NNE Thread: Heading into the Heart of Winter

[alex]

I don't want to take up valuable board real estate but I wanted to let you know your updates are awesome. I love Stowe, and I love reading about it in your reports. THANK YOU!

Event totals: 17.3” Snow/0.61” L.E.

We picked up 0.6 inches of snow in the 12:00 A.M. to 6:00 A.M. timeframe, since around here the snow quickly wound down after midnight. It was a nice event though, bringing the season snowfall total at this location to 72.3 inches, which is just ahead of the average of 72.0 inches I have calculated for the date. Since so much of it has been fluff though, we are presumably behind on liquid as the mountain snowpack would suggest. There were a couple of nice examples of the fluff factor in the snow this morning. The first was that even with another 0.6 inches of snowfall, the snow depth at the stake is already a half inch lower than it was at midnight. The other was that when I was running the snow thrower this morning, wherever the snow landed it would cause a good chunk of this recent accumulation to simply implode. The effect was that in many spots where I threw snow, the snowpack is not nearly as deep as the surrounding area. I’ve seen this effect before, but this morning was one of the most dramatic examples. Details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7%

Temperature: 16.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

[borderwx]

great description Jspin of the snow, we had the usual 4' drift in front of the garage door from the spindrift off the roof, it is usually a good workout to start the day with, however, you could spit through it to the ground the snow was so fluffy. still going strong it looks like N of rt 15 - no sign of the range to be seen yet. at the house it was here and there snow, 2 inches here, 10 inches there, winds were rattling the windows last night

[mreaves]

great description Jspin of the snow, we had the usual 4' drift in front of the garage door from the spindrift off the roof, it is usually a good workout to start the day with, however, you could spit through it to the ground the snow was so fluffy. still going strong it looks like N of rt 15 - no sign of the range to be seen yet. at the house it was here and there snow, 2 inches here, 10 inches there, winds were rattling the windows last night

I was up your way Saturday afternoon. As of that point, there ahd been no new snow past Lyndonville on 91. I was sort of surprised at how little there was on the ground. You must have more on the other side of the lake.

[borderwx]

I was up your way Saturday afternoon. As of that point, there ahd been no new snow past Lyndonville on 91. I was sort of surprised at how little there was on the ground. You must have more on the other side of the lake.

what you saw pretty much sums up the winter thus far, our snow stake hasn't been over 6"yet for the winter (now at 4"), Sat was sunny/partly sunny all day, elevation has been the key, the big range has snowfenced us with these systems, and anything coming in on a S wind has been wet, really feel bad for the VAST enthuisiasts, after last year and the start of this year I would start thinking about other activities - rabbit hunting was fun on Sat - maybe trade sleds for guns

[skierinvermont]

well I picked the wrong week to go skiing. Will have to try and get back up there. Simply incredible orographics. I kept waiting for something like this to kick in, I thought maybe the norlun would get things cranking, but Sugarbush reporting 15" up top since I left yesterday.

[dendrite]

Looks like a graze job for NNE on Wednesday. It's probably borderline advisory/warning for the extreme southern GYX zones at this point with advisories at best elsewhere. Boxing Day threw some of us a bone, but unfortunately it took a beating with the warmth a few days later. It feels like SNE is playing the role of the Mid Atlantic and NNE is playing the role of SNE from last winter. Hopefully that portends good things for us next year.

[MaineJayhawk]

Looks like a graze job for NNE on Wednesday. It's probably borderline advisory/warning for the extreme southern GYX zones at this point with advisories at best elsewhere. Boxing Day threw some of us a bone, but unfortunately it took a beating with the warmth a few days later. It feels like SNE is playing the role of the Mid Atlantic and NNE is playing the role of SNE from last winter. Hopefully that portends good things for us next year.

Exactly what I'm thinking on both accounts. Figuring on 4-6" imby, maybe Kittery and the NH coast gets around 8" or so. Disappointing storm if this is how it pans out, imo.

[bobbutts]

I think 4-8" imby but still holding out some hope that we have late a NW trend, afraid a late SE trend is just as likely..

[PWMan]

Exactly what I'm thinking on both accounts. Figuring on 4-6" imby, maybe Kittery and the NH coast gets around 8" or so. Disappointing storm if this is how it pans out, imo.

It really seems that, regardless of the setup these days, we're locked into either whiffs or fringe-jobs. With mostly bare ground I can't complain too much about the prospect of a moderate event, but we're way overdue for a good clobbering. I'm on the same wavelength as you on totals for this one. This has the feel of one of those storms where a couple spots in south coastal York County break into double digits while most of the rest of us get the requisite 4-6" and we listen to reports of thundersnow and 18" totals from our SNE brethren.

[W1WFG]

It really seems that, regardless of the setup these days, we're locked into either whiffs or fringe-jobs.

I told my students on the 16th or 17th of Dec. that they'd go all the way to MLK day, and maybe to the end of the semester (24 Jan) without a snow day. (Boxing Day fell at just the right time.) All those elongated, skinny-banded qpf footballs with the NE/SW axis parallel to the Maine coast, are getting pretty damned monotonous.

Some winters it's all NORLUN all the time -- same shaped footballs, but the axis is at 90º to what I'm looking at for the Wed. storm, and the fat blue part is right over my head. But not this year...

[MainePhotog]

GYX flying Winter Storm Watches for coastal counties from York County through the midcoast per afternoon AFD.

[Allenson]

GYX flying Winter Storm Watches for coastal counties from York County through the midcoast per afternoon AFD.

I see that--even as far west and close to here as southern Grafton Co., NH. BTV has them hoisted for eastern Rutland and Windsor Counties, just to my south. Nothing for here in Orange Co., but perhaps advisories will come up in later shifts...

More would be nice but I'd be happy with another 3-4-5" or so.... I'll take what I can get.

If the fetch is easterly/southeasterly, we usually do pretty well, so we'll see. BTV has this to say:

THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS (WESTON/ANDOVER/LUDLOW)

WHERE FAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LYR WIND SHOULD

AID IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL.

We're not the southern Greens here by a long shot but again, the "easterly component" mentioned usually is favorable for this area of easterly facing Orange Co.

While it's been pretty paltry snowfall-wise around here since February of last year, we're not in nearly the snow-drought as are parts of NH & ME. Hope you dudes to the east get a good one. You're way overdue.

[simpsonsbuff]

I see that--even as far west and close to here as southern Grafton Co., NH. BTV has them hoisted for eastern Rutland and Windsor Counties, just to my south. Nothing for here in Orange Co., but perhaps advisories will come up in later shifts...

More would be nice but I'd be happy with another 3-4-5" or so.... I'll take what I can get.

If the fetch is easterly/southeasterly, we usually do pretty well, so we'll see.

While it's been pretty paltry snowfall-wise around here since February of last year, we're not in nearly the snow-drought as parts of NH & ME. Hope you dudes to the east get a good one. You're way overdue.

if the NAM soundings are right, oh boy. Of course, I don't think they are... We'll see... time still to sort this out.

[Allenson]

if the NAM soundings are right, oh boy. Of course, I don't think they are... We'll see... time still to sort this out.

Beware the Hanover downslope.

[simpsonsbuff]

Beware the Hanover downslope.

Know it quite well. I now take my call and take 2/3's of it.

[dryslot]

The NW trends have commenced today on the models as we get closer in......

[Allenson]

Know it quite well. I now take my call and take 2/3's of it.

Sounds reasonable. The easterlies do dry out some coming off the highlands of western NH and there's a little subsequent enhancement as it comes back up the higher terrain on the west side of the river.

The NW trends have commenced today on the models as we get closer in......

Yeah, I'm picking up on that in the big thread. When p-type issues start to be discussed down yonder, that's often a good sign for us in the northern three states.

[tamarack]

The NW trends have commenced today on the models as we get closer in......

I'm keeping my powder dry but not putting any on the pan. So far this season I've had one modest overperformer (4.8" on 22-23 with forecast 2-4) while everything else underperformed. If this one moves in for a good hit here, then I'll touch off the blunderbuss.

Great pics from Alabama on the photoforum, but it's odd to see them with more snow than here, in mid January. Missing snowstorms might run in the family (recently, anyway.) My daughter, who loves snow, never saw a 4" storm in her 2000-08 years living in GSP. Now that she's in DEC, her old place gets 8"+.

[powderfreak]

Wow... what a phenomenal upslope event in the higher elevations, and a pretty solid event in the lower elevations. I drove up from Albany, NY to Stowe early this morning after flying in from Utah late last night. Mix of sun and clouds on 80% of the drive and then as I past Hinesburg and hit Ricmond it started snowing. It was obvious it had been snowing for a while. There was a line of a mile or two where snow increased rapidly in both intensity and accumulations...a nice orographically driven gradient. As I drove past J.Spin's area in the Winooski Valley, as usual it looked absolutely buried...and stayed that way all the way to the Waterbury/Exit 10 area. Snow seemed to taper off in Waterbury Center and then picked up again in Stowe, especially as one got closer to Mansfield.

Eyeballing there was definitely a fresh 6-8" on cars... while Stowe Village usually doesn't jackpot in upslope events (usually that's on the western side), it definitely does pretty well in most events. However, Mt Mansfield is another story and the amounts there can be pretty big. I didn't get out on the hill till 11:30am but met up with some friends who said its waist deep on the upper mountain. I didn't believe them. Turns out they were right. 6-8" was reported, however, it was triple that or more in some areas... not a bad overnight accumulation.

Orographic lift FTW

[Lava Rock]

that's just insane. stars were out last nite and sunny day today. meanwhile you guys get crushed with a passing snow cloud. so envious

[J.Spin]

Great pics Scott - we were on the mountain yesterday afternoon for school program and it was already awesome. The kids had a blast! If we could get a synotic snow of that size the mountain would be in mid season form. With that said, I just saw that the stake hit the magic 40" mark, so that's good news.

[W1WFG]

Language query from a Greek and Latin teacher -- why is it 'orographic' and not 'orogenic'? Nothing's being written on the mountains, by the mountains, etc. On the other hand, the mountains are the place where the snow comes into being, which makes 'genic' the logical choice -- but it wasn't chosen. Anybody remember why? The geologists got to orogeny first?

[Mica Vim Toot]

Language query from a Greek and Latin teacher -- why is it 'orographic' and not 'orogenic'? Nothing's being written on the mountains, by the mountains, etc. On the other hand, the mountains are the place where the snow comes into being, which makes 'genic' the logical choice -- but it wasn't chosen. Anybody remember why? The geologists got to orogeny first?

Ha!

Correct too. Orogenic it is!

This made my night. Yes, I'm easily amused.

Vim Toot!

[powderfreak]

3.2" of pure fluff on my car this morning in Stowe Village on the Mtn Road... stars are out and yet its still snowing pretty steadily. Was not expecting that overnight...

[j24vt]

I'm about 2 miles NE of Stowe village and only picked up 0.5"!

[Allenson]

Can I get at least a short term forecast? I mean, it is snowing here too this morning.

Survey says no! Poor Orange County. The ginger step-child.

[powderfreak]

3.2" of pure fluff on my car this morning in Stowe Village on the Mtn Road... stars are out and yet its still snowing pretty steadily. Was not expecting that overnight...

Very interesting gradient this morning... no more than a dusting to an inch overnight at the mountain... 1-3" last 24 hours including yesterday's light snowfall.

What was over 3" of snow in the Village on the Mtn Road near the Luce Hill intersection, turned to 1" by Topnotch a mile or two away, and then a half inch in the ski area parking lot a couple miles further. No idea how the village did so well last night and nothing happened on the mountain.

25" on the upper mountain in the past week, and that number is low in some areas but can't pick and choose where you measure.

[hvysnow79]

Can I get at least a short term forecast? I mean, it is snowing here too this morning.

Survey says no! Poor Orange County. The ginger step-child.

I figured the clouds had rolled in since temp had actually rose up to 18F, but I wasn't expecting the snow to be falling. Let's hope for the advisories/warnings to move west to cover you as well

[powderfreak]

I'm about 2 miles NE of Stowe village and only picked up 0.5"!

Yeah, sharp gradient... thats what we have in the ski area parking lot (half inch). However, I'm located on the Mtn Road near Luce Hill (Piecasso, Shed, Gale Farm Center area) and there was over 3" from last night! It decreased quickly after Edson Hill Road heading to the mountain. I'm not sure what the gradient is heading the other direction down towards the blinking red light. If you happen to drive towards the mountain, take notice of the gradient.

It was beautiful snow, too... clinging to every branch and twig, would've loved to take some pics but had to get to the mtn.

Its funny cause everyone coming to the mountain is reporting different things... some people are saying 2-4", others are saying nothing, some a dusting to inch. One person said the plow went by their house and they couldn't figure out why they were plowing, but then a mile down the road there's over 3" on the road. I would've loved to see a radar image from last night.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 17.9” Snow/0.61” L.E.

Tuesday 1/11/2011 6:00 A.M. update: I got home yesterday evening to find another tenth of an inch of snow on the board from the day’s activity, and figured that would mark the end of our event. Well, I guess that wasn’t quite the end because there was another half inch of snow out there this morning, and the NWS discussed its origin in their near term discussion from this morning:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 622 AM EST TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE HAVE COMBINED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. ALBEIT LIGHT...THE SNOW WILL PERSIST AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NORTHEAST VERMONT TODAY AS WELL. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM SEASONAL NORMALS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

I hadn’t really planned on having to do anything other than check the stake this morning, so I was rushing around a bit but got everything done. I couldn’t get measurable water out of either yesterday’s or today’s accumulations, so that made it a bit easier and they both went down as traces of liquid. The snowpack continues to settle from the recent fluff – 13.0 inches last night at 8:00 P.M., and 12.5 inches as of this morning. With no obvious new event taking place I’ve rolled these accumulations into the back end of the weekend system, and it appears as though there may be one more addition to the total today – when I left the house it was still snowing. It was actually pretty steady snowfall. Although still in the light category, there were flakes up to ¾” in diameter so there might be additional fluff to add this evening.

After that, it should be at the break point for getting accumulations on the mid week Nor’easter. The BTV NWS storm total map has us down for what looks like 3-4 inches, and Roger Hill indicated about 2-5 inches for the Barre/Montpelier area in his morning broadcast. There is some Northwest upslope flow coming in after that, so we’ll have to see what else falls. Then Roger talked about the system this weekend, and then another potential one the middle of next week, so it sounds like there will be a lot to watch.

For now, we are actually keeping pace with average snowfall at this point at our location, which means about an inch a day according to my records for this part of the season. I’m not sure if we’ve really had a hit from a big synoptic all-snow storm yet this season as far as I can recall, but thanks to upslope flow, December came in about average for snowfall, and January is doing OK as well so far. Were it not for the poor November we would actually be riding ahead of average.