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NNE Thread: Heading into the Heart of Winter


powderfreak

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Event totals: 5.1” Snow/0.29” L.E.

Sunday 1/9/2011 6:00 A.M. update: I cleared the snowboard last night at 10:00 P.M., and it had 0.2” snow on it comprised of 0.01” liquid. That was presumably the last accumulation from that part of the storm. I don’t know when the next round of snowfall started, but when I checked this morning a fresh 1.9” of very dry, upslope-style snow had accumulated. We are definitely into a different portion of the storm now, because the flakes are consistently larger than anything I’ve seen the past couple of days, and the snowfall rate is high. I don’t think it’s quite 1”/hr., but it’s up there due to the large flakes. Very consistent with BTV’s projected accumulations map, a sharp cutoff of precipitation is visible on the radar along the Green Mountain spine, even in composite mode.

09JAN11A.gif

Checking the latest NWS discussion for the near term, the snowfall activity is expected to be higher when a potent shortwave comes through this afternoon, so we will see how the snowfall plays out later:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z MONDAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE EVIDENT. FIRST PART OF THE DAY TODAY WILL BE QUIETER UNTIL THAT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE REGION.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 47.5

Snow Density: 2.1%

Temperature: 23.9 F

Sky: Snow (3-7 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

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Yeah, call it 4" for the event. It was a pretty good fetch for us yesterday, here at the head of an east-facing valley.

Snow showers still in the air this morning....

BTV starting to honk a little bit about Tuesday night/Wednesday, particulary for here in eastern VT. Took a look at Gray too and predictably, they're more conservative but mention the potential coastal low nonetheless.... :snowman:

8" at the stake.

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Wow! Measurable snow - all of 0.2" fell 9-11 last evening. It started as some of the teeniest snow grains I've seen, but finished with some small dendrites. Must be a fine winter to get this many posts about a snowfall of 1" or less.

I guess it was the surprise aspect of it that was intriguing. Of course, this winter is still lame and anemic.

0.2" for me and I saw none of it fall.

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Event totals: 5.1” Snow/0.29” L.E.

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 47.5

Snow Density: 2.1%

Temperature: 23.9 F

Sky: Snow (3-7 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

Nice, J... up to 9.5" at the stake is pretty decent right now all things considered! I'm still amazed at how much snow your area gets for being only 400-500ft in elevation.

I'm at the SLC airport getting ready to fly back and am looking forward to returning to more snow! Talking with folks at Stowe it seems as though we've been in a classic snow-showery pattern with 15" at the summit over the past week, coming in 2-4" bursts. Looks like we'll add to it, too!

Winter Weather Advisory just issued by BTV for the Green Mountain spine and adjacent areas... classic upslope flow FTW

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...

TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...BURLINGTON...

JOHNSON...STOWE...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...

BRISTOL...RIPTON

1111 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN

ADIRONDACKS...THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN

MOUNTAINS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF

VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN

ADIRONDACKS. 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE

NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN

VALLEY OF VERMONT...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS EAST OF ROUTES 2A AND 7.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BECOMING STEADIER THIS EVENING INTO

MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LOCALLY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS

EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER

TERRAIN AREAS.

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOWS 8 TO 16 ABOVE.

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Nice, J... up to 9.5" at the stake is pretty decent right now all things considered! I'm still amazed at how much snow your area gets for being only 400-500ft in elevation.

Some of it is our upslope fluff of course, so it’s not like an equivalent snowpack made entirely of dense stuff, but it’s hard to complain about the number at the stake with the way the season has gone (it’s actually up to 13" as of the 6:00 P.M. observations - more on that below). We definitely do well with snowfall for such low elevation, and after observing what goes on here for a few seasons I can think of a couple key reasons. One is that we are so sheltered and out of the wind, the dumps, especially the upslope ones come with ridiculous loft. Today was a perfect example. When we left Stowe it was like a blizzard with heavy snow and 20-30 MPH winds. We got back here to the house it was dead calm and dumping some massive 1"+ flakes. I walked through the snow out back while making my measurements and it was like air - I haven't run the numbers yet, but even though there was a half foot of it, I bet it was still just a few percent H2O. Even laying one of my ground snowboards down as gently as I could, it just crushed the stuff. The other thing that helps with the snowfall here is that we’re in sort of a sweet spot that can get in on the best of the “west of the Greens” and the “east of the Greens” microclimates. Sometimes we still get in on the warming with the “west of the Greens” microclimate, but that’s the way it goes.

I'm at the SLC airport getting ready to fly back and am looking forward to returning to more snow! Talking with folks at Stowe it seems as though we've been in a classic snow-showery pattern with 15" at the summit over the past week, coming in 2-4" bursts. Looks like we'll add to it, too!

Winter Weather Advisory just issued by BTV for the Green Mountain spine and adjacent areas... classic upslope flow FTW

I think you’re going to be happy with what’s been going on around here this afternoon. It was getting windy at Stowe so it was a little hard to tell, but it must have been dumping at over an inch an hour because in the noon to 6:00 P.M. period we picked up 6.1 inches even down here at the house – and it’s still dumping at an inch an hour. I’m not sure how long it’s going to keep up at this rate, but the advisory goes through 10:00 A.M. tomorrow. In any event, it’s going to help us in terms of getting closer to average for snowfall, even if it’s fluff and doesn’t quite get us there in terms of total liquid in the snowpack. I’ll put together my updates and a couple of pictures in a bit.

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Event totals: 12.3” Snow/0.47” L.E.

Sunday 1/9/2011 6:00 P.M. update: As of noontime today we had accumulated 1.1 inches of new snow, and then I was able to clear the snowboard before we headed to Stowe for the afternoon. There was steady snow on the mountain all afternoon and into the evening, and it seemed to increase as time went on. I bet it was above an inch per hour at times, although it was a bit tough to tell with the wind; winds were certainly in the 20 to 30 MPH range when they were ramped up. I didn’t know if the same heavy snowfall was hitting the valleys, but I was very curious to see what was going on at the house. On the way home, the intensity of the snowfall dropped off a bit as we headed down into Stowe Village, but for the most part it really kept up with decent snowfall all along the east side of the Greens through Waterbury Center, Colbyville, and then through Waterbury to the house.

09JAN11A.jpg

It was obvious that we’d picked up a good shot of afternoon snow at the house as we plowed our way up the driveway, and I found 6.1 inches of snow on the snowboard comprised of 0.14 inches of liquid. It was very fluffy stuff that you could barely feel as you walked through it. The 6.1 inches was actually the largest individual accumulation I’ve seen on the board so far this season, whether accumulated in 6-hour, 12-hour, or even 24-hour intervals. The flakes (or aggregates in actuality) that were falling from the sky were huge, with some up to an inch in diameter. I went with a range of 5 to 25 mm diameters based on what I saw.

09JAN11B.jpg

With that accumulation this event pulled into a tie with the 12/12/2010-12/18/2010 event for second largest of the season, but it’s continued to snow at about an inch per hour, so this one has now taken sole possession of the number two spot. The running season snowfall average I have for this date is 70.9 inches, and 72.0 inches for tomorrow, so if this snowfall keeps up it might be possible to catch up to average. If that happened, it would be the first time this season. Either way, we’re at least getting closer.

Some details from the noontime and 6:00 P.M. observations are below:

1/9/2011 - 12:00 P.M. observations

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 27.5

Snow Density: 3.6%

Temperature: 25.3 F

Sky: Snow (2-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

1/9/2011 - 6:00 P.M. observations

New Snow: 6.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.14 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 43.6

Snow Density: 2.3%

Temperature: 21.6 F

Sky: Snow (5-25 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches

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Event totals: 16.7” Snow/0.60” L.E.

Monday 1/10/2011 12:00 A.M. update: I’m up doing some work so I went out for 12:00 A.M. observations. It has still been coming down quite steadily over the past six hours (4.4 inches), although not quite as intensely as the previous accumulation period. With the way the snowfall has been so heavy, I was surprised that the NWS didn’t go with a Winter Storm Warning for this event, but I checked their page and they now have Winter Storm Warnings up for eastern Chittenden and Addison Counties and they have also updated their storm total snowfall maps.

DISCUSSION FROM 929 PM EST SUNDAY... COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. JUST GOT A REPORT IN UNDERHILL VERMONT FROM AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OF 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED SEVERAL OTHER REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AS WELL. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS EASTERN CHITTENDEN AND EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES IN VERMONT. ALSO JUST RECEIVED A REPORT FROM A RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE OF 4 INCHES AT KILLINGTON VERMONT...WITH HEAVY SNOW THERE. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EASTERN RUTLAND AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VERMONT...SO THERE MAY BE ANOTHER UPDATE COMING TO THIS FORECAST IN AWHILE

As noted above, if it’s snowing more than twice as hard in Underhill as it is here, they are getting quite a shot of snow. It will be interesting to see how accumulations go with this event; folks taking just 24-hour measurements are going to have notably lower totals than those reading at smaller intervals because this snow is so dry. It settles really fast; evidenced by the fact that there were 13.0 inches at the stake at 6:00 P.M., we picked up 4.4 additional inches, and the snow at the stake is only 14.5 inches now. The 12:00 A.M. observations are below followed by the WSW text and the updated maps

New Snow: 4.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.13 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 33.8

Snow Density: 3.0%

Temperature: 18.1 F

Sky: Snow (3-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.5 inches

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

1100 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

VTZ017-018-101200-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110110T1500Z/

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON

1100 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER STORM WARNING...UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN CHITTENDEN AND EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES IN VERMONT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

10JAN11A.jpg

10JAN11B.jpg

10JAN11C.jpg

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Event totals: 17.3” Snow/0.61” L.E.

We picked up 0.6 inches of snow in the 12:00 A.M. to 6:00 A.M. timeframe, since around here the snow quickly wound down after midnight. It was a nice event though, bringing the season snowfall total at this location to 72.3 inches, which is just ahead of the average of 72.0 inches I have calculated for the date. Since so much of it has been fluff though, we are presumably behind on liquid as the mountain snowpack would suggest. There were a couple of nice examples of the fluff factor in the snow this morning. The first was that even with another 0.6 inches of snowfall, the snow depth at the stake is already a half inch lower than it was at midnight. The other was that when I was running the snow thrower this morning, wherever the snow landed it would cause a good chunk of this recent accumulation to simply implode. The effect was that in many spots where I threw snow, the snowpack is not nearly as deep as the surrounding area. I’ve seen this effect before, but this morning was one of the most dramatic examples. Details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7%

Temperature: 16.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

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