Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Scott,http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=027&fixhh=1&hh=030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Luckily I have no responsibility for this one. Will be interesting to see unfold for you guys and the Cape. This one is really a no win forecast. It's going to go one way or the other, total crush or total miss for the most part even here. Scott,http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=027&fixhh=1&hh=030 Thanks didn't know that detail was available. Just as a note the RAP...and who knows what it's worth, it's about similar to the 6z NAM hi res along the Delmarva, maybe actually a tick more extreme. It's definitely getting what I still think is key - the western low going a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Scott,http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=027&fixhh=1&hh=030 Steve check out the 18h 6z RGEM vs the 24h 0z RGEM, really highlights what I was flipping out over last night. Simplistically notice the difference? 6z wetter RGEM has the bigger low off NC, 0z dry RGEM focused east. We will know very early which way this goes based on how models handle the NC low at 12-15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 09z SREFs bumped precip N & W but they sort of had to given that they were one of the driest solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Here's my amateur thoughts for right now, in line with a lot of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I melted down admittedly. Messenger bringing me back from the ledge. Gonna be a fun one to nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I melted down admittedly. Messenger bringing me back from the ledge. Gonna be fun to nowcasr Oh my secondary meltdown is on standby. The RGEM from 0z to 6z. Note off the coast of NC the gentle shift in focus from offshore back to NC for long enough that everything is able to pivot before it phases. If the offshore low gets a head of steam we're hosed. We'll see very quickly this run. On the + side I see no signs of rapid development way offshore. We may be okay, and based on the delicate nature either way I expect this run to bring a lot of surprises. Hide the breakables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Everybody deserves a meltdown lol these last 6 weeks in sne have been brutal. That being said, box map looks fine. Maybe a bit more on the cape. Going to be a messy morning tomorrow, maybe the last one of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Also more crude support for wetter solutions vs last nights 0z. Notice on the RGEM panels Steve linked us too down by Florida? Look at 6h 6z vs 12h 0z over Florida? Notice how the dry version was firing a lot of moisture up over south florida while the later wetter version for us kind of had that sliding SW of Marco through the keys? http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140325&endTime=-1&duration=6 The 6z was much better in that area, obviously that tied to what was going on aloft which the dry models overdid down there and later contributed to offshore development which was WRONG. Offshore actually looks really putrid to me, and that's not a bad thing, so let's see what shakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 lol, Its late march, You win some you lose some, I think most on this board had an above avg winter overall, Up here march bailed it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 As an aside and it's value is always sketchy the 12z RAP isn't great, definitely would focus more offshore. But it's so far beyond the useful range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 As an aside and it's value is always sketchy the 12z RAP isn't great, definitely would focus more offshore. But it's so far beyond the useful range.... I'd only use the RAP for the 1st few hours of it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Steve check out the 18h 6z RGEM vs the 24h 0z RGEM, really highlights what I was flipping out over last night. Simplistically notice the difference? 6z wetter RGEM has the bigger low off NC, 0z dry RGEM focused east. We will know very early which way this goes based on how models handle the NC low at 12-15 hours. totally depending on western low handling, it tucks you get smoked, hands off to the East you are meh.This is in your wheelhouse,nowcast time,have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 The models haven't wavered outside of a very small detail here and there. Few folks caught up in the weeds here Have you looked at the NAM output for the cape vs. the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Charlie Brown is loosening up his leg like tony franklin right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Now that I just learned that I need to work at a house right on the water in Swansea tomorrow, I'm sure we're good for a foot. If I didn't have to work there tomorrow, the storm would slide harmlessly out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Charlie Brown is loosening up his leg like tony franklin right now..... Without looking, I'm guessing the NAM looks like crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Also more crude support for wetter solutions vs last nights 0z. Notice on the RGEM panels Steve linked us too down by Florida? Look at 6h 6z vs 12h 0z over Florida? Notice how the dry version was firing a lot of moisture up over south florida while the later wetter version for us kind of had that sliding SW of Marco through the keys? http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140325&endTime=-1&duration=6 The 6z was much better in that area, obviously that tied to what was going on aloft which the dry models overdid down there and later contributed to offshore development which was WRONG. Offshore actually looks really putrid to me, and that's not a bad thing, so let's see what shakes Just something I noticed too, look at the vorticity off the coast on the 6z NAM at hr 6...then look at the 12z NAM at initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Love how the NAM Agaaaain went 25 miles West or more. Has the CCB go over My head for a time even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Without looking, I'm guessing the NAM looks like crap? It is bombing out south of the Maxon Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Even the GFS has incredible conditions for them tomorrow morning. That is the spot to be. GFS gusts them close to hurricane force. We might give them a run for their money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Love how the NAM Agaaaain went 25 miles West or more. Has the CCB go over My head for a time even. Are you on a boat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Are you on a boat? NAM starts the pivot a little too far SE and the result is the north movement later in the period mainly misses all but the extreme SE part of the Cape. IMO if that situation plays out very little falls west of about Dennis as we're in the subsidence zone aside of OE. Will wait on the rest of the guidance, could just be a NAM bobble but really what atrocious run to run consistency in all models aside of the Euro. If I had to guess I'd go coating to 2" here, most of that from OE contribution off this run. Seems like this one really wants to lean east no matter how much the models keep toying with it. Of course pending rest of suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Up here march bailed it out That's an under-statement haha. Hoping this works out for cweat and the SE Mass crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 That's an under-statement haha. Hoping this works out for cweat and the SE Mass crew. Thanks, I'm kind of feeling this one is going to be east of me, Phil to ACKwaves stands the best chance. Euro has been leaning east for the last several runs, no reason to think that doesn't continue at 12z. Hyannis/Barnstable should be about the western extent of the "good" stuff west of there it's going to be tough sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 NAM starts the pivot a little too far SE and the result is the north movement later in the period mainly misses all but the extreme SE part of the Cape. IMO if that situation plays out very little falls west of about Dennis as we're in the subsidence zone aside of OE. Will wait on the rest of the guidance, could just be a NAM bobble but really what atrocious run to run consistency in all models aside of the Euro. If I had to guess I'd go coating to 2" here, most of that from OE contribution off this run. Seems like this one really wants to lean east no matter how much the models keep toying with it. Of course pending rest of suite. P-Town was about 5 miles from never being seen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Geezus NAM goes negative tilt,holy CC winds. Looking at that beast, bigger than Sandy,just as powerful.Heckuva wave machine 40-50 foot seas offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 NAM starts the pivot a little too far SE and the result is the north movement later in the period mainly misses all but the extreme SE part of the Cape. IMO if that situation plays out very little falls west of about Dennis as we're in the subsidence zone aside of OE. Will wait on the rest of the guidance, could just be a NAM bobble but really what atrocious run to run consistency in all models aside of the Euro. If I had to guess I'd go coating to 2" here, most of that from OE contribution off this run. Seems like this one really wants to lean east no matter how much the models keep toying with it. Of course pending rest of suite. Yeah, NAM blew up that southern vort and pushes the best baroclinic zone offshore. Still looks ok for the Cape/Islands verbatim. I put some weight into the NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 late left hook, ftw? For Downeast Maine get's clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 late left hook, ftw? Too late for most of the viewers here though self included on the NAM. That'd be a situation where it puts out .3 or so west of the main band but little falls in the subsidence behind the epic deform band. Yeah, NAM blew up that southern vort and pushes the best baroclinic zone offshore. Still looks ok for the Cape/Islands verbatim. I put some weight into the NAM solution. Looks plausible. Just as big a problem is the position of the initial pivot...it's just a little too far SE by 30-40 miles so when it does pivot it misses. Seasonal trend has been progressive/east, and the Euro is definitely moving east slowly the last several runs. Is what it is....fitting end. Heavy winds, some OE snows, probably not more than a couple inches here and I wouldn't be surprised with just a coating or an inch if this evolution is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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