Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 will need to see if any of the other 18z models follow it and of course the meso's. RAP isn't good, it's been running the CCB even further offshore than the 18z NAM. The idea on the 18z NAM is fine, but it may need to be shifted a little further east later on. The cutoff is about over my head in the end aside of OE. OE is no longer ideal the storm is too far out. So that is really going to limit upside potential too. I'd probably shift this a little east maybe 20 miles, drop the 3" line onto the actual western cape, push the 6+ to the eastern 1/3 of the cape only. The models have had this storm for about a week....I wouldn't call that garbage. The models will always be perceived as being bad, when it is a "close call" and they have their normal wavers. They are tools... they have their strengths and weaknesses...and aside from the known wild variations of the NAM, IMO, the globals of value haven't been any worse than other winters....it's just this winter there were a lot of storms that were "close" to someone on this board (ie northeast). But, there have been a few head scratching runs for sure. Anyway, good luck to the Cape and the Islands. JMHO going back 20 years of following them very closely I don't think in the critical 24-60 timeframe they have offered significant improvement to what we had several years ago this particular year. I think what's made it worse is that the Euro has not been as steadfast as in previous years so there's no model to fall back on. It's leaving forecasters in a really tough position and IMO there's going to be a lot of irate people on the western half of the Cape tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I can't believe I got roped in on this one. It's like a slow motion train wreck I can't stop watching. RGEM is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcglups Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Descending ascat pass shows an impressive circulation with gale force west winds in the southern quadrant. This thing is going to tap the GS and follow it northward and then the tug of war with the UL swinging it north when it gets up near 40n. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The models have had this storm for about a week....I wouldn't call that garbage. The models will always be perceived as being bad, when it is a "close call" and they have their normal wavers. They are tools... they have their strengths and weaknesses...and aside from the known wild variations of the NAM, IMO, the globals of value haven't been any worse than other winters....it's just this winter there were a lot of storms that were "close" to someone on this board (ie northeast). But, there have been a few head scratching runs for sure. Anyway, good luck to the Cape and the Islands. I agree for the most part...the error hasn't been that large, it's just that it has a high impact possibility for a small zone that was shifting around. I mean being within 100 miles on a day 5 prog isn't bad at all...it's all been sort of within the envelope of what I would think would be acceptable. Being on the western edge of a major nor'easter always runs the risk of wobbles and makes it seem like the models are awful...but I mean I've seen plenty of storms over the years where the ALB/BTV zone is on the west edge of the heavier stuff, and it can vary right up to an event start time between the St Lawerance Valley and MPV. It's not just this season that the models have jumped around. With this storm the margin of error has been literally a few counties wide...it's just that the stakes are so high that it seems magnified. It's not like this has been modeled as tracking near Cape Cod Canal 3 days out and has now moved east of the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 CAR has really ramped up forecast totals downeast, and extended the blizzard warnings. Washington Cty now progged for up to 18" with winds gusting to 60. Must see a late hook. Edit: Eastern tip - Cutler/Lubec - in the 18-24" color! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 RAP isn't good, it's been running the CCB even further offshore than the 18z NAM. The idea on the 18z NAM is fine, but it may need to be shifted a little further east later on. The cutoff is about over my head in the end aside of OE. OE is no longer ideal the storm is too far out. So that is really going to limit upside potential too. I'd probably shift this a little east maybe 20 miles, drop the 3" line onto the actual western cape, push the 6+ to the eastern 1/3 of the cape only. JMHO going back 20 years of following them very closely I don't think in the critical 24-60 timeframe they have offered significant improvement to what we had several years ago this particular year. I think what's made it worse is that the Euro has not been as steadfast as in previous years so there's no model to fall back on. It's leaving forecasters in a really tough position and IMO there's going to be a lot of irate people on the western half of the Cape tomorrow. LOL! I guess my perspective is skewed a bit....I used to have to forcast for ENY with the NGM and LFM...and of course actual meteorology!! Good luck to you....and don't be suprised if there isn't a western band outside the main CCB...which could enhance any OES's...IMO. Thanks for letting an "outsider" chat for a bit. Your analysis has been a pleasure to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Perhaps if we were sitting in Halifax we'd be marveling at how well this storm has been modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 RAP isn't good, it's been running the CCB even further offshore than the 18z NAM. The idea on the 18z NAM is fine, but it may need to be shifted a little further east later on. The cutoff is about over my head in the end aside of OE. OE is no longer ideal the storm is too far out. So that is really going to limit upside potential too. I'd probably shift this a little east maybe 20 miles, drop the 3" line onto the actual western cape, push the 6+ to the eastern 1/3 of the cape only. JMHO going back 20 years of following them very closely I don't think in the critical 24-60 timeframe they have offered significant improvement to what we had several years ago this particular year. I think what's made it worse is that the Euro has not been as steadfast as in previous years so there's no model to fall back on. It's leaving forecasters in a really tough position and IMO there's going to be a lot of irate people on the western half of the Cape tomorrow. I think looking at *so much* data and model runs also confuses the situation. I mean honestly, what was the error in miles at 3 days out? Look at that gradient, even 20 miles is huge in terms of impact but do we really expect all the models to nail it down to that level of confidence? You're talking two counties wide between nothing and warning/blizzard snows. That's a hard level to expect the models to hit on the nail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Perhaps if we were sitting in Halifax we'd be marveling at how well this storm has been modeled. yeah...I mean if you were in the meat of this storm, these wobbles wouldn't really mean much. Like if this was going to track between the benchmark and SNE, everyone in SNE would get slammed regardless of if it burps even 50 miles one way or another, no one would care, haha. Meanwhile everyone in the ALB forecast area would be saying how awful it's been modeled as those 50 mile moves make a huge difference.It's always going to be like that on the western fringe, or likewise on the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Tough to swallow that 75 miles means the difference between 1" and 15"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro definitely did not handle the SNE situation well. Not a big deal in DC, but from here and points NE...it's gonna vomit on itself. One of the few times this winter it did this from 60hrs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Tough to swallow that 75 miles means the difference between 1" and 15"+ Yeah this one hurts. 100-150 miles this would have been a spring storm for the ages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro definitely did not handle the SNE situation well. Not a big deal in DC, but from here and points NE...it's gonna vomit on itself. One of the few times this winter it did this from 60hrs in. Its has not been bulletproof inside 72 hrs this winter…it has happens a few times this winter. The upgrade has messed with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 First time ever 4 blizzard warnings in one year on the Cape? That alone is impressive. This only goes back to 81 but gives an idea of the rarity. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/yearly_counts.php?wfo=BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 LOL! I guess my perspective is skewed a bit....I used to have to forcast for ENY with the NGM and LFM...and of course actual meteorology!! Good luck to you....and don't be suprised if there isn't a western band outside the main CCB...which could enhance any OES's...IMO. Thanks for letting an "outsider" chat for a bit. Your analysis has been a pleasure to read. LakeEffect....LFM is before my time... I remember the NGM well and kind of miss it. It's was predictably terrible. Back on the 1/25/00 debacle it was the very first model to throw the hint that attention was being focused on the wrong s/w. Of course it lost that idea the very next run...but still If the Euro had remained as accurate as in years past this year would have felt the same. The problem is both the Euro and Euro Ens haven't been the rock they once were, for whatever reason. Likewise appreciate you dropping in, we'll have to see how this plays out but I think I'm too far west. I think looking at *so much* data and model runs also confuses the situation. I mean honestly, what was the error in miles at 3 days out? Look at that gradient, even 20 miles is huge in terms of impact but do we really expect all the models to nail it down to that level of confidence? You're talking two counties wide between nothing and warning/blizzard snows. That's a hard level to expect the models to hit on the nail. PF I think the issue is, what we even saw last night at 0z, or this am at 12z is unlikely to be the actual outcome. It just hasn't seemed like we're having the situations this year where we can rely on a model. The Euro hasn't stopped going east now for two days. In years gone by we would at least have that model that would hold the course. RGEM is okay, much like the 18z NAM it draws the 3 or 4" line over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 First time ever 4 blizzard warnings in one year on the Cape? That alone is impressive. This only goes back to 81 but gives an idea of the rarity. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/yearly_counts.php?wfo=BOX Yes but let's not talk about actual verification of said blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro definitely did not handle the SNE situation well. Not a big deal in DC, but from here and points NE...it's gonna vomit on itself. One of the few times this winter it did this from 60hrs in. Yeah, the couple runs of 1.0" QPF at BOS and 0.5" at HFD were the killers. The various ensembles always seemed to be over-done though especially in these situations with a big storm...the QPF will always be more widespread on the ensembles than reality because of those amped 1.5" members while most are like 0.1-0.25" type deal, but I know you know that. Good reason why you guys were warning everyone that the precip shield would be a lot narrower than the ensembles were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Its has not been bulletproof inside 72 hrs this winter…it has happens a few times this winter. The upgrade has messed with it... No, it's been good here inside 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 18z high res NAM is 5" at the Canal and 20-25" SE side of ACK. YIKES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The models have had this storm for about a week....I wouldn't call that garbage. The models will always be perceived as being bad, when it is a "close call" and they have their normal wavers. They are tools... they have their strengths and weaknesses...and aside from the known wild variations of the NAM, IMO, the globals of value haven't been any worse than other winters....it's just this winter there were a lot of storms that were "close" to someone on this board (ie northeast). But, there have been a few head scratching runs for sure. Anyway, good luck to the Cape and the Islands. We've had a lot of close calls where 50 miles makes a huge difference...so the perceived error in the models will be much larger than objective numbers...models did have some struggles on certain storms this year, but they just seem worse than they actually were due to such drastic changes in sensible wx with a 50 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I can't believe I got roped in on this one. It's like a slow motion train wreck I can't stop watching. RGEM is in.I didn't . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 We've had a lot of close calls where 50 miles makes a huge difference...so the perceived error in the models will be much larger than objective numbers...models did have some struggles on certain storms this year, but they just seem worse than they actually were due to such drastic changes in sensible wx with a 50 mile shift. Do you think EURO/GGEM are correct in 1-2 inches back to west of HFD with the upper level energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Do you think EURO/GGEM are correct in 1-2 inches back to west of HFD with the upper level energy? I dunno about 2 inches...but I could see a coating to an inch. Its going to be sublimation delight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I don't see anything to say the idea that the heaviest remains over the tip of the Cape/ACK is wrong. RAP points to exactly that.... but the fun is just beginning. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140325&endTime=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro shows 60-65 knot gusts over the Cape. NAM probably close to that as well. GFS is pretty meh for winds IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The models have had this storm for about a week....I wouldn't call that garbage. The models will always be perceived as being bad, when it is a "close call" and they have their normal wavers. They are tools... they have their strengths and weaknesses...and aside from the known wild variations of the NAM, IMO, the globals of value haven't been any worse than other winters....it's just this winter there were a lot of storms that were "close" to someone on this board (ie northeast). But, there have been a few head scratching runs for sure. This is kind of what I thought too, at least within the 6 day period. There always seemed to be that OTS, with a good chance on the cape scenario, which seems to be what will happen in the end. All it took was a few weenie solutions that shifted everything west throughout the life of this system to send everyone into full blown Oscar Meyer hot dog mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If we cant be there, at least we've got Cantori from Chatham... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If we cant be there, at least we've got Cantori from Chatham... Wow. He ended up going there? Kind of surprised seeing that this thing could have been/ be nothing in the end. I don't think I get the Weather Channel any more on my DirecTV. I haven't checked in a while but I think there was a contract issue going on a few weeks back that ended in the Weather Channel being cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Road trip to Machias MEZ017-029-030-260245-/O.EXT.KCAR.BZ.W.0001.140326T1000Z-140327T0400Z/CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DEBLOIS...GRAND LAKE STREAM...MEDDYBEMPS...PEMBROKE...PERRY...PRINCETON...ELLSWORTH...BAR HARBOR...BLUE HILL...EASTPORT...MACHIAS...CHERRYFIELD245 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHTEDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...* LOCATIONS...COASTAL AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 20 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY.* TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. MANY ROADS WILL BECOME IMPASSIBLE.* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TRAVEL IS VERY STRONGLY DISCOURAGED...AS MANY ROADS WILL BECOME IMPASSIBLE.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHERINFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BEFOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I didn't .You did well grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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