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NNE Thread: Heading into the Heart of Winter


powderfreak

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I called it 9-12" this morning to be on the safe side (that's likely conservative), but ski patrol is just getting on the hill and will check the snow stakes for me as I'm dealing with wind hold issues. Wind has blown it all over the place so in all honesty its like 0-36".

We are like a mile away from Smugglers Notch and they are reporting 18-20"... they might have gotten that over there on the other side of the Notch, but there's no way there's 20" over here. Now that its light out and I can see and walk around to more sheltered spots, I have a feeling our actual amounts are in the 12-14" range. And that would fit with around a foot falling down in the village. However, I really hate over-estimating snowfall (I'm not sure why but that's a pet peeve of mine) and I've noticed around here folks seem to think we got more snow than we actually did. We played a game of guess the amount of snow that fell yesterday afternoon, and then measured the area, and everyone (5 people with me) over-estimated what the ruler actually said. Sure, the woods are likely buried with 20" of new snow but on the trails its probably like 6" from wind transport.

I really like Bolton Valley's reports and they are usually very accurate... they are reporting 11-14" of new snow in the past 24 hours and fits with what I think we have here. I'm still perplexed at the 20" at Smuggs and 19" at Jay as I would've though Okemo/Killington and points south would've gotten more than them, but then again, when its upslope fluffy snow, they very well could've gotten another 6-9" over us at Stowe and Bolton.

All in all this was a lot more snow up here in the north country than any model or forecasts had... really didn't expect a foot of snow in the village.

17 inches at whiteface which was no where near the forecast of 2-4. Reports from the hill and from a friend in Lake Placid verify its a true 17 inches. Must have been some kind of upslope on an east wind?

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17 inches at whiteface which was no where near the forecast of 2-4. Reports from the hill and from a friend in Lake Placid verify its a true 17 inches. Must have been some kind of upslope on an east wind?

Magic.

Stuff happens in the high peaks i'm not sure any weather watcher can explain.

I've seen them get 1 inch when feet were forecasted. I've seen them get 17 inches when 2-4 were forecasted.

It's a nuts place for wacko weather. Sometimes you just gotta admit the weather do what it wanna do.

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Magic.

Stuff happens in the high peaks i'm not sure any weather watcher can explain.

I've seen them get 1 inch when feet were forecasted. I've seen them get 17 inches when 2-4 were forecasted.

It's a nuts place for wacko weather. Sometimes you just gotta admit the weather do what it wanna do.

Skiing the face on saturday and gore on sunday, what do you think of this clipper and SW flow ahead of it? Good for 3-6?

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I added this post in the observations thread, but since that seems to be mostly done and we are transitioning, I also added it here:

Event totals: 12.6” Snow/0.97” L.E.

Friday 1/14/2011 6:00 A.M. update: The precipitation was just an occasional flurry yesterday evening when we were out shoveling, and there were some breaks in the clouds, but there was a resurgence in the snowfall overnight. I found 0.4 inches of fluff on the board this morning, and steady light snow was falling at observation time. I’m going to continue to throw accumulations with this snow into the Nor’easter, because there’s just not a well-defined new system to which I can add it. Checking the BTV NWS discussion, they say that there is a mid level vortex passing through that is prompting this activity, but also that the moisture is somewhat residual. I went back to the midnight version of the discussion and pasted a bit below:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

1242 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 748 PM EST THURSDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE 00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850MB...AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REMOVE TRAPPED MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS NEAR AND BELOW THIS INVERSION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A MID-LEVEL VORT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO VT OVERNIGHT. JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.

By the way – thanks BTV NWS for having so many previous versions of the discussion available; it’s really nice to be able to go back and see the meteorologists’ comments on where our various bouts of snow are coming from.

On that note, there’s more intense snowfall coming down here in Burlington, with pretty large flakes up to ¾” in diameter. Apparently that’s enhanced by the lake:

...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW COMING ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN IS ENHANCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN...CHITTENDEN...AND ADDISON COUNTIES OF VERMONT. WILL MENTION AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY FLURRIES.

The snowfall here is actually pretty substantial and is accumulating on the roads, but it’s so fluffy that is doesn’t seem to be an issue for driving. It is very scenic though.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 430.0

Snow Density: 2.5%

Temperature: 13.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 17.0 inches

Below I added BTV’s map and numbers from the Nor’easter since I hadn’t seen it here yet.

13JAN11A.jpg

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1036 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE AND
COCORAHS OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.
THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT 
WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                    SNOWFALL           OF 
                    /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CLINTON COUNTY...
  4 ESE PERU             7.6   600 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  PERU                   3.0   740 AM  1/13  AMATEUR RADIO           
  NNW SCHUYLER FALLS     2.0   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                

...ESSEX COUNTY...
  WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN    15.0   337 PM  1/12  ELEV 4361 FT            
  2 N LAKE PLACID       13.0   815 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  LAKE PLACID           10.0   615 PM  1/12  ESTIMATED 10-12 INCHES  
  1 S TICONDEROGA        8.0   848 AM  1/13  HAM RADIO               
  3 SSW MORIAH           7.0   545 PM  1/12  SPOTTER - 1100 FEET     

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
  1 ESE TUPPER LAKE      7.0   600 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                  
  1 SW MALONE            3.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...
  SW HANNAWA FALLS       3.9   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  EDWARDS                2.5   740 AM  1/13  AMATEUR RADIO           
  1 NW EDWARDS           2.5   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                

VERMONT

...ADDISON COUNTY...
  1 NNE GOSHEN          14.0   819 AM  1/13  PUBLIC                  
  2 NW LINCOLN          13.3   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  CORNWALL              13.3   500 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                  
  3 ENE VERGENNES       11.5   938 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  1 WNW ORWELL          11.0   955 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  2 NE SALISBURY        10.8   530 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                  
  2 N SALISBURY          7.5   500 PM  1/12  COOP OBSERVER           

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
  3 NNW SHEFFIELD        8.5   730 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  4 N WALDEN             7.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  2 SW SUTTON            6.6   920 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  SE SHEFFIELD           6.5   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  ST JOHNSBURY           5.6   400 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  2 NE SUTTON            5.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  4 N NEWARK             4.0   143 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
  JERICHO               15.5   734 AM  1/13  PUBLIC                  
  3 ENE HINESBURG       15.0   849 AM  1/13  HAM RADIO               
  HANKSVILLE            15.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  4 NNE UNDERHILL       13.8   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  1 ESE NASHVILLE       13.5   655 AM  1/13  NWS EMPLOYEE            
  3 SSE RICHMOND        13.0   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  2 NW WESTFORD         11.4   700 AM  1/13  NWS EMPLOYEE            
  SOUTH BURLINGTON       9.8   710 AM  1/13  NWS OFFICE              
  WILLISTON              9.8   737 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  2 NNW WILLISTON        9.0   645 AM  1/13  NWS EMPLOYEE            
  1 NW WILLISTON         7.0   500 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 
  1 N ESSEX JUNCTION     6.4   800 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...ESSEX COUNTY...
  GILMAN                 6.5   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  2 SSE EAST HAVEN       4.8   134 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  1 N ISLAND POND        4.0   900 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  ISLAND POND            2.0   138 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
  BAKERSFIELD           11.6   858 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  HIGHGATE CENTER        5.8   812 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  SWANTON                3.2   809 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  HIGHGATE FALLS         3.0   154 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  ENOSBURG FALLS         2.0   159 PM  1/12  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
  2 SSW JEFFERSONVILLE  20.0   800 AM  1/13  FAA EMPLOYEE            
  JEFFERSONVILLE        16.0   628 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  CAMBRIDGE             14.0  1200 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  MORRISVILLE           12.5   730 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                  
  1 NW SOUTH CAMBRIDGE  12.0   901 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 
  5 N JEFFERSONVILLE    11.0   850 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  3 NE HYDE PARK        11.0   630 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  SW STOWE               9.0   730 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  2 S STOWE              8.4   945 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 

...ORANGE COUNTY...
  RANDOLPH CENTER       11.0   934 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 
  2 WSW BROOKFIELD      10.0   745 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  UNION VILLAGE DAM     10.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  CORINTH                8.0   715 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  2 SW SOUTH VERSHIRE    6.0   900 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
  2 WNW STANNARD         8.3   430 PM  1/12  COCORAHS                
  7 SE MORGAN            8.1   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  1 WNW WESTFIELD        8.0   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  NNE CRAFTSBURY COMMO   8.0   800 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  3 SW JAY               8.0   634 AM  1/13  COOP OBSERVER           
  JAY PEAK               8.0   600 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  3 ENE BARTON           7.4   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  NEWPORT                6.5   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          

...RUTLAND COUNTY...
  DANBY FOUR CORNERS    14.0   830 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  CASTLETON             11.5   500 PM  1/12  JCT OF ROUTES 4 AND 30  
  RUTLAND               10.0  1218 PM  1/12  AIRPORT                 

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
  2 W WAITSFIELD        13.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  4 ENE CABOT           12.0   900 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  5 NNE WATERBURY       11.8   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  3 NW WATERBURY        11.5   600 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  2 SE WAITSFIELD       11.5   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  WATERBURY             10.5   739 AM  1/13  AMATEUR RADIO           
  3 NE WATERBURY        10.5   500 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  2 SW EAST CALAIS      10.3   600 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  1 SSW SOUTH WOODBURY  10.0   810 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  5 SW MARSHFIELD        9.8   545 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  4 WNW BERLIN           9.2   710 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  2 N NORTHFIELD         9.0   600 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  3 ENE MIDDLESEX        8.5   750 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  2 W WORCESTER          8.2   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  MORETOWN               8.0   210 PM  1/12                          
  2 NNE WATERBURY CENT   8.0   600 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 
  1 SE NORTH FAYSTON     7.5   630 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
  3 SSW NORTH SPRINGFI  16.0   645 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 
  1 WSW LUDLOW          13.8   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  1 N SPRINGFIELD       12.0   144 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 
  3 N POMFRET           11.1   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  3 S LUDLOW            11.0   700 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  N HARTLAND RES        11.0   700 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  2 WSW UNION VILLAGE    9.2   815 AM  1/13  PUBLIC                  
  WOODSTOCK              8.0   800 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          

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Not to be a Debbie for the Mainers but my forecast mentions rain in a mixed bag for next week and my experience has been that once rain is mentioned it does not go away.

Hey Debbie, Mine says wintery mix, I will go with that, It sounds better but we know whats involved in that without saying......

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Not to be a Debbie for the Mainers but my forecast mentions rain in a mixed bag for next week and my experience has been that once rain is mentioned it does not go away.

My forecast has the dreaded Rain AND Snow turning to Snow AND Rain. Still plenty of time for this to trend colder but you're right that R word has a way of hanging tough.

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Was down around -5 this AM and if the cirrus holds off, tonight might bring the season's first double digit negative. That's not particularly noteworthy, as this frost pocket has touched -20 or colder in 10 of 12 winters, not including this one.

06z gfs backed off on Tues/Wed qpf, making me wonder how strong a storm is being shown. In a weak event, Monday's forecast for even colder (than tomorrow) temps points toward CAD for my part of the world.

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Was down around -5 this AM and if the cirrus holds off, tonight might bring the season's first double digit negative. That's not particularly noteworthy, as this frost pocket has touched -20 or colder in 10 of 12 winters, not including this one.

06z gfs backed off on Tues/Wed qpf, making me wonder how strong a storm is being shown. In a weak event, Monday's forecast for even colder (than tomorrow) temps points toward CAD for my part of the world.

12z GFS has ramped it back up, It looks more now like the euro with the track and intensity, Mixed bag snow, sleet, rain, We need this storm to dig less over the OH vly to get the front further east...

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Down to 12.0F after a high of 21.1F. Saw some "river effect" flurries in Concord this morning by the Merrimack. I've even seen that effect up here by the Winnipesaukee River on cold, clear mornings.

18z GFS and the 12z EC ensembles are doing their best to try to keep us mostly frozen on Tue/Wed. Late next week is looking cold.

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Down to 12.0F after a high of 21.1F. Saw some "river effect" flurries in Concord this morning by the Merrimack. I've even seen that effect up here by the Winnipesaukee River on cold, clear mornings.

18z GFS and the 12z EC ensembles are doing their best to try to keep us mostly frozen on Tue/Wed. Late next week is looking cold.

I like the trend for Tues, It also looked like the model were trying to bring another coastal or SWFE in here next weekend as well........... :scooter:

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I like the trend for Tues, It also looked like the model were trying to bring another coastal or SWFE in here next weekend as well........... :scooter:

The frozener the better for Tuesday. The models I saw seemed to shift toward less liquid and more frozen so it's been a good day in that regard. You haven't had a subzero night? I've had a few, surprised that you had not. 18.5° now. Crunchy snow.

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Event totals: 12.9” Snow/0.98” L.E.

Friday 1/14/2011 6:00 P.M. update: We picked up another 0.3” of snow from today’s activity, and it wasn’t snowing at observation time, so this could be the break point before the clipper unless any of the possible flurry activity accumulates tonight. BTV says the snow starts up with the clipper tomorrow afternoon around here. Our point forecast suggests up to 2 inches, but the BTV discussion says 2 to 4 inches for the mountains, and 1 to 3 for the valleys:

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND REACHING VERMONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF 250MB JET WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...THIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...1-3 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 2-4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND LOOKING AT THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AND MAINLY BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. EVEN THE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD END SUNDAY NIGHT.

We’ll see where we fall into that scheme, but the activity should run through Sunday.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3%

Temperature: 14.9 F

Sky: Light Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

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The frozener the better for Tuesday. The models I saw seemed to shift toward less liquid and more frozen so it's been a good day in that regard. You haven't had a subzero night? I've had a few, surprised that you had not. 18.5° now. Crunchy snow.

No, We have not had one yet.......

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Only got to -2F here on the hillside. Other lows so far...CON -8F, EEN -11F, BML -14F, IZG -15F.

Had -18 IMBY, which makes some of the above temps surprising. On a clear night with good radiational cooling, I'm usually about the same as IZG and almost never colder than EEN/BML. Wonder if they had a few wispy clouds during the night.

06z gfs would point toward snow-to-IP here, maybe avoid zr altogether. We'll see, as the runs are still hopping around a bit. Pretty consistent for serious cold after the late week event, however. Looks like the AFC champoinship game could be another icebowl, especially if the Pats can beat the Jets, but it should be none too warm in Pittsburgh or Baltimore, either.

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Had -18 IMBY, which makes some of the above temps surprising. On a clear night with good radiational cooling, I'm usually about the same as IZG and almost never colder than EEN/BML. Wonder if they had a few wispy clouds during the night.

A couple of those sites may have gotten a little bit lower after 12z. I think BML/HIE fought clouds through about 9z-11z so they got a late start on the radiational cooling.
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