Baroclinic Zone Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 GGEM fine too for the Cape. Supports the box forecast. The tough part will be amounts will likely drop like a stone immediately west. Yeah, GGEM looks spot on. Probably pretty close to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro.... . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Little bump east....takes western Cape out of the big snows. (like >6")....still hits outer Cape and ACK good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro just could never get a handle on this one. Pretty much has been moving consistently east for about 2 or so days. Given the time left to event, propensity for this to continue to shift east I'm good with 1-3 or even C-2" here. Depending on when it falls it could just be falling snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro does have a large area of 1-2" to the west...not to dissimilar to some of the GEM model outputs. We'll have to see if that materializes. Even like HFD might get an inch if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Little bump east....takes western Cape out of the big snows. (like >6")....still hits outer Cape and ACK good. Writing is on the wall west of about mid-cape...well from somewhere between exit 4 and about exit 7....west of there NBD with amounts rapidly dropping off to just a coating to a few inches. For MBY I'd guess 1" or maybe 2", but could also see just a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Writing is on the wall west of about mid-cape...well from somewhere between exit 4 and about exit 7....west of there NBD with amounts rapidly dropping off to just a coating to a few inches. For MBY I'd guess 1" or maybe 2", but could also see just a coating. I don't think this storm will be going from like 6" to a coating a short distance...more like 8" to 3"...it does look like most along and SE of 95 will see 1-3". You are prob too pessimistic for YBY too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I don't think this storm will be going from like 6" to a coating a short distance...more like 8" to 3"...it does look like most along and SE of 95 will see 1-3". You are prob too pessimistic for YBY too. Based on current models I'm definitely too pessimistic. I just see this thing continuing to pedal east right up to the end and the cutoff between real snows and falling snows being over the mid cape somewhere. Everything came together about right, just a smidge weaker aloft delays everything and keeps it 5 or 10mb weaker than earlier forecasts....less wrap up, more flizzard. Stranger things have happened and at some point we need to end up on the positive side of a mini-bust to balance everything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I was holding out hope for southeastern PYM county. Start her up. See you in the lawn thread. Lesco bath incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro does have a large area of 1-2" to the west...not to dissimilar to some of the GEM model outputs. We'll have to see if that materializes. Even like HFD might get an inch if that verified.C-1" should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 1-3 here should do it. Nuisance stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The "JD Drew Winter" continues Time for Spring and yard work. Rip off the Band-Aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Euro does have a large area of 1-2" to the west...not to dissimilar to some of the GEM model outputs. We'll have to see if that materializes. Even like HFD might get an inch if that verified. So let's say 2-4" with lollies to 5" and go from there. Hey, somebody has to fill the role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 BOX Snow Map Updated. Everything has moved east (as was modeled)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Regardless of the amount of snow, there will still be some nasty/blizzard like conditions at times in the I-95 corridor with the very gusty winds. Euro wind projections at 12:00 UTC Wednesday. Lots of blowing and drifting of whatever falls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If the pressures verify as modeled, and this had tracked 100 miles further west, this would have been a storm that rivaled no others for you fine folks in SNE. Would loved to have seen reports from under a CCB associated with a 955mb lp. Sorry about your close call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Winds are starting to pick up. Feels like Jan out there. That is something that cant be forgotten here. The late season cold is impressive. Wonder if snow ends up being fluff? Despite the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If the pressures verify as modeled, and this had tracked 100 miles further west, this would have been a storm that rivaled no others for you fine folks in SNE. Would loved to have seen reports from under a CCB associated with a 955mb lp. Sorry about your close call! Edge of glory! I think it's showing some signs of breaking east even further, but it may get interesting up in downeast maine later as it hooks more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If the pressures verify as modeled, and this had tracked 100 miles further west, this would have been a storm that rivaled no others for you fine folks in SNE. Would loved to have seen reports from under a CCB associated with a 955mb lp. Sorry about your close call! It might not have strengthened as much had it been closer to the coast, not really sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Sorry for ot, but I just had to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It might not have strengthened as much had it been closer to the coast, not really sure. A potentially valid point...not sure how much percent of the strength is associated with the gulf stream, but the upper and mid-level dynamics are pretty wicked. I'd assume that a tight baroclinic zone (closer to the coast) would support nearly as strong lp given the same UL dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 As much as we hope for extreme weather, its very much a blessing for us in New England (especially SNE) that this storm didn't verify 100 miles west. This would have been a crushing storm, causing a lot of coastal flood damage and massive power outages and tree damage if it hit us. Instead, we can still observe in awe at the power of this storm, yet, be grateful we will not be experiencing the brunt of it, except for the poor folks up in Nova Scotia where it looks like they will be taking a direct hit. This progressive weather pattern just didn't line up the big storms for us, just a lot of cold and moderately snowy storms. The GFS is still very bullish on the wind field for this storm. It's going to be NASTY on Wednesday in SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Enough with the woe is me. Can we just track the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Enough with the woe is me. Can we just track the storm? There's not much to track TBH at this point. The first low has really fired up offshore, we're just starting to see pressures fall off the Delmarva and the first finger of moisture is developing OFFshore of the Delmarva, IMO that's a strong signal for later. IE, spike it. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140325&endTime=-1&duration=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 There's not much to track TBH at this point. The first low has really fired up offshore, we're just starting to see pressures fall off the Delmarva and the first finger of moisture is developing OFFshore of the Delmarva, IMO that's a strong signal for later. IE, spike it. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140325&endTime=-1&duration=4 There is a bomb about to drop with 70mph wind gusts on the cape, It's better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 There is a bomb about to drop with 70mph wind gusts on the cape, It's better than nothing It's interesting but for most of us the significance is no different vs a big blow slamming the coast of Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It's interesting but for most of us the significance is no different vs a big blow slamming the coast of Washington. I'm as guilty as any to a meltdown but it's been over for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I'm as guilty as any to a meltdown but it's been over for awhile Yeah but IMO it's WAAY offshore. I think it's further east than the heavier hitters modeled. In the end even the Cape may be watching the heaviest returns well east and left with the consolation OE. I put the chances of me breaking 4" at about 10% at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 By the way, found this gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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