adk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't buy that jay number for 1 second. Not one effin second. Sorry but I watched this event all day yesterday and had numerous spotters report back conditions up and down the spine. (I was VERY VERY bored at work and sent out a lot of emails to friends). None reported anything that would indicate jay was gettign 1.5 feet of snow. F that. They were doing so well too. All the other numbers make sense and are 100% believable based on observed conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We ended up with a little over 4 inches over the past couple of days. Nice and fluffy but I did break out the shovel to clear the drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't buy that jay number for 1 second. Not one effin second. Sorry but I watched this event all day yesterday and had numerous spotters report back conditions up and down the spine. (I was VERY VERY bored at work and sent out a lot of emails to friends). None reported anything that would indicate jay was gettign 1.5 feet of snow. F that. LOL--a local met once rolled his eyes when I asked him about the totals that come out of Jay. They do get a lot of snow there though, no question about that one. I suspect some other reports as inflated as well..... Anyway, picked up 1.5" of pure broom-snow here yesterday just to freshen the glacier a little. Cold morning too--I was quite surprised when I bumbled into the kitchen this morning and looked at the thermometer to see it all the way down to 3F. It was one of those sneaky-cold mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Jay Peak coop, which I believe is at the base of the mountain, came in at only 5"....0.22" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Jay Peak coop, which I believe is at the base of the mountain, came in at only 5"....0.22" of liquid. Checking the Jay Peak coop has seemed to be the best way to get an independent look at the Jay Peak numbers. One never knows for sure if something different went on near the summit since the coop is at the base, but when the coop and ski area numbers are the same, that is a nice confirmation. Checking out the recent reports from the coop I found: 1/3/2011: New: 0”, Total Depth: 8” 1/4/2011: New: N/A, Total Depth: N/A 1/5/2011: New: 2”, Total Depth: 10” 1/5/2011: New: 5”, Total Depth: 14” That would suggest 7” of new snow and a 6” increase in snowpack depth, which seems like a reasonable combination if they’re just doing 24-hour measurements. I wonder if borderwx from up in Newport Center has any first hand observations from the recent snowfall at the mountain or surrounding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Checking the Jay Peak coop has seemed to be the best way to get an independent look at the Jay Peak numbers. One never knows for sure if something different went on near the summit since the coop is at the base, but when the coop and ski area numbers are the same, that is a nice confirmation. Checking out the recent reports from the coop I found: 1/3/2011: New: 0”, Total Depth: 8” 1/4/2011: New: N/A, Total Depth: N/A 1/5/2011: New: 2”, Total Depth: 10” 1/5/2011: New: 5”, Total Depth: 14” That would suggest 7” of new snow and a 6” increase in snowpack depth, which seems like a reasonable combination if they’re just doing 24-hour measurements. I wonder if borderwx from up in Newport Center has any first hand observations from the recent snowfall at the mountain or surrounding area. I would say those numbers are operator error. Spent a few hours out yesterday near Jay, only up to 3K though, it was typical orographic snows, heavy squalls on/off all day with gusty winds, not enough to stop you in your tracks, but had to ski with the hood on all day, NE facing ravines held 6-20" with drifting( and open water in the bottoms). I don't know how they measure anything anyway, I always thought they should have a range scale to account for the wind effect up there, seems like they probably look out the window and estimate hourly snow rates and pretend there is no wind. 10 miles east at our house another 1-2" of stackable flakes this morning with pixie dust in the air, beautiful sunrise today, the range was still covered in clouds/flurries, driving over sheffield heights last night was a two handed affair - heavy snow at 7:30 and at 10 - defintely looked like winter again above 1500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Where did the 19" come from? Snow report at http://jaypeakresort.com/ says 8-10" last 24hr as of 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Where did the 19" come from? Snow report at http://jaypeakresort.com/ says 8-10" last 24hr as of 7am Bob- their website said 19 inches in 48 hours this morning. It's since been reduced to 13 inches in the past 24 hours (which as we can see by the Jay Coop is still a little off). Anyway...you can read about it here and here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Where did the 19" come from? Snow report at http://jaypeakresort.com/ says 8-10" last 24hr as of 7am Bob- their website said 19 inches in 48 hours this morning. It's since been reduced to 13 inches in the past 24 hours (which as we can see by the Jay Coop is still a little off). Anyway...you can read about it here and here. Following up with what adk has above, it looks like it was either a preliminary report or an error as borderwx suggested; nice to see that they corrected it. On the latest version of the page, the 19” for 48-hour (what I was considering the storm total) and 7-day totals has been replaced with 13”: It’s still not exactly in line with the coop data, but with a couple thousand feet of elevation thrown in, 13” seems a bit more in line than 19”. Snowfall update from today: Here in Burlington it actually snowed steadily for a while in the morning, but there was no accumulation in this area. The snow that is on the ground here actually looks like it saw some melting today, or perhaps it was just the fluff settling and revealing some spots of grass. In the mountains the snowfall was more consistent and now that the sun is coming out there is a distinct line visible around the 2,000’ elevation mark with everything above quite white (image below). I’d guess that there was a little more accumulation in the higher elevations today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ouch, base depth and trails open not looking so good for Jay ATM. Glad I got out (Cannon) a few days before this thaw disaster. Going to need more than some dry fluff to fix this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Good disco from Ekster/GYX My point forecast now has me for 2-5" thru fri night. Was < 1/2" before. .Long term /friday night through thursday/... -- Changed discussion -- Tricky snowfall forecast remains for the friday night through Sunday time frame as an upper level low moves from the great lakes Eastward to off the southern new england coast on sunday. Forcing For precipitation with this system will be more mesoscale in Nature than anything else...So it still remains tough to pin down How much snow will fall and exactly where. The models are in general agreement with the large scale Features...But pinning down mesoscale sources of ascent is tough. As of this time...It looks like there could be two main bouts of Mainly light snow. The first of which probably comes arching in From the south...Probably in the form of a long but narrow band Of light to occasional moderate snow. This occurs as a sliver of Mid level frontogenesis and associated -epv moves northward from Southern new england. The northward extent of this band is uncertain as the forcing Weakens with time. For now...It looks as though a few inches of High-ratio snow could fall from this feature...With the highest Probs across southern nh and southern me. In addition...There may Also be some ocean enhanced snowfall to boot...Even outside of Whatever e-w band moves northward from the south. As such...Felt That highest pops fri night through sat am should be across the Southern half or third of the cwa. However...By saturday afternoon Went with likely pops for all zones as we didn/t want to get too Cute for now. If anything we/ll probably end up with a high- Pop/low qpf type deal out of this. A potential second bout of steadier snow could occur saturday Night and sunday morning depending on the track of the mid and Upper level low. If the low comes across southern new england then Northeastward into the gulf of maine like the gfs and nam Depict...Then some enhanced snow banding could occur across nh and Maine /especially maine/ which could deliver a few more inches of High-ratio fluff. However...The track of the upper low is still in Question...As the 12z ecmwf does not take the gulf of maine track. This would result in less snowfall for the cwa. Overall...Based on ratios and best guess at how forcing will Evolve...Went with a general 2 to 5 inches of snow for much of nh And me over the 36+ hour stretch starting friday night. If heavier Banding were to concentrate itself and/or pivot for awhile over a Certain areas...Then localized amounts of 5 to 8 inches can/t be Ruled out. On the flip side...Some areas may only receive only a Dusting to 2 inches. The whole system moves out sunday afternoon...And much of the area Will be left with fair wx in the wake of the system through early Next week. Models keep advertising a southern stream system Spinning up a gulf of mexico low that heads out to sea well south Of new england midweek. While it looks like a miss for now...We Will have to watch trends. -- End changed discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Jay Peak coop, which I believe is at the base of the mountain, came in at only 5"....0.22" of liquid. At Ellen (Sugarbush) today there was accumulating snow at the summit all morning, but it was sunny in the valley. Sugarbush reported 3" overnight at the summit (in reality I think it was only 2" but there was definitely well over 1".. either 2 or 3") and nothing at the base. The last 24 hours of snowfall has been very elevation dependent. I don't buy the 19" report at Jay at all given the 7" reported at the coop. But the updated 13" sounds reasonable given 7" at the coop. (48 hour totals) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Bob- their website said 19 inches in 48 hours this morning. It's since been reduced to 13 inches in the past 24 hours (which as we can see by the Jay Coop is still a little off). Anyway...you can read about it here and here. I am not defending them in anyway but as it is my job at Stowe to measure snow... it can be quite difficult at times on the mountain to really get a good handle on snowfall. Even with snow plots set up, it is still very difficult to get an accurate reading sometimes. With that said, I will ALWAYS err on the side of caution if I am not sure. I've found that skiers and riders love it when the snow is "under-reported" rather than the other way around. The 6am snow report is always the hardest because at that time we've yet to really "be up on the hill." At that time I've personally only checked snowfall at around 1,550ft... on my way to mtn ops each morning I stop at Barnes Camp which is the old run-down building near the parking area at the RT 108 closure. I always stop there before taking a left into the resort because over by Mtn Ops we are always wind scoured in the base between the Gondi and Quad. Over at the parking area at Barnes Camp (where folks park if they are heading up into the notch from the Stowe side) its usually a lot more wind-protected and you can get an accurate measurement. Then around 5:40am or so I talk with snowmaking control and the groomers on the hill. Both of them will often give me an estimate of new snowfall. Now, since most of those snowmakers and groomers are skiers/riders, they can usually give a pretty darn good idea of what snowfall is like up on the in the 2,000-4,000ft range. I take their considerations, along with what I've measured at 1,550ft and produce a range for the 6am report. Then, when I finally get on the hill, I have my usual sheltered areas at various elevations where I take measurements... and if need be, alter our snow numbers for the 9am update. With that said, I will never go more than 3" above what I personally measure at 1,500ft for the upper boundary of the new snowfall range, even if the groomers and snowmakers say there's a lot more up top. Its not that I don't trust them, but when my name is on the line, I'm not reporting anything unless I've personally seen it, haha. Last year there was a storm that was very elevation dependent (yet not due to temps, but due to orographic snowfall) and I had only measured 6" at 1,500ft. A groomer reported 14" at the summit and I threw that out and called it 6-8" of new snowfall. Well, I was wrong. There really was over a foot widespread on the upper mountain... and the local skiers absolutely loved that report. Getting face shots and skiing knee to thigh deep snow when the report showed 6" of new snow... I still remember our director of skiing joking with me saying, "Scott, you weren't just low, you were dead wrong, haha." However, with the Jay Peak report... throwing 19" out on the early morning report seems a little careless, as people really don't like when you are *that* far beyond reality. They probably would've been better off reporting 8" and then bumping it up to 13"... that goes over a lot smoother than going from 19" to 13". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 At Ellen (Sugarbush) today there was accumulating snow at the summit all morning, but it was sunny in the valley. Sugarbush reported 3" overnight at the summit (in reality I think it was only 2" but there was definitely well over 1".. either 2 or 3") and nothing at the base. The last 24 hours of snowfall has been very elevation dependent. I don't buy the 19" report at Jay at all given the 7" reported at the coop. But the updated 13" sounds reasonable given 7" at the coop. (48 hour totals) Yeah I think 13" sounds reasonable on the upper mountain...I'm not there but I trust my colleague at Stowe and he's got 9" as the upper number for this event. Given that J.Spin is at around 6" at 495ft near the Spine, its not hard to believe 9" at 3,600ft. Not bashing coops at all, but in my experience they run low. I know ORH_Wxman (Will) has stated this for SNE as well... not sure why the co-operative observations tend to be on the low side (I'm guessing its because they just measure once every 24 hours) but they are much better with "TOTAL" (snow-on-ground) rather than the "NEW" column. J.Spin is very diligent in measuring every 6-12 hours and I wish the coops were like that as well. They're totals would be much higher than the once a day at 6 or 7am stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 getting bothered by snow reports is kind of like being disappointed when you find out she has 36c's when you were hoping for 36DD's, sure one number looks bigger, and may be better, but they both are better than not seeing anything at all. hopefully the 5 day flurry can over perform, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Local met this morning has me at a solid solid chance for flurries this weekend. I'm still optimistic that there will be a surprise with that third low but hope is fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Local met this morning has me at a solid solid chance for flurries this weekend. I'm still optimistic that there will be a surprise with that third low but hope is fading. Yeah, I felt a lot better yesterday than I do now. I suppose it could all do a 180 and turn out positive for us, but as of right now? Yeah, suck pill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 and the beat goes on, another screw job. looks like our area to be in a black hole through sunday a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I hadn’t looked at the NWS page yet this morning, but I heard Roger Hill mention that winter weather advisories had been extended into our county (Washington) so I stopped in for a look. Our point forecast has us down for 3 to 6 inches of snow through tomorrow, and the BTV storm total graphic suggests about 5 inches of accumulation in our area. For the southern part of our county (Waitsfield, Warren, Sugarbush, Mad River Glen, etc.) the forecast is a bit higher and is calling for 4 to 8 inches. Roger mentioned that the more northern areas will get into the action as we head farther into the weekend and upslope comes into play, affecting Jay Peak in the north, southward through Smuggler’s Notch, Stowe, Bolton Valley, Mad River Glen, and Sugarbush. Hopefully the mountains can maximize the initial synoptic storm and upslope to get a decent dump, because we’re moving into the heard of the ski season and they could use it. With the complexity of the storm system it should be interesting to see where the snow totals wind up by the end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I hadn’t looked at the NWS page yet this morning, but I heard Roger Hill mention that winter weather advisories had been extended into our county (Washington) so I stopped in for a look. Our point forecast has us down for 3 to 6 inches of snow through tomorrow, and the BTV storm total graphic suggests about 5 inches of accumulation in our area. For the southern part of our county (Waitsfield, Warren, Sugarbush, Mad River Glen, etc.) the forecast is a bit higher and is calling for 4 to 8 inches. Roger mentioned that the more northern areas will get into the action as we head farther into the weekend and upslope comes into play, affecting Jay Peak in the north, southward through Smuggler’s Notch, Stowe, Bolton Valley, Mad River Glen, and Sugarbush. Hopefully the mountains can maximize the initial synoptic storm and upslope to get a decent dump, because we’re moving into the heard of the ski season and they could use it. With the complexity of the storm system it should be interesting to see where the snow totals wind up by the end of the weekend. I heard Roger's forecast as well this morning. I'll take 2 or 3 inches, though it looks like from the map you posted, BTV has us at 4.6. Anything will suffice at this point. Somewhat chilly out this morning, I had 5° at my house. Feels like it could be a bit lower than that down here in the valley in Montpelier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Never mind El Niño or La Niña, week three coming up this month will be "El Frigido" for millions. During the early part of week two of January, a cold air mass over northwestern Canada and Alaska will be getting colder under clear skies, with no effective sunshine. Later that week, this air mass will begin to move southward. As Long Range Expert Meteorologist Joe Bastardi suggested, the cold will continue to spread out from the northern Plains during weeks two and three this month. This January could end up being the coldest for the nation since 1985. dident he say that jan will be warm in his winter prediction this guy is just a now cast met he has no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what is that band off the s me coast? is that ocean effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what is that band off the s me coast? is that ocean effect? Yes, It looks like it or its a trough trying to get established....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey Eric, It looks like its heading towards your house.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hey Eric, It looks like its heading towards your house.......... I have the NWS radar and WU radar up. NWS is much more impressive. WU has a small patch of snow approaching SFM. I'm keeping a close eye on this, though it may be a red herring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 was that forecasted? looks like it is getting inland a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have the NWS radar and WU radar up. NWS is much more impressive. WU has a small patch of snow approaching SFM. I'm keeping a close eye on this, though it may be a red herring. you have a link to the nws radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 you have a link to the nws radar? GYX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 was that forecasted? looks like it is getting inland a bit. The forecast called for a chance of snow showers after 1pm, little or no accumulation. I don't know if this ribbon was forecast. I hope it wasn't. lol Kinda looks like it's fizzling out now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GYX radar Thanks for the link. I need to bookmark that one. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.