery, on an hour's notice (she was already at Maine Med for a heart catheterization, which discovered the huge blockage in her left coronary artery.) Operation and recovery went just as routinely as possible for something so amazing, and we hope the same will be true for you.

[Lava Rock]

what the heck? storm warnings were posted awhile ago, now back to winter storm watch. only forecasting 6-10" for my area. is this thing shifting east?

[MaineJayhawk]

what the heck? storm warnings were posted awhile ago, now back to winter storm watch. only forecasting 6-10" for my area. is this thing shifting east?

No idea what you are talking about. We're under a blizzard watch. What is your source?

[j24vt]

1.7" today.

[klw]

Back to the old thread after the foray into the blizzard. We only got 5 or so inches in the storm but that is a total estimate. We had powder on the ground before and the drifting was significant. It hurts when it is only ten mile to where there was 18 inches. Oh well another day another storm.

[dendrite]

We've warmed up quite a bit today hitting 28F so far. As a result we've been able to mix a few higher gusts down in the last hour...just hit 37mph. I was feeling hopeful that we could hold the cold in the foothills a bit through Friday, but I'm losing confidence in that. Hopefully it's just a few hours of 40s each afternoon. It'll be dry Thu-Fri with light winds so we should be able to radiate into the 10s each morning and struggle to mix out the cold until late morning. Then before sunset we get the quick crash from 40-45 straight to the 20s in 2-3 hours. Snow surface temps should remain relatively cold though despite 2m pushing the 40s. Sat/Sun will suck with the rain and warmer wetbulbs, but at least we'll get a quick fropa. The snowpack should survive and start to take on its glacier-like appearance.

[wxeyeNH]

We've warmed up quite a bit today hitting 28F so far. As a result we've been able to mix a few higher gusts down in the last hour...just hit 37mph. I was feeling hopeful that we could hold the cold in the foothills a bit through Friday, but I'm losing confidence in that. Hopefully it's just a few hours of 40s each afternoon. It'll be dry Thu-Fri with light winds so we should be able to radiate into the 10s each morning and struggle to mix out the cold until late morning. Then before sunset we get the quick crash from 40-45 straight to the 20s in 2-3 hours. Snow surface temps should remain relatively cold though despite 2m pushing the 40s. Sat/Sun will suck with the rain and warmer wetbulbs, but at least we'll get a quick fropa. The snowpack should survive and start to take on its glacier-like appearance.

I am convinced the snowcover will surive. Once it becomes glaciated it takes a lot to destruct. Yesterdays wind was just surreal with the blowing snow. The main body of Newfound Lake is still open and with a north wind coming down the 7 mile open area caused the highest waves people had ever seen according to the old timers. Some waves were estimated over 6 feet!

[J.Spin]

I looked outside a little while ago and it was snowing lightly, flakes are small at 1-2 mm in diameter. The NWS didn’t say much about it and there’s not much visible on radar so I’ll just see if there’s anything on the board in the morning.

[Allenson]

Odd morning out there--went to bed under crystal clear skies with still a fair bit of wind from time to time and woke up to low clouds, gloom, freezing drizzle and a few flakes coming down...

Finished up with about 6 inches at my place. Enough on the ground now to let the snowmobile trail groomer come through last night to pack the trails. Still not enough snow to ride but the base should be set and ready for some more, hopefully the warmup doesn't put us back at square one.

Groomers came through Corinth yesterday. The wife, a friend and myself skied on one trail right after they came through. We were all like, 'hey, thanks!'.

It'd figure that a great event would happen when Dartmouth wasn't in session.

I can't believe how well Leb did with this one--haven't been to Hanover since the storm but a coworker who lives a few miles north of town and emailed me reporting 14" or so...

Back for Winter Term?

[mreaves]

Odd morning out there--went to bed under crystal clear skies with still a fair bit of wind from time to time and woke up to low clouds, gloom, freezing drizzle and a few flakes coming down...

Groomers came through Corinth yesterday. The wife, a friend and myself skied on one trail right after they came through. We were all like, 'hey, thanks!'.

I can't believe how well Leb did with this one--haven't been to Hanover since the storm but a coworker who lives a few miles north of town and emailed me reporting 14" or so...

Back for Winter Term?

When I first looked out this morning, I saw that the carshad a coating of snow and when I went out, I noticed that there was also a coating of ice as well. There was a fine snow/snizzle falling all the way in to work. The roads were a little bit greasy as well. As J. Spin noted, there wasn't much mentioned about it in any forecasts that I saw. In some ways I like the fact that we got an unexpected frozen precip "event". That seems to be a better direction than last year when we would expect snow and get cirrus clouds.

[J.Spin]

I looked outside a little while ago and it was snowing lightly, flakes are small at 1-2 mm in diameter. The NWS didn’t say much about it and there’s not much visible on radar so I’ll just see if there’s anything on the board in the morning.

It seems that it did continue to snow very lightly overnight, and others are reporting snow as well, so it’s fairly widespread. Listening to Roger Hill this morning, it turns out that it’s coming from a very weak system passing through the area. When I measured the accumulation on the snowboard this morning I found that we had reached a measurable tenth of an inch of accumulation. However, it wasn’t just the small flakes that I’d seen last night, the snow was a bit crunchy, as if some non-frozen material had been incorporated at some point. Listening to Roger and checking in with the NWS, it seems that there’s been a bit of freezing drizzle with this system as well. The NWS has a special statement out:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

730 AM EST WED DEC 29 2010

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-291600-

NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

730 AM EST WED DEC 29 2010

...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF THIN BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES. SOME SNOW FLURRIES MAY ALSO MIX IN AT TIMES WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL THIS MORNING...PLEASE SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.

Driving in to Burlington this morning the roads seemed to be in good shape (presumably treated) and the precipitation I did see in Waterbury and Burlington was mostly snow, but some places have had more drizzle than others so take care while driving.

[VtWeatherWatcher]

Woke up to freezing drizzle this morning around 7:00am. Took the dogs out in the woods and could hear it pinging off the trees. Roads were in good shape on commute up to Stowe. Less drizzle and more light snow further north.

[whitemountainhiker]

No freezing drizzle in Lebanon, but some snow flurries than amounted to a very light dusting on the cars. Nice stuff :)I haven't seen the light of day since 10AM, but I'll be out around 3ish, so hopefully things will have cleared out a bit. It wwas very gloomy this AM. But....relatively mild.

[powderfreak]

Woke up this morning to about a quarter inch of snow and it was snowing at a pretty decent clip.... flakes were extremely small and it was like a thick snow-fog in the headlights on my drive up the road to the ski area at 5:15am.

It was clear when I went to bed last night at 9pm and all forecasts were showing partly to mostly sunny skies for today, so you can imagine my surprise when I woke up and strolled outside to see it snowing at a steady clip with a light accumulation.

Unfortunately, in the couple of miles up to the mountain, I watched the overnight snowfall dwindle and turn to more of a freezing mist and snow grains. Around 6am I looked back outside and it was all snow again at the mountain.... but pretty much all day we've seen a mix of light snow (snow grains, probably) and freezing mist. I can't even really call it freezing drizzle or rain because the particles are so extremely small... you can't even see them really, you just notice it freezing on your goggles as you ski.

What an odd day...there is a ton of low level moisture that must be trapped under an inversion or something because there's absolutely no lift to generate true snowflakes.

I must say though, the skiing on natural snow trails was pretty good today as the freezing mist, light snow grains, and whatever other moisture fell from the sky seemed to add just a little bit of substance to the surface snow that was pure 0-degree fluff from the recent storm. It allowed you to ski a bit more aggressively and was fun because if you pushed, the snow almost seemed to push back (if that makes any sense).