mreaves Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 -9 here this morning. Picked up an inch and half of snow with the cold front passage yesterday. Spent the day at a friends camp in Hardwick, snowed most of the afternoon, coming down quite hard at times. Roger Hill is calling for 3 - 7 inches in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 -9F in Stowe village at 800ft -3F at 1,550ft base of ski resort -13F at 3,600ft top of FourRunner Quad chairlift Storm total from clipper (starting at 12pm Saturday) is 9" at 1,700ft and 14" at 3,600ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Event totals: 4.9” Snow/0.16” L.E. Monday 1/17/2011 6:00 A.M. update: We finished off the clipper with a couple more tenths of snow since the 4:00 P.M. wiping of the board yesterday. Both this clipper and the one from Jan 4th have been quite decent, bringing about 5 inches each. Now it is clear and cold; the temperature was at -5.1F as of observation time, but has still been dropping. Wherever it ends will be our coldest of the season, as the previous lowest was -3.8 on Dec 10th. It’s nice to see the watches up all the way north to Washington County. It sounds like the QPF is still in question based on the morning BTV discussion, but if northwest flow develops on Wednesday that would probably help the northern mountains: QPF: THE 00Z NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF ACRS OUR FA BUT 06Z NAM SHOWS BTWN 0.75" SOUTHERN VT TO 0.35 CPV...WHILE GFS HAS 0.33" AT BTV...0.60" AT MPV...AND 0.85" AT VSF. THE SREF HAS BTWN 1.0" AND 1.25" AT ALL 3 SITES...WHILE THE BTV12 HAS 0.60" AT BTV...0.75" AT MPV...AND NEAR 1.0" AT VSF...AND THE BTV4 SHOWS MUCH LESS WITH NOTHING AT BTV/MPV AND 0.16" AT VSF. GIVEN ENSEMBLE TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OVER THE CAPE...AND USING A MODEL BLEND FOR QPF WOULD SUPPORT BTWN 0.75 AND 1.0"...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT ZNS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SIDE OF THE GREEN MTNS...WITH 0.50 TO 0.75 MPV AREA...AND BTWN 0.20 AND 0.40" CPV AND PARTS OF THE NEK DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE WHITES...WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" ACRS NNY. HOWEVER...AS NW UPSLOPE FLW DEVELOPS ON WEDS...WESTERN SLOPES WL SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY INTO WEDS NIGHT. Based on BTV’s current storm forecast map it looks like accumulations for our area would be in the 8 to 9 inch range. I’ve added a couple of the BTV graphics below: Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: -5.1 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Finally down to -1F here. Hopefully we get a nice drop spike before sunrise. same phenomenon here, just hit -2. Tonight looks like the coldest with the high cresting today. maybe we hit -10 tonight. Loving the look of the storm. You think we might have some good ratios on the front end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 It’s nice to see the watches up all the way north to Washington County. It sounds like the QPF is still in question based on the morning BTV discussion, but if northwest flow develops on Wednesday that would probably help the northern mountains: QPF: THE 00Z NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF ACRS OUR FA BUT 06Z NAM SHOWS BTWN 0.75" SOUTHERN VT TO 0.35 CPV...WHILE GFS HAS 0.33" AT BTV...0.60" AT MPV...AND 0.85" AT VSF. THE SREF HAS BTWN 1.0" AND 1.25" AT ALL 3 SITES...WHILE THE BTV12 HAS 0.60" AT BTV...0.75" AT MPV...AND NEAR 1.0" AT VSF...AND THE BTV4 SHOWS MUCH LESS WITH NOTHING AT BTV/MPV AND 0.16" AT VSF. GIVEN ENSEMBLE TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OVER THE CAPE...AND USING A MODEL BLEND FOR QPF WOULD SUPPORT BTWN 0.75 AND 1.0"...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT ZNS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SIDE OF THE GREEN MTNS...WITH 0.50 TO 0.75 MPV AREA...AND BTWN 0.20 AND 0.40" CPV AND PARTS OF THE NEK DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE WHITES...WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" ACRS NNY. HOWEVER...AS NW UPSLOPE FLW DEVELOPS ON WEDS...WESTERN SLOPES WL SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LIKELY INTO WEDS NIGHT. Thanks for posting the graphic, J.Spin. I'm still not sold on this event being anything overly impressive... I'm surprised the SREF had over 1" at all 3 sites (BTV/MPV/VSF) but I'm leaning towards the drier side of QPF up here. I envision this being a compact area of steadier/heavier precipitation where the bulk misses us to the southeast, but we are left with light 1-3"/2-4" snows before the NW upslope flow snowmaking system kicks in. Anyway, it'll be nice to add any amount of QPF to the snowpack that we can get... even a quarter inch would add some substance to the ridiculously light fluff that fell with this clipper. It was very photogenic snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 same phenomenon here, just hit -2. Tonight looks like the coldest with the high cresting today. maybe we hit -10 tonight. Loving the look of the storm. You think we might have some good ratios on the front end? Hit -2.0F here too. Up to -0.2F now.Ratios will sorta suck like a typical SWFE. Just expect an average of 10:1. Heck...it may even end up 9:1 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 -7.6 F was our low, Expecting a pretty good dose of cement here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hit -2.0F here too. Up to -0.2F now. Ratios will sorta suck like a typical SWFE. Just expect an average of 10:1. Heck...it may even end up 9:1 or something. I was hoping for some fluff on the front end, knowing it would get cementy on the back end. Re Friday, who knows....trends have been good for us lately. It is a Nina and there isn't much blocking so it could very well trend nw. I have the option of being here or in Philly thurs-Fri. I think you know the main decision criteria.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Thanks for posting the graphic, J.Spin. I'm still not sold on this event being anything overly impressive... I'm surprised the SREF had over 1" at all 3 sites (BTV/MPV/VSF) but I'm leaning towards the drier side of QPF up here. I envision this being a compact area of steadier/heavier precipitation where the bulk misses us to the southeast, but we are left with light 1-3"/2-4" snows before the NW upslope flow snowmaking system kicks in. Anyway, it'll be nice to add any amount of QPF to the snowpack that we can get... even a quarter inch would add some substance to the ridiculously light fluff that fell with this clipper. It was very photogenic snow, lol. You know scott, I was thinking that i'm not sold on the qpf migration north of the Rutland area but after watching the last coastal get sucked up under the 500mb low and dragged to the NW so much more so than the models predicted I'm wary. Now there is much less of a 500mb feature in this system but with a track right over NYC I think a decent amount of moisture makes it even as far as Camels Hump. Something like a 6-8 inch snowfall seems pretty reasonable for that region with closer to a foot down by Kmart and Magic Mtn. At least that's my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Closer to -10 for MBY. The breezes lasted well into the night. Hasn't quite made it out of the single numbers by 10 AM. Looking more and more like the warmer surface temps won't make it here tomorrow night. Snow to sleetfest? Might be the coldest air of the season following Friday's hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Meant to note earlier this morning that we had a couple tenths yesterday afternoon with the frontal passage. Had a nice ski yesterday at a place galled Galusha Hill in Topsham, VT. It's an 1800', bare, windswept hill top just east of the Orange Heights that seperate the Connecticut River drainage from the Winooski/Champlain/St. Lawrence basin (mreaves might know where I'm talking about). It's a large tract of land owned by a timber outfit that maintains it for recreational purposes. There're even a couple cabins to rent and a yurt to boot. Yesterday though, we had the place to ourselves. Snow squalls approaching from the west, the 3000' Orange Heights becoming obscured: Southwest toward the top of Galusha Hill, squalls visible that way too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice pics, Allenson. I really enjoy seeing landscape shots of that part of Vermont as I'm not overly familiar with the topography, aside from what you can see from I-89. Looks like a nice mid-winter day in Vermont! Re: Tomorrow-Wednesday storm... 12z GFS and NAM have very, very big QPF differences up this way. GFS is a non-event with little to no QPF for the synoptic portion of the event (though it would give us a couple inches of upslope behind the storm)... while the NAM has up to a half inch of QPF and would probably be a 3-6" snowfall before any upslope. Overall, I'm thinking we will be too far north for this one and I bet the Winooski Valley/I89 corridor (up this way, northwest of MPV) will be the divider between 6"+ and much lesser amounts just to the north of that. I'm forecasting a storm total (upslope included) of 3-5" at Stowe, though I bet Killington and some of the southern VT areas pick up 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice pics, Allenson. I really enjoy seeing landscape shots of that part of Vermont as I'm not overly familiar with the topography, aside from what you can see from I-89. Looks like a nice mid-winter day in Vermont! Re: Tomorrow-Wednesday storm... 12z GFS and NAM have very, very big QPF differences up this way. GFS is a non-event with little to no QPF for the synoptic portion of the event (though it would give us a couple inches of upslope behind the storm)... while the NAM has up to a half inch of QPF and would probably be a 3-6" snowfall before any upslope. Overall, I'm thinking we will be too far north for this one and I bet the Winooski Valley/I89 corridor (up this way, northwest of MPV) will be the divider between 6"+ and much lesser amounts just to the north of that. I'm forecasting a storm total (upslope included) of 3-5" at Stowe, though I bet Killington and some of the southern VT areas pick up 10-12". Those were sorta my thoughts- I went 6-10 K-Mart north to stowe to try to capture all the synoptic storm snow and mesoscale upslope snow during the entire event. Broad strokes. South of that- i'd say 8-14 along the summits of So. VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ha-ha, nice shot man. You took that literally right in front of my parent's place. They're in Florida right now though! Anyway, -8 atm. Coldest morning of the season. More snow on the way too: WS Watches up. Man did the Pats suck last night. First off that game was disgusting!!!! Second off, very cool about your parents place right there. It is so nice to have a place to skate without all the shoveling !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice pics, Allenson. I really enjoy seeing landscape shots of that part of Vermont as I'm not overly familiar with the topography, aside from what you can see from I-89. Thanks--it's just the good ol' rumpled hill country of eastern VT just west of the Connecticut River. This area that we were skiing at is interesting in that it's at a sort of 'triple-point' height-of-land: Galusha Hill divides the Waits River and Wells River basins (both of which flow into the CT River) and the aforementioned major drainage divide where one rain drop ends up in the St. Lawrence Seaway and the other, Long Island Sound, is quite close by. First off that game was disgusting!!!! Second off, very cool about your parents place right there. It is so nice to have a place to skate without all the shoveling !! Ugh, horrible football game. Pats laid the proverbial egg. But yeah, I'm thankful that my great-grandparents had the foresight to pick up a little piece of land on Lake Morey way back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Those were sorta my thoughts- I went 6-10 K-Mart north to stowe to try to capture all the synoptic storm snow and mesoscale upslope snow during the entire event. Broad strokes. South of that- i'd say 8-14 along the summits of So. VT. Yeah good call... I may be a bit low if upslope kicks it up a notch for a few hours as its really easy to put down several inches of low ratio snow at the end of a storm, during the brief period when synoptic moisture is still present and NW winds ramp up. The differences in some of the models is staggering though for us on the NW fringe... a few miles means the difference between a healthy, dense, synoptic snow or just flurries followed by upslope fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Meant to note earlier this morning that we had a couple tenths yesterday afternoon with the frontal passage. Had a nice ski yesterday at a place galled Galusha Hill in Topsham, VT. It's an 1800', bare, windswept hill top just east of the Orange Heights that seperate the Connecticut River drainage from the Winooski/Champlain/St. Lawrence basin (mreaves might know where I'm talking about). It's a large tract of land owned by a timber outfit that maintains it for recreational purposes. There're even a couple cabins to rent and a yurt to boot. Yesterday though, we had the place to ourselves. Snow squalls approaching from the west, the 3000' Orange Heights becoming obscured: Southwest toward the top of Galusha Hill, squalls visible that way too: I know the area a little bit. I've always thought of that area and the Groton State Forest area as almost the southernmost extension of the Northeast Kingdom. Very nice area and a real snow belt. I've seen over 4 feet on the ground up in hills in your picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Interesting differences in the forecasts between GYX and CAR at this point. Point and click on the CAR side gives 2-4 followed by mix and rain. Says it was updated at 3:39 PM. point and click in the GYX coverage area a few miles away and you get a forecast for 7-12 mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Interesting differences in the forecasts between GYX and CAR at this point. Point and click on the CAR side gives 2-4 followed by mix and rain. Says it was updated at 3:39 PM. point and click in the GYX coverage area a few miles away and you get a forecast for 7-12 mostly snow. One of the rare times where GYX brings the big stick to the plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Already down to 6.7F from a high of 14.1F. Should drop to 0F or a little lower before the clouds move in and put a halt to the cooling. I'm thinkngg 7-10" for my backyard with a little light FZRA/FZDZ glaze on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W1WFG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 One of the rare times where GYX brings the big stick to the plate. GYX's usual m.o. is to take the predicted qpf, halve it, and post it after a third of it has already come down, bringing new meaning to the word 'nowcast'. The present forecast is quite a departure. I wonder what entrails they're reading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Already down to 6.7F from a high of 14.1F. Should drop to 0F or a little lower before the clouds move in and put a halt to the cooling. I'm thinkngg 7-10" for my backyard with a little light FZRA/FZDZ glaze on top. How 'bout BML, HIE, and IZG (wrt to lows tonight)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How 'bout BML, HIE, and IZG (wrt to lows tonight)? Looks like clouds come in around midnight? I like the aggressive MAV for those sites. They will probably be -10F to -15F by 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 OK...BML and HIE just came in at 0F and -1F respectively for 22z. They are both already colder than what the MET has for 00z temps...so yeah, I am liking the MAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well, looks like it's gon' snow. I'm at 38.6" for the season and shouldn't take too much to crack 40". One milestone at a time. I know the area a little bit. I've always thought of that area and the Groton State Forest area as almost the southernmost extension of the Northeast Kingdom. Very nice area and a real snow belt. I've seen over 4 feet on the ground up in hills in your picture. I've said it before, but I call central and northern Orange Co., the 'Near Kingdom'. Not quite, but near. What does it for me is that we're in the spruce/fir zone with very few oaks, giving it that more northerly feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 OK...BML and HIE just came in at 0F and -1F respectively for 22z. They are both already colder than what the MET has for 00z temps...so yeah, I am liking the MAV. yeah I think the MAV's look pretty good. I don't think this thin cirrus moving over NH right now will have much of an effect of temp drop this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well CAR is sticking to its guns and not pulling the trigger on warnings as of the afternoon update. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH RATHER THAN TRANSITIONING TO WARNINGS FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...THE CURRENT GRIDS BARELY SUPPORT WARNING LEVEL SNOW FOR NORTHERN MAINE AS MOST QPF FALLS SOUTH. THESE GRIDS ALSO REDUCE SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL MAINE DUE TO SLEET AND FRZ RAIN WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER ICE OF THIS MIXTURE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS. THESE ICE AMOUNTS LINE UP WELL WITH HPC FORECASTS. LAST...CURRENT GRIDS SUPPORT LITTLE SNOW DOWNEAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO FRZ RAIN AND THEN ALL RAIN. THUS...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORIES FOR EITHER SNOW OR FRZ RAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT RATHER THAN WARNINGS IN ALL THE ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well CAR is sticking to its guns and not pulling the trigger on warnings as of the afternoon update. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH RATHER THAN TRANSITIONING TO WARNINGS FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...THE CURRENT GRIDS BARELY SUPPORT WARNING LEVEL SNOW FOR NORTHERN MAINE AS MOST QPF FALLS SOUTH. THESE GRIDS ALSO REDUCE SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL MAINE DUE TO SLEET AND FRZ RAIN WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER ICE OF THIS MIXTURE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK TOWARDS SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS. THESE ICE AMOUNTS LINE UP WELL WITH HPC FORECASTS. LAST...CURRENT GRIDS SUPPORT LITTLE SNOW DOWNEAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO FRZ RAIN AND THEN ALL RAIN. THUS...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORIES FOR EITHER SNOW OR FRZ RAIN WILL BE SUFFICIENT RATHER THAN WARNINGS IN ALL THE ZONES. Bummer for the dudes up north ... been a helluva couple of years for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah I think the MAV's look pretty good. I don't think this thin cirrus moving over NH right now will have much of an effect of temp drop this eve. BML -6F and HIE -5F at 23z. The MET is going to crash and burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 BML -6F and HIE -5F at 23z. The MET is going to crash and burn. -2 at KLEB. Frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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