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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

New England has been affected by several pattern orientations since mid winter, all resulting cold. It's like a deeper, sort of secondary differential observation regarding the nature of events, but in simple terms, cold has been delivered a multitude of different ways and is thus an emergent "lucky" result more than a singular persistent drive.

We've seen -EPO dominance, relayed into +PNA dominance, then relayed (recently) into -NAO, all of which can and did provide cool biased looking patterns, and to somewhat successful degree in the thermometer houses, too. But I only say "somewhat", because in a one particular respect it simply isn't true. Here is the ORH list of various climate data, so far for this current April, as taken off of KTAN's NWS climate data:

 DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================
 1  54  29  42   2  23   0 0.00  0.0    M  7.7 15  20   M    M   1        21  30
 2  55  33  44   3  21   0 0.00  0.0    M  8.4 16 290   M    M   0        21 280
 3  53  32  43   2  22   0 0.00  0.0    M  9.0 17 300   M    M   0        22 290
 4  46  33  40  -2  25   0 0.13  0.0    M  7.3 16 120   M    M   8 1      23 130
 5  46  31  39  -3  26   0 0.18  0.0    M 13.6 30 290   M    M   8 12     40 280
 6  54  29  42   0  23   0 0.00  0.0    M  9.4 17 290   M    M   0        23 290
 7  56  38  47   4  18   0 0.07  0.0    M  8.4 18 160   M    M   4 12     22 200
 8  61  39  50   7  15   0 0.39  0.0    M 14.2 30 290   M    M   7 12     41 260
 9  54  32  43  -1  22   0 0.00  0.0    M 12.6 25 290   M    M   1        34 300
10  58  30  44   0  21   0    T  0.0    M 15.5 26 230   M    M   0        35 240
11  65  44  55  11  10   0 0.06  0.0    M 10.4 20 210   M    M   7        25 210
12  65  41  53   8  12   0 0.04  0.0    M 10.6 20 250   M    M   1 1      26 260
13  68  43  56  11   9   0 0.06  0.0    M 11.6 22 220   M    M   4 1      29 230
14  71  57  64  18   1   0 0.00  0.0    M 21.7 35 220   M    M   2        48 200
15  60  33  47   1  18   0 1.16  0.0    M 20.3 37 190   M    M  10 1      49 200
16  39  25  32 -14  33   0 0.26  0.6    M 13.6 26 310   M    M   2 16     35 300
17  42  24  33 -14  32   0 0.00  0.0    M  9.1 15  70   M    M   0        22  60
18  44  26  35 -12  30   0 0.00  0.0    M  6.1 13  40   M    M   3        17  30
19  58  33  46  -2  19   0 0.00  0.0    M 11.4 23 340   M    M   0        32 350
20  55  36  46  -2  19   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 14 190   M    M   0        19 100
21  68  34  51   3  14   0 0.00  0.0    M 11.2 18 250   M    M   0        23 250
22  71  46  59  10   6   0 0.01  0.0    M 12.8 21 210   M    M   3        28 220
23  51  41  46  -3  19   0 0.28  0.0    M 14.6 26 340   M    M   9 1      37 310
24  54  37  46  -3  19   0 0.00  0.0    M 20.0 37 310   M    M   0        48 320
25  62  36  49  -1  16   0 0.00  0.0    M  8.2 16 310   M    M   2        23 320
26  46  39  43  -7  22   0 0.58  0.0    M  4.3 10 180   M    M   9 12     12 130
What is interesting to me is that despite the cold tapestry of dominating teleconnectors leading into and throughout the month, the number of positive depature days outnumbers those of negative ...not by much but still two days. 14 vs 12 respectively. Moreover, summing the magnitudes and dividing by n-terms yields ~ +.7 (this arithmetic was done quite quickly by eye and mind and is not intended to be exact, just used to illustrate a point).

I have noticed this over the last 20 years. Cool characteristic patterns under perform compared to warm one's of equal apparent magnitude. I am wondering if this, and other amid of myriad of examples, are part in partial [most likely] to the 30-year observed warming climate. Noting that places around the latitude and longitude of Chicago over the conus, observed the coldest January, ever! Meanwhile, the Earth as a whole, observed the 4th warmest January. These, of course, meaning since the the evolution of science and monitoring.

It is a tendency to live inside the proverbial box, and not be so aware [perhaps] that the real characteristic of a system is defined by a much larger realm. I've been bitching and complaining in my usual inimitable way regarding both the expectation, and what was perceived to have verified of April, this year and most of yore. Then come to find upon the objective observation of what has been clocked? Wrong. Totally normal. Probably, these (+) or (-) meaningless garbage decimal point departures currently scattered around the area will end up telling a story about a "cold" April that truly wasn't that cold at all.

Perception, sensible weather, and veracious climate science .. tsk tsk tsk, how they do part company.

What do the teles tell you about day 10?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

What do the teles tell you about day 10?

 

Not much...  At this time of year, the teleconnectors can be as stochastic as cycle to cycle model runs at that range.  You really only get .... what, 30 to 50someodd % more deteministic value when using the teles during DJF ... It starts to reduce in March, then plummets to less skill, particulaly heading into May. ..Not zero, but not much better. 

The reason for that is because the wave lengths/numbers become more nebular in construct around the hemisphere, whereby mass fields are balanced along short scales of distance.  In simple words, a -NAO at a given magnitude has an entirely different implication in July than it does in January, and ...compounding further, in the nebularity of autumns and springs, you get more chaos to frost that uncertainty cake. 

 

Adding into that that the Euro is a zealot to amplify in the D7-10 range as an on-going ...local problem to our hemispheric scope (that somehow manages to evade to it's verification scores ...), it is vastly more probably that the next cycle of any Euro run in April will look entirely different when that D10 becomes D9.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Environment there is screaming for tornadoes.  Will only get worse too later this evening...starting to see 500mb winds strengthen near the base of the trough...should continue over the next several hours 

 

The event will likely be over-stated in the end.  ..by a little.  There'll be few twisters and some may even do some damage that's notable, but in the end, these wound up large -scaled gyres become too uni-directional with wind shear. Squallines, bow segmental macro-bursting, hail, and straight line wind damage, with comparatively briefer tornadic spin-ups are favored.  But a threat is a threat is a threat, and it doesn't have to be 3000' high stove piped EF4 long tracked super-cells to be a just such a threat...

 

Another way to look at it is in total vorticity budget.  When you have a strong llv jet from the S/SSE, and 700mb winds from the W associated also with a mid level wind acceleration with an approaching open trough, that is "unrealized" potential vorticity, that then gets expended in larger outbreaks with larger tornadoes.  If you go back and look at all the median and above median -sized twister outbreaks of yore (in numbers and intensity of individual tornadoes), the balance of them occurred in open synoptic -scaled waves, with deep layer mechanical shearing provided by both increases with velocity in height, and also directional 0-6km depths. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Posted

The event will likely be over-stated in the end. ..by a little. There'll be few twisters and some may even do some damage that's notable, but in the end, these wound up large -scaled gyres become too uni-directional with wind shear. Squallines, bow segmental macro-bursting, hail, and straight line wind damage, with comparatively briefer tornadic spin-ups are favored. But a threat is a threat is a threat, and it doesn't have to be 3000' high stove piped EF4 long tracked super-cells to be a just such a threat...

Another way to look at it is in total vorticity budget. When you have a strong llv jet from the S/SSE, and 700mb winds from the W associated also with a mid level wind acceleration with an approaching open trough, that is "unrealized" potential vorticity, that then gets expended in larger outbreaks with larger tornadoes. If you go back and look at all the median and above median -sized twister outbreaks of yore (in numbers and intensity of individual tornadoes), the balance of them occurred in open synoptic -scaled waves, with deep layer mechanical shearing provided by both increases with velocity in height, and also directional 0-6km depths.

Also with this event the highest threat area for significant tornadoes wasn't as large as with some of the past threats...AR area was the area in which models hinted at for area with the best parameters...

But I agree...for the entire threat area today definitely more in the way indicating linear vs discrete

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

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He was in a stupid spot. Not sure why he was chasing that thing from the north. 

Sort of extremely stupid like taking a high rated vacuum cleaner and using its hose over the eye and turning the vacuum and section valve on.  Eyeball goes inside the vacuum cleaner.  Same idea chasing a twister in the wrong spot.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Posted

Well better than it looked, so we'll take anything. Looks like western/ central areas tickle 70 Thursday with west wind

 

Depends. Front is overhead..could be cloudy. Even the weekend has question marks...Just a BS type pattern as the warmth builds south and we are north of a warm front heading through May. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Happened to be at target in easton yesterday, if anyone familiar with that area. Its about 15 minutes from my house, but I distinctly noticed the trees in the area were further along than at my house. It was quite odd actually.

Quick glance outside this morning will lead you to believe an awesome day is on tap

 

Might depend on the species too. If you live with a bunch of those horrible Norwegian maples, you'd think it was mid May. If you live near hardwood type maples and oaks...it's not to summery looking. Kind of like the fall. Swamp and sugar maples turn early while oaks turn later.

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