Brick Tamland Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Some tornado warnings around Kansas City. Live streaming showing a possible funnel cloud forming. http://livewire.kmbc.com/Event/Live_severe_weather_updates_from_KMBC_9_News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Confirmed tornado on the storm near Trenton, MO, according to off-duty NWS Employee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Might be a TDS with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 This might be an issue, heading for Columbia, MO shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Tomorrow could be rather interesting in North, Central, into Southeast Texas. The NAM has a particularly interesting output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Possible tornado near Trenton, MO today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 4km NAM is interesting IMBY tomorrow late afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 4km NAM is interesting IMBY tomorrow late afternoon/evening. To say the least. That's a persistent right-moving supercell with maxed-out UH from 22z to when it reaches Galveston Bay at 03z. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 To say the least. That's a persistent right-moving supercell with maxed-out UH from 22z to when it reaches Galveston Bay at 03z. Impressive. Got a link to the updraft helicity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Got a link to the updraft helicity? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~jdduda/forecast/loop.htm?param=maxUH&model=NAM&cycle=00Z Main page: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~jdduda/forecast/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 6z HRRR looks like it has some supercells firing around the DFW metroplex tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Morning Update from Jeff: A threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Ingredients coming together for a potentially active afternoon/early evening as a strong short wave over New Mexico moves eastward forcing the west TX dryline well eastward today along with an incoming frontal boundary from the NW. Area is firmly warm sectored this morning with warm and muggy dewpoints well into the 60’s and pushing 70 at most locations. Satellite images are starting to show mid level cloud enhancements over the Pecos Valley and this is likely the incoming lift associated with the short wave trough over New Mexico. Forecast models show excessive instability by early to mid afternoon over SE/C TX ahead of the dryline with CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and shear values of 30-50kts. While low level shear is modest the shear throughout the air column is more than enough to help with storm organization. Big question mark remains the capping inversion which held strong yesterday allowing virtually no thunderstorms at all over the area. A strong cap is noted at Corpus Christi and likely extends NE toward the Matagorda Bay region and then weakens across SE TX at some point. Given all the sea fog and low clouds again this morning it may be hard for the sun to break through and heat the surface today helping to erode that stubborn capping inversion. Will get some help with the cooling from the short wave in the mid levels and lift along both the dryline and approaching cold front…but if the cap breaks remains to be seen. Meso models are fairly evenly split strong to severe storms developing this afternoon. If storms do develop the instability in place will likely result in rapid development with storms quickly going severe, currently thinking is about a 50/50 shot. Meso models showing development show initiate of activity late this morning at the intersection of the dryline and cool front over the Hill Country and then spread a cluster of storms/possible bow echo ESE into E TX this afternoon and evening. Think inflow is fairly weak to support any bow echo across the region (with widespread damaging winds), but instead favor clustering of storms or a possible squall line. Think the main threat will be along an north of a line from Columbus to Sugar Land to Galveston where the capping will be weakest. Main threats will be large hail (possible very large…golfball size or bigger) and wind damage. Any tornado threat will likely be more focused over C TX where initial storm mode will be more supercells before growing into more of a line or cluster. Will have to watch trends closely this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 00/06Z high res guidance both insist on right mover action out of Central Texas. That motion would solve any remaining doubts about low level winds, at least relative to the storm. Agree with the Jeff above that shear is adequate in other levels of the atmo. If confidence were better one could argue for a small 10% tornado area. SPC offers a subtle hint in their #2 point South Texas Arklatex paragraph. If I still lived in Houston I would plan on chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 We are already seeing some break in the clouds across the Northern areas of SE Texas this morning. That should bode well for breaking the cap later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 HRRR is looking quite interesting: EDIT @ 120pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Watch incoming Storms starting to fire in TX near Comanche Went from 35dBZ to 70+ in three frames: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Before a cell tightens up and produces, I often see it take a 'Sideshow Bob' type arch along the northern half of the cell - like half a saw blade.I see that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 If I didn't have a prior commitment, I'd totally be chasing right now. Love action close to home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Stolen from Aggie weather FB. Despite clouds breaking nicely and temps over 80ºF around HOU, unlikely the cap, which is probably stronger down here than almost 100 miles NW, will break, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The line keeps developing a little on on the south end....maybe we'll get some action in Montgomery county. Planning to leave work early today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 618 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL ASHLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 618 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF SNYDER...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... PORTLAND AND MONTROSE AROUND 635 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 TW'd supercell near Greenville, MS has a very strong couplet aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Significant tornado potential with that cell, on the NE axis of strong instability and with 200-300 m2/s2 ESRH in the region per mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 2 EF2 tornadoes confirmed in MO from yesterday. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=eax&storyid=101395&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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