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NNE Thread: Heading into the Heart of Winter


powderfreak

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I'd be happy to have it go to you - you deserve it! Radar shows it is still snowing at my place, which is great. I am in Boston going home this afternoon. Man does the radar look good for Portland now eh?

Eric, you in Portland today?

Any report from anyone around Concord?

Thanks Mark, I am at work and been quite busy so i have not been on much, We have +SN right now and by eyeballing looks like we have around 5" here will take a measurement here soon..... :scooter:

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Wow, BDL will be at 56"? I'm a good 10" behind

I'd be happy to have it go to you - you deserve it! Radar shows it is still snowing at my place, which is great. I am in Boston going home this afternoon. Man does the radar look good for Portland now eh?

Eric, you in Portland today?

Any report from anyone around Concord?

5.5" at 11:30 in boscawen

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+SN in AUG the past hr, under a nice band of 25-30 dbz, appears to be backing off to moderate now, perhaps 4" new. Good stuff hasn't gotten to the home front, and may not make it that far NW of AUG. This could be another in the series of storms (almost all of them except for earlier this week) where AUG gets 2X MBY, but even 3-4" will be nice.

Edit (at 12:20): That band has expanded nicely, +SN continues in AUG, but looks even more like it will pivot out south of MBY.

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GYX says keep that fire burning:

A dry but very cold period is upcoming for the region saturday

through early next week as the polar vortex dips across northern New england.

The coldest days will be sunday and monday where the

Area during that time. Lows below 20 below zero will be likely in

Spots in the far interior. Monday night may be the coldest night

With sfc high pressure cresting overhead. If clouds do not

Thicken monday night...A few lows may touch 30 below in nrn nh and

Wrn me.

and maybe got those roofs cleared?

The 00z global models and ensembles are indicating the potential

For a strong east coast storm later wed and thurs. We will

Continue to keep an eye on this as the potential for copious

Amounts of wintry precipitation and strong winds will be possible

During this time.

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Yeah the synoptic portion of these events always gets old quickly, haha. As of 8am here in Stowe it looks like we've got around an inch.

I already know what'll happen... we'll get 1-2" on .1-.2" of QPF, then this afternoon or tonight out of nowhere we'll pull 3" of upslope on a trace amount of liquid. We may end up with similar amounts to some people further south and east when all is said and done, but the actual liquid added to the snowpack will be like a third.

I'm getting antsy for a 1"+ QPF event up here, lol. Still, I shouldn't complain because we seem to be doing quite well for a lack of synoptic storm hits.

Whoops, I just noticed when you quoted my obs that I had heavy snow in there, looks like I just forgot to change it when I pasted it in from precious obs. It would have been nice if there was a burst this morning, but in actuality the intensity of the snowfall was only light; I changed it in the original post for the records.

But you totally nailed it Scott in terms of how things have gone; snowfall numbers may end up similar thanks to upslope, but liquid will be less. No complaints of course with the way the skiing has been, we'll just want synoptic snow to keep building that base for the spring. Roger Hill was optimistic this morning about the potential to get something a little more substantial in terms of synoptic snow out of next week's system, but we'll just have to see how it goes.

In terms of snowfall with this event, here in Burlington it snowed enough this morning subsequent to my arrival that it actually produced a decent coating on the cars (perhaps an additional inch?) so I’m anxious to see if we got enough at home to hit the 100-inch mark. Either way, we’re doing pretty well and have the potential to end up with a big season depending on how the rest of this month and February through May play out. I just checked, and amazingly, we’re only about 6 to 7 inches behind our “record” ’07-’08 pace for snowfall. We hit 100 inches earlier in that season, but January ‘08 was actually pretty weak for snowfall (and we have been gaining on it hard this season, even without getting nailed by synoptic storms). We are actually less than 2 inches away from having the snowiest January in my records; I was totally stunned to see that based on where the big snows have been. To a large degree, the ’07-’08 season was really set up by a big November-December combo (86.0 inches) and was solid, but not outrageous beyond that. We had hardly any snow in April that season either (the last three have sort of gone that way) so a decent April would help out too. If November hadn’t been such a dud for snowfall this season, we would be close to record pace for snowfall in terms of what I’ve seen at my location over the past 4 seasons.

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GYX says keep that fire burning:

and maybe got those roofs cleared?

Funny you mentioned that--I was thinking I'd do a little roof work tomorrow. We have a standing-seam/metal roof but it's been cold enough so that much of it hasn't slid yet. I've got a couple spots where I'm getting some ice build-up and icicles. Time to get the roof rake out!

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Just went out and measured. 7.5" on the ground and still heavy heavy snow. I don't think there is anyway we reach the 18-22" inch totals they have in the forecast now, unless this band doesn't move for the next few hours.

That's the nicest band I've seen since the 2/22-23/09 event, with lots of 30-40 dbz areas, but I think its best has mostly passed by you, and is about to obliterate the Haynesville Woods. Somebody in that area should see several hr of accum rates 2-3"/hr.

Snow is back to (barely) moderate, with much diminished flake size. Without having been outside (and with no good visual reference for depth), I'm guessing that AUG had 4-5" from 11A to 2 P. If so, we'd be in the 7-9" range for storm total. Given the radar picture, another 1" here would be all we could expect. State offices have been released as of 3 PM; maybe by staying a bit I can avoid the rush.

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GYX giving next weds-thurs a little yackity yack..........

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OVERALL...LONG TERM FORECAST NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 24 HOURS

AGO...AS COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE IN THE NERN

CONUS THANKS TO PERSISTENT +PNA PATTERN OVER NOAM. ALTHOUGH IT

LOOKS TO REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET AND DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT

WEEK...AN VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL DROP INTO NRN ME/NH SUNDAY INTO

ON THE HEELS OF A THIRD 500MB TROUGH IN FOUR DAYS. WIND CHILLS

WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS

PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT. IT LOOKS AS IF WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH

SUNDAY EVENING...SO THAT SOME DECOUPLING CAN OCCUR AND LOWS WILL

DROP OFF TO NEAR -10F ON THE COAST...AND TO NEAR -30F IN THE

MOUNTAINS. MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE MAXES STRUGGLING ABOVE 10F ON THE

COAST...AND COULD SEE SOME BLO ZERO HIGHS IN THE MTNS. AIR TEMPS

WILL BE SIMILAR MON NIGHT...AND COULD DROP EVEN LOWER IN THE

SHELTERED VALLEYS.

THE COLD HIGH MODIFIES A BIT ON TUESDAY...AS IT SHIFTS EAST...AND

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW

AS A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO TRACK SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COAST. WAY TOO

EARLY TO PIN DOWN A TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BIG

STORM IS THERE.

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This band is ridiculous. Just about white out conditions out there. Huge flakes pouring down. Just cleared about 4 inches off the deck after clearing it about 45 minutes ago. If this keeps up 20 inches is not out of the question for sure. Time to snow blow before it gets too deep.

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This band is ridiculous. Just about white out conditions out there. Huge flakes pouring down. Just cleared about 4 inches off the deck after clearing it about 45 minutes ago. If this keeps up 20 inches is not out of the question for sure. Time to snow blow before it gets too deep.

At your distance from CAR, the radar must be showing what's about 5,000' or more above you, so the ++SN continues for a significant time after the band appears to have moved east. 4" in 45 min = about 5.3"/hr. :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

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As an aside... at Stowe we (as in myself and a ski patroller) are really, really trying to set up a fully transparent snow and weather reporting system on Mount Mansfield. We have the snow plots established and they have been established for a few years but we have not utilized them in an organized, daily manner. I'm going to do a write up on our plots with photos, and pose it to the New England forum for comments and suggestions, but regardless, we'd like to get a lot more scientific with how we report snow and weather here at the mountain. We live and play on this mountain and everyone around here lives and dies with the snowfall... so why not set it up and become "official" with how we do it. I have talked with the NWS office in Burlington via email and we would like to turn this into a co-op or CoCoRASH station which would be pretty cool.

A couple of things in the works are potentially a live camera powered by solar, and focused on one of our snowboards with a ruler, so people can actually remotely watch the snow pile up. You see this a lot at ski areas out west and also a lot of the lake effect snow belt areas have snowmobile operations that utilize this type of thing. We also want to display our weather stations live on the web, which would give folks live access to temp/Td/RH/wind data at 3,600ft...2,500ft...and 1,500ft.

I'm always looking for suggestions as to how to report and present this sort of information. This mountain gets a lot of snow, and we want to prove it so people can no longer claim it as made up "marketing" numbers.

To start, I'm going to post our daily snowfall and snow depth information (on the days that I work):

3,000ft plot...24hr New: 2"...Depth: 38"

1,500ft plot...24hr New: 2"...Depth: 18"

That’s great to hear Scott, it’s been amazing to me that as important as the snowfall is for the ski areas around here, there has been so little interest in documenting it publicly at a very high level. It was great that Jay Peak would post all their daily snowfall on their page, but the next step is to get the liquid equivalent as well and get a sense for the quality of the snow. As an example, the Alta snowfall history page is very useful:

http://www.alta.com/pages/snowfallhistory.php

In terms of the live camera and measurement setup, that would also be great. For that sort of thing I always think of what Snowbird has set up. Those that have not seen it should check it out:

http://www.snowbird.com/snowcam.html

I’d love to see some of that stuff around here – a more rigorous level of snow monitoring would be appreciated by not just skiers, but all types of winter recreationalists, and I have to think it would be a great investment in the VT snowsports economy. As an avid skier, if I was to see a real professional level of publicly available snow monitoring taking place at a resort, it would signify to me that they take their snow seriously, they probably get a lot of it, and it sounds like the kind of place I’d want to visit. Now not every skier is concerned about snowfall like some of us, but having data like that is yet another think that is going to keep people visiting the website and thinking about the resort. It would also be nice to have some more public data available on Mt. Mansfield for snowfall aside from what is taken in association with stake. The snow depth data from the stake is great, but as for the snowfall data… it seems like that is a real crapshoot. You can probably recall some from this season, but it seems like there have been some really weird measurements over the past several weeks.

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This band is ridiculous. Just about white out conditions out there. Huge flakes pouring down. Just cleared about 4 inches off the deck after clearing it about 45 minutes ago. If this keeps up 20 inches is not out of the question for sure. Time to snow blow before it gets too deep.

I just saw that sucker on the radar--good for you folks over yonder.

Vim-rootin'-Tootin' is missin' out, yo!

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