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NNE Thread: Heading into the Heart of Winter


powderfreak

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We picked up a final tenth of an inch with yesterday’s snow shower activity to bring the total for that event to an even 18.0 inches. Thanks to the big shot of upslope on Sunday it easily became our second largest event of the season.

Next on tap is the current Nor’easter, and we were seeing some of the first flakes this morning when I made my observations. Our current NWS point forecast calls for 7-13 inches through Thursday, with some of that presumably from upslope as we move into the latter part of the event, but we’ll have to see how that goes:

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 434 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE OVER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT FURTHER DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

I added a couple of the BTV NWS page graphics for the event below:

12JAN11A.jpg

12JAN11B.jpg

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I just saw Mad River’s post in the observations thread about our county (Washington) being upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. With the 7-13” point forecast they have for our area near the northern part of the county, I was surprised they hadn’t done it earlier. Any northward increases are good news for the local mountains, which have needed a substantial synoptic dump.

It’s been snowing here in Burlington since probably 8:00 A.M. or so, and it was light for a while but has definitely ramped up now. I just checked outside and I’d say there are a couple of inches of accumulation already – it seems like some substantial, medium-weight, synoptic snow. I should have some observations from back in our county later, and I’ll put them in the observations thread. It will be interesting to see how things are going there – the wife and the boys have school since they are in Lamoille County and accumulations there are expected to be less.

Below, I added the pertinent NWS near term discussion and the updated warnings/advisories map from the BTV page.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1051 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S PACKAGE...MAINLY TO UPGRADE ADVISORIES ACROSS ADDISON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES TO WARNINGS BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR SIGNATURES...AND RECENT REPORTS FROM OUR SPOTTER COMMUNITY OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. LOW PRESSURE NEAR PROVINCETOWN MASSACHUSETTS WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING TO PIVOT SLOWLY WEST FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ONLY MASSAGED SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID EVENING...AND OTHER THAN HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS NOTED ABOVE REST OF FCST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY/THIS EVENING SHOULD PREPARE FOR DIFFICULT TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

12JAN11C.jpg

I like the last comment in the discussion there – I hope to continue doing so!

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Wow is it ripping out there, starting to get hard to measure, found 3" here at the base at 12pm and 4" up around 3,000ft (that's around 1"/hr rate). Hard to measure with the blowing and drifting that is going on (full on white-out conditions), so called it 2-4" on the 12pm snow report. Playing it safe for now but will update again between 4-5pm.

I think we may verify blizzard conditions on the mountain (if we haven't already). Winds are consistently gusting 30-40mph and visibility is about as low as it gets (can only see about halfway across the parking lot. Its been that way for 2-3 hours so far, but we get blizzard conditions up here in most winter storms.

Just got this email... roads are awful and plows can't keep up.

Message: GMTA has temporarily suspended service on the Mountain Road in Stowe. It is white out conditions and the buses can’t get up and down the Mountain Road. Drivers are just hanging tight for now to see if the plows can catch up and we can resume service.

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Wow is it ripping out there, starting to get hard to measure, found 3" here at the base at 12pm and 4" up around 3,000ft (that's around 1"/hr rate). Hard to measure with the blowing and drifting that is going on (full on white-out conditions), so called it 2-4" on the 12pm snow report. Playing it safe for now but will update again between 4-5pm.

I think we may verify blizzard conditions on the mountain (if we haven't already). Winds are consistently gusting 30-40mph and visibility is about as low as it gets (can only see about halfway across the parking lot. Its been that way for 2-3 hours so far, but we get blizzard conditions up here in most winter storms.

Just got this email... roads are awful and plows can't keep up.

Message: GMTA has temporarily suspended service on the Mountain Road in Stowe. It is white out conditions and the buses can’t get up and down the Mountain Road. Drivers are just hanging tight for now to see if the plows can catch up and we can resume service.

Heard the following quip from a friend in BTV

"The roads aren't bad. The hard part is however finding where the road is."

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So now that this event is getting closer and closer to the end, I am curious about model verification. I don't know if there is a seperate thread for this, but it seems to me that the GFS fared worst on this storm and the NAM got on board the quickest with the intense qpf amounts. Thoughts?

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not to bad after all up here, blew out the drive around 5 last night with 5-6", woke up to 3" of NW flow fluff and its still going. beautiful ski this morning out back.

per the usual - it was blowing and snowing pretty had last night over the heights - I imagine the Mts have done well regardless of this being a "southern" event

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I think it is safe to say, the ski areas cashed in..

Cannon Mt: 24 inches

Bretton Woods: 18 inches

Wildcat: 20 inches

Loon: 12 inches

Waterville: 15 inches

Sunapee: 18+ inches

Cranmore 14 inches

Ragged: 18-24 inches

VT

Jay Peak: 15-19 inches

Mt Snow: 20 inches (as of yesterday) and over 3 feet of snow in the town of Wilmington, nearby!!

Stowe: 9-12 inches

Killington: 17 inches

Okemo:14-16 inches

Sugarbush: 11-18 inches

ME

Sugarloaf: 8-10 inches (that little?)

Sunday River: 14 inches

Saddleback 18-20 inches

MA

Jiminy Peak: 22-32 inches

Wachusett: about 2 feet

Berkshire East 12+

Nashoba Valley: 13+ inches

CT

Mohawk Mtn 26 inches

Ski Sundown: 20 inches

ANd we can't forget

RI!

Yawgoo Valley: 14 inches! __________________

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I think it is safe to say, the ski areas cashed in..

VT

Jay Peak: 15-19 inches

Mt Snow: 20 inches (as of yesterday) and over 3 feet of snow in the town of Wilmington, nearby!!

Stowe: 9-12 inches

Killington: 17 inches

Okemo:14-16 inches

Sugarbush: 11-18 inches

I called it 9-12" this morning to be on the safe side (that's likely conservative), but ski patrol is just getting on the hill and will check the snow stakes for me as I'm dealing with wind hold issues. Wind has blown it all over the place so in all honesty its like 0-36".

We are like a mile away from Smugglers Notch and they are reporting 18-20"... they might have gotten that over there on the other side of the Notch, but there's no way there's 20" over here. Now that its light out and I can see and walk around to more sheltered spots, I have a feeling our actual amounts are in the 12-14" range. And that would fit with around a foot falling down in the village. However, I really hate over-estimating snowfall (I'm not sure why but that's a pet peeve of mine) and I've noticed around here folks seem to think we got more snow than we actually did. We played a game of guess the amount of snow that fell yesterday afternoon, and then measured the area, and everyone (5 people with me) over-estimated what the ruler actually said. Sure, the woods are likely buried with 20" of new snow but on the trails its probably like 6" from wind transport.

I really like Bolton Valley's reports and they are usually very accurate... they are reporting 11-14" of new snow in the past 24 hours and fits with what I think we have here. I'm still perplexed at the 20" at Smuggs and 19" at Jay as I would've though Okemo/Killington and points south would've gotten more than them, but then again, when its upslope fluffy snow, they very well could've gotten another 6-9" over us at Stowe and Bolton.

All in all this was a lot more snow up here in the north country than any model or forecasts had... really didn't expect a foot of snow in the village.

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24 hour co-op data shows...

 JAY PEAK            0.42    19  11  11   LIGHT SNOW   8.0  23

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
JEFFERSONVILLE      1.20            15   LIGHT SNOW  11.0  26

I believe the Jeffersonville reading comes from near the base of Smuggs where they are reporting 22" now. Jay Peak is reporting 19". The precipitation amount of 1.2" at Jeffersonville is impressive for this event though and would support the higher total at the ski area... no model showed an inch and a quarter this far north.

We checked our snow stakes and found 10-12" new snow on the ground (or increase in snow depth at those stakes so there could be some settling that isn't accounted for)... but either way we definitely didn't get the snow that the two mountains north of us got.

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Good news indeed. I was thinking of him when I saw the temp in Rockland jump up to 33 this afternoon.

:frostymelt:

Great! Great! Great!!!!

Not to worry. Ellsworth reported 14" as of this morning. I don't think the rain got past the smell of salt water.

Sugarloaf: 8-10 inches (that little?)

The good bands never made it into Franklin and Somerset Counties, and the storm was a sideswipe to near whiff farther north in Maine. CAR got 1.6".

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24 hour co-op data shows...

 JAY PEAK            0.42    19  11  11   LIGHT SNOW   8.0  23

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
JEFFERSONVILLE      1.20            15   LIGHT SNOW  11.0  26

I believe the Jeffersonville reading comes from near the base of Smuggs where they are reporting 22" now. Jay Peak is reporting 19". The precipitation amount of 1.2" at Jeffersonville is impressive for this event though and would support the higher total at the ski area... no model showed an inch and a quarter this far north.

We checked our snow stakes and found 10-12" new snow on the ground (or increase in snow depth at those stakes so there could be some settling that isn't accounted for)... but either way we definitely didn't get the snow that the two mountains north of us got.

Well, looks like Smuggs ski area did get blasted with 20"+.... FAA employee's reporting 20" in Jeffersonville. Hard to believe that a couple miles away on the otherside of the mountain they almost doubled us.

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
  2 SSW JEFFERSONVILLE  20.0   800 AM  1/13  FAA EMPLOYEE            
  JEFFERSONVILLE        16.0   628 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  CAMBRIDGE             14.0  1200 AM  1/13  SPOTTER                 
  MORRISVILLE           12.5   730 PM  1/12  PUBLIC                  
  1 NW SOUTH CAMBRIDGE  12.0   901 PM  1/12  SPOTTER                 
  5 N JEFFERSONVILLE    11.0   850 AM  1/13  CO-OP OBSERVER          
  3 NE HYDE PARK        11.0   630 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  SW STOWE               9.0   730 AM  1/13  COCORAHS                
  2 S STOWE              8.4   945 PM  1/12  SPOTTER   

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