Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Well at least inland we get some potential damaging gusts to 55 according to BOIX..some solace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If the pressures verify as modeled, and this had tracked 100 miles further west, this would have been a storm that rivaled no others for you fine folks in SNE. Would loved to have seen reports from under a CCB associated with a 955mb lp. Sorry about your close call!actually would have rivalled LF hurricanes we had here, glad this isn't slamming into us at 955 to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I'll be getting first hand reports from my father in law who lives in Halifax, NS and is the former head of the Canadian Weather Service Atlantic Division. He raved about Juan, looking forward to his comments about this coming storm. I'll see if I can get him to put up some posts.cool,look forward to those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Geez, models still playing catchup east. Heavy flizzard. My coating to 2" may be too aggressive after this run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 To those poo -pooing and debbying this storm..it should be eye opening to you how balls to the wall Phil is. You know how conservative he is in forecasting..When he calls for a blizzard, cane force winds and over a foot of snow..you probably should take notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 GYX has me on the 1"-2" and 2"-4" snowfall line for this storm with their updated map. If this trends anymore to the east, I will be lucky to see a coating and that will blow away with the high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 To those poo -pooing and debbying this storm..it should be eye opening to you how balls to the wall Phil is. You know how conservative he is in forecasting..When he calls for a blizzard, cane force winds and over a foot of snow..you probably should take notice Phil is outstanding but he will probably bust. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Well at least inland we get some potential damaging gusts to 55 according to BOIX..some solace Sweet, I'll have partly cloudy skies with wind chills in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 To those poo -pooing and debbying this storm..it should be eye opening to you how balls to the wall Phil is. You know how conservative he is in forecasting..When he calls for a blizzard, cane force winds and over a foot of snow..you probably should take notice 4" blizzard? It's going east, the blizzard warning is going to need to come down and be replaced probably with an advisory when all is said and done aside of maybe the extreme SE part of the Cape and ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 We may not have a flake west of the canal...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 To those poo -pooing and debbying this storm..it should be eye opening to you how balls to the wall Phil is. You know how conservative he is in forecasting..When he calls for a blizzard, cane force winds and over a foot of snow..you probably should take notice hopefully he didnt look at the 18z nam, which gives almost nothing to anyone-east trend still in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 We may not have a flake west of the canal...lol. So discouraged not spending a ton of time looking but I think OES potential is still pretty solid in PYM county and the cape. That should give us something, but it really looks to me like it's going to pivot almost entirely around the Cape. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 hopefully he didnt look at the 18z nam, which gives almost nothing to anyone-east trend still in progress Why would anyone be looking at models now as the storm is already unfolding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The HRRR takes the storm ENE off North Carolina as well, though its only out to 15 hours. The RAP looks a little more promising for the Cape and SE MA with precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Why would anyone be looking at models now as the storm is already unfolding? So you know when to take down the blizzard warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Yeah this is going east big time. The Nam is a toaster. The box amounts are going to have to be slashed on the west side of the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Why would anyone be looking at models now as the storm is already unfolding? if it showed a west trend, you'd have been all over it. Wagons east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 So you know when to take down the blizzard warnings? I can't imagine the Euro is going to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Yeah this is going east big time. The Nam is a toaster. The box amounts are going to have to be slashed on the west side of the canal. It's hard to let go to earlier runs but it's really time to see what's happening and adjust. West of mid cape it's a non-starter really. Interesting only in the late season nature, the winds and the cold. Couple of inches UNLESS OE works magic, east of there maybe 3-6", maybe more towards Chatham and ACK. Blizzard conditions maybe if enough of it blows around, but I doubt a long enough period of sustained heavy snows. I have some hope for the OE stuff, but C-2" seems fine here. if we can get some OE banding we may have some fun with non-storm snow. EDIT: Has to be watched for a Ginxy attack...it is a monstrous low and they can be unpredictable and do what they want. Yes the models are moving east but even the NAM is 30 miles from smoking the cape in an epic blizzard still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It's hard to let go to earlier runs but it's really time to see what's happening and adjust. West of mid cape it's a non-starter really. Interesting only in the late season nature, the winds and the cold. Couple of inches UNLESS OE works magic, east of there maybe 3-6", maybe more towards Chatham and ACK. Blizzard conditions maybe if enough of it blows around, but I doubt a long enough period of sustained heavy snows. I have some hope for the OE stuff, but C-2" seems fine here. if we can get some OE banding we may have some fun with non-storm snow. EDIT: Has to be watched for a Ginxy attack...it is a monstrous low and they can be unpredictable and do what they want. Yes the models are moving east but even the NAM is 30 miles from smoking the cape in an epic blizzard still. Blowing powder on Nantucket in late March is a pretty special event from a strictly meteorological perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It's hard to let go to earlier runs but it's really time to see what's happening and adjust. West of mid cape it's a non-starter really. Interesting only in the late season nature, the winds and the cold. Couple of inches UNLESS OE works magic, east of there maybe 3-6", maybe more towards Chatham and ACK. Blizzard conditions maybe if enough of it blows around, but I doubt a long enough period of sustained heavy snows. I have some hope for the OE stuff, but C-2" seems fine here. if we can get some OE banding we may have some fun with non-storm snow. EDIT: Has to be watched for a Ginxy attack...it is a monstrous low and they can be unpredictable and do what they want. Yes the models are moving east but even the NAM is 30 miles from smoking the cape in an epic blizzard still. I think your good for a couple of inches, ocean effect should give you something as well. I would still watch closely, you aren't far away from much much more, but back here its pretty much over for more than an inch or two. As weird as this is, bouchard has had a really good handle on this. Never bit on big amounts anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Why would anyone be looking at models now as the storm is already unfolding? So should we skip the first 24 hours of all models?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Well the NAM has the mother of all CCB for the fishes, that is just insane 1.5"+ QPF in 6 hrs out there, wow. So close for the cape and islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 NAM at 30 hours. Wow what a precipitation cutoff it's showing. That can't be more than 250 miles between 2.5" and 0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Blowing powder on Nantucket in late March is a pretty special event from a strictly meteorological perspective. Nantucket still gets whacked in these runs, even with a continued shift east - Ackwaves is going to go out like a rock star this winter. The place to be is ACK. I think your good for a couple of inches, ocean effect should give you something as well. I would still watch closely, you aren't far away from much much more, but back here its pretty much over for more than an inch or two. As weird as this is, bouchard has had a really good handle on this. Never bit on big amounts anywhere There should be big amounts out on the elbow by Chatham and down to ACK. We'll have to watch for a secondary band west of the real CCB in association with some OE. So should we skip the first 24 hours of all models?? Models by and large were garbage this winter and a major step backwards in terms of reliability vs previous years. Yes they identify real storms at longer ranges but their accuracy in the key 24-72 IMO was way, way off this year vs a couple of years ago. I think it goes beyond the pattern. Something is off, either in the obs going in, or the algos they adjusted. I remember 3 of 5 years ago looking at main and off hour runs and the differences between the forecast, 6h and init on the new was always REALLY minor. It was that way for many, many years. Towards the end of last year that changed. It was often tough to determine which model was running right. This year they all make major leaps on intensity and location aloft every six hours. It's just weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 wow what a shutout for New England on the NAM. Kind of glad in way IMBY-I don't need some bogus school delay for 1/3 of an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 wow what a shutout for New England on the NAM. Kind of glad in way IMBY-I don't need some bogus school delay for 1/3 of an inch of snow. I have a feeling that the 18Z NAM is not going to verify - that precipitation gradient is VERY sharp between jackpot and absolutely nothing. It will probably end up a little more spread out than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 wow what a shutout for New England on the NAM. Kind of glad in way IMBY-I don't need some bogus school delay for 1/3 of an inch of snow. NAM still gets the eastern 1/2 of the cape and looks a bit like the 12z euro. That said....look at the euro runs for the last 5-6...it's shifted east, east, east, east, east, east, east. I'll lean east here in the closing stages. Anyway epic kite flying weather. Final call coating to 2" here only bonus would be OE bands that may form after 9pm tonight. 1-3" western cape, 3-6" eastern cape, 4-8" ack and maybe SE Chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I have a feeling that the 18Z NAM is not going to verify - that precipitation gradient is VERY sharp between jackpot and absolutely nothing. It will probably end up a little more spread out than that. will need to see if any of the other 18z models follow it and of course the meso's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Models by and large were garbage this winter and a major step backwards in terms of reliability vs previous years. Yes they identify real storms at longer ranges but their accuracy in the key 24-72 IMO was way, way off this year vs a couple of years ago. I think it goes beyond the pattern. Something is off, either in the obs going in, or the algos they adjusted. I remember 3 of 5 years ago looking at main and off hour runs and the differences between the forecast, 6h and init on the new was always REALLY minor. It was that way for many, many years. Towards the end of last year that changed. It was often tough to determine which model was running right. This year they all make major leaps on intensity and location aloft every six hours. It's just weird. The models have had this storm for about a week....I wouldn't call that garbage. The models will always be perceived as being bad, when it is a "close call" and they have their normal wavers. They are tools... they have their strengths and weaknesses...and aside from the known wild variations of the NAM, IMO, the globals of value haven't been any worse than other winters....it's just this winter there were a lot of storms that were "close" to someone on this board (ie northeast). But, there have been a few head scratching runs for sure. Anyway, good luck to the Cape and the Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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