Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 you can make one on the IKE page for yourselfhow much does this Suck Notice The H*Wind analyses are no longer offered for public use in preparation for transition to a US private sector firm as allowed under the Technology Transfer Act of 1986 (15 US Code 3710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Gfs still meh. Looks a little east of 6z. Damn this was so close to history Nowcast radars are going to be torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 you can make one on the IKE page for yourselfhere ya go Mikehttp://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 GFS put the final nail in the coffin here. I'll be lucky to see a flake. GL to those in SE MA / CC. Maybe you guys can still muster a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I'm thinking that this is turning into a now cast kinda day. We will soon be able to tell which models if any nailed the storm track. Must be a real nail bitting situation for the folks at the nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 im dizzy , last night cc finge, this am cc crush now back to fringe ??? good grief!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 This storm, while incredibly impressive, is a serious kick in the junk for most of us. Ah, what could have been..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Nowcast radars are going to be torture. Yeah, I think the best banding stays offshore maybe tickling Chatham and ACK. It'll look like it's coming straight north later, then begin to pivot and miraculously pivot right around the Cape or over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2. Dusting to an inch or so from about SE Taunton to Braintree southeast to about Plymouth and SE from there to western warehamish. 1-3" from there to about Sandwich, 2-4 sandwich to Barnstable exit 5, 3-6 east of there with spot higher amounts towards the outer elbow and ACK. I am banking more on being able to get an inch or so here because of the OE influence which should be able to overcome the massive subsidence at least for a time. I'm deliberately lighter than models from about mid cape east on the expectation of later slight shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 In a complete turnaround, E Mass folks now should be hoping that the convection that fires off the coast actually pulls the east low further east, allowing the coastal low to gain some separation. That's the only way it will make it anywhere up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Some weenie stumping is needed dear lord lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Some weenie stumping is needed dear lord lol What does that even mean? Are you saying the Cape has no shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 In a complete turnaround, E Mass folks now should be hoping that the convection that fires off the coast actually pulls the east low further east, allowing the coastal low to gain some separation. That's the only way it will make it anywhere up the coast. It looks like more than anything else everything is just a touch weaker aloft. As a result we're not seeing quite as strong a development and wrap up until later. I think everything played out pretty well, just notably weaker with the vorticity on the VA coast later and just offshore, so there's less ability to get moisture further north earlier in the period. That has been the trend most of the winter as dryslot mentioned....no blocking everything always seems to be smidge delayed right to the end. Maybe this one bucks the trend but my guess at this point in throwing in the towel is we see that slight slight delay continue and as a result Charlie Brown does a Scott Norwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It looks like more than anything else everything is just a touch weaker aloft. As a result we're not seeing quite as strong a development and wrap up until later. I think everything played out pretty well, just notably weaker with the vorticity on the VA coast later and just offshore, so there's less ability to get moisture further north earlier in the period. That has been the trend most of the winter as dryslot mentioned....no blocking everything always seems to be smidge delayed right to the end. Maybe this one bucks the trend but my guess at this point in throwing in the towel is we see that slight slight delay continue and as a result Charlie Brown does a Scott Norwood. You are probably right. BOX looking like they will need a new map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 You are probably right. BOX looking like they will need a new map.lol and change it again when the Euro comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 You are probably right. BOX looking like they will need a new map. They will and should wait until post Euro. Usually RGEM/Euro compromise at this range has worked the best. RGEM was arguably the wettest it's been this last run. RGEM face value is warning criteria for extreme SE PYM county, all of the Cape. Blizzard conditions with moderate to sometimes heavy snow, low visibility, blowing and drifting. I may be 100% wrong in thinking this bobbles east, annoying storm and that aspect of it may be clouding my judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 lol and change it again when the Euro comes out? No, they will need a new map AFTER the Euro comes out. The RAP really wants to split these lows much more than the GFS did. I don't know if that's a resolution thing or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 lol and change it again when the Euro comes out? This winter has been emotionally draining. Good and snowy but nothing came easy. There's been almost no cut and dry events, nothing we could just sit back and watch evolve wondering whether we'd get 10 or 15" inches. Always seems to be 2" or 10". This pattern may have gotten to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 No, they will need a new map AFTER the Euro comes out. The RAP really wants to split these lows much more than the GFS did. I don't know if that's a resolution thing or not. BOX has been good with this event. Not sure they change much even if the Euro is a tick lighter only because it still could meet the criteria. RAP may be pretty useless with such an offshore system but I thought it looked decent. ACKwaves is about the only one guaranteed to have a blast, Phil is right there too with a high probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I remember it. An absolute crusher for large areas of the megapolis. I was in 7th grade in New Jersey and it was very special. Wish I was old enough to have witnessed it. Great spectacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 GGEM looking better for Cape Cod. Still has a crazy double LP off coast of Carolinas... For Cape Cod: GGEM = 8 inches NAM = 8-10 inches GFS = 5 inches Euro = 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Rgem looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 GGEM fine too for the Cape. Supports the box forecast. The tough part will be amounts will likely drop like a stone immediately west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I've resigned to shoot for only 2" so I can eclipse 60". Let's do it! the 3/24 12z Euro and the 3/25 0z Euro did not change much..and I don't expect it to on its upcoming run. As much as it's had troubles this winter in the 3-4 day range, it's not one to waiver within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 anyway I'm out for a few hours, will be an interesting evolution. I'm on the way light side of all the forecasts at noon/box etc, may go down on this one but just have a hunch it follows the seasonal trend to juggle east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I remember it. An absolute crusher for large areas of the megapolis. I was in 7th grade in New Jersey and it was very special. 8th grade for me. It was cold and raw when we got to school that day, 6-8" of powder and SN+ as we boarded the buses when classes were called at noon. About 18" total in NNJ, most falling with temps in the upper teens, mighty cold for March snow there. Expecting clouds, wind, and maybe a dusting at my inland location. We've done mighty well this month, however, so whining not permitted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Light snow here in Augusta Maine 25F Has anyone seen the CMC yet?? more west ..more precip ..wonder how this will play out on Wednesday...being as progressive as is..still think the snow totals are two low for Maine when it gets into the Gulf of Maine...just saying. new Euro could be a game changer for us in much of Maine. http://NeWeathertrack.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 What a gorgeous trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 What a gorgeous trough. Nice baroclinic leaf taking shape as well. Everything is too far east by just a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I'll be getting first hand reports from my father in law who lives in Halifax, NS and is the former head of the Canadian Weather Service Atlantic Division. He raved about Juan, looking forward to his comments about this coming storm. I'll see if I can get him to put up some posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I have clients in from Coleson Cove Generating Station near St. John in New Brunswick right now. I am going to ask if any family members can send us some sweet vids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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