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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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buy an Android, you will thank me later

 

LOL, it's the new app...I'll figure it out. You actually helped me with the old one.

 

Anyways, COC forecasts fail from Thursday. All I heard was for scattered showers Saturday and clearing Sunday with the slight chance of a sprinkle. What a fail....it's not like it was rocket science to see that, especially yesterday.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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LOL, it's the new app...I'll figure it out. You actually helped me with the old one.

Anyways, COC forecasts fail from Thursday. All I heard was for scattered showers Saturday and clearing Sunday with the slight chance of a sprinkle. What a fail....it's not like it was rocket science to see that, especially yesterday.

yea as much as fail as the +1 to +2 month someone was touting as early as last week.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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yea as much as fail as the +1 to +2 month someone was touting as early as last week.

 

Yep, at least 3/4 of the big climo stations should go below normal I think. BOS is close...but this maritime airmass really only does a number on high temps, so negative daily departures in this case are usually due to high temps and tempered a bit.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Yep, at least 3/4 of the big climo stations should go below normal I think. BOS is close...but this maritime airmass really only does a number on high temps, so negative daily departures in this case are usually due to high temps and tempered a bit.

 

It's true.  And, part of one's surprise when finding conditions averaging out above, or below, is in part implanted memories for not being outside at night.  A Maritime plague might tend one to think it's been dramatically colder than normal; come to find that those nightly lows being no lower than 3F off the afternoon high, taints the average.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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It's true.  And, part of one's surprise when finding conditions averaging out above, or below, is in part implanted memories for not being outside at night.  A Maritime plague might tend one to think it's been dramatically colder than normal; come to find that those nightly lows being no lower than 3F off the afternoon high, taints the average.  

 

Of course people really only care about the daytime effects since most of the population is asleep at night.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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New England has been affected by several pattern orientations since mid winter, all resulting cold. It's like a deeper, sort of secondary differential observation regarding the nature of events, but in simple terms, cold has been delivered a multitude of different ways and is thus an emergent "lucky" result more than a singular persistent drive.  

 

We've seen -EPO dominance, relayed into +PNA dominance, then relayed (recently) into -NAO, all of which can and did provide cool biased looking patterns, and to somewhat successful degree in the thermometer houses, too. But I only say "somewhat", because in a one particular respect it simply isn't true.  Here is the ORH list of various climate data, so far for this current April, as taken off of KTAN's NWS climate data:

 DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================
 1  54  29  42   2  23   0 0.00  0.0    M  7.7 15  20   M    M   1        21  30
 2  55  33  44   3  21   0 0.00  0.0    M  8.4 16 290   M    M   0        21 280
 3  53  32  43   2  22   0 0.00  0.0    M  9.0 17 300   M    M   0        22 290
 4  46  33  40  -2  25   0 0.13  0.0    M  7.3 16 120   M    M   8 1      23 130
 5  46  31  39  -3  26   0 0.18  0.0    M 13.6 30 290   M    M   8 12     40 280
 6  54  29  42   0  23   0 0.00  0.0    M  9.4 17 290   M    M   0        23 290
 7  56  38  47   4  18   0 0.07  0.0    M  8.4 18 160   M    M   4 12     22 200
 8  61  39  50   7  15   0 0.39  0.0    M 14.2 30 290   M    M   7 12     41 260
 9  54  32  43  -1  22   0 0.00  0.0    M 12.6 25 290   M    M   1        34 300
10  58  30  44   0  21   0    T  0.0    M 15.5 26 230   M    M   0        35 240
11  65  44  55  11  10   0 0.06  0.0    M 10.4 20 210   M    M   7        25 210
12  65  41  53   8  12   0 0.04  0.0    M 10.6 20 250   M    M   1 1      26 260
13  68  43  56  11   9   0 0.06  0.0    M 11.6 22 220   M    M   4 1      29 230
14  71  57  64  18   1   0 0.00  0.0    M 21.7 35 220   M    M   2        48 200
15  60  33  47   1  18   0 1.16  0.0    M 20.3 37 190   M    M  10 1      49 200
16  39  25  32 -14  33   0 0.26  0.6    M 13.6 26 310   M    M   2 16     35 300
17  42  24  33 -14  32   0 0.00  0.0    M  9.1 15  70   M    M   0        22  60
18  44  26  35 -12  30   0 0.00  0.0    M  6.1 13  40   M    M   3        17  30
19  58  33  46  -2  19   0 0.00  0.0    M 11.4 23 340   M    M   0        32 350
20  55  36  46  -2  19   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 14 190   M    M   0        19 100
21  68  34  51   3  14   0 0.00  0.0    M 11.2 18 250   M    M   0        23 250
22  71  46  59  10   6   0 0.01  0.0    M 12.8 21 210   M    M   3        28 220
23  51  41  46  -3  19   0 0.28  0.0    M 14.6 26 340   M    M   9 1      37 310
24  54  37  46  -3  19   0 0.00  0.0    M 20.0 37 310   M    M   0        48 320
25  62  36  49  -1  16   0 0.00  0.0    M  8.2 16 310   M    M   2        23 320
26  46  39  43  -7  22   0 0.58  0.0    M  4.3 10 180   M    M   9 12     12 130 

What is interesting to me is that despite the cold tapestry of dominating teleconnectors leading into and throughout the month, the number of positive depature days outnumbers those of negative ...not by much but still two days. 14 vs 12 respectively.  Moreover, summing the magnitudes and dividing by n-terms yields ~ +.7  (this arithmetic was done quite quickly by eye and mind and is not intended to be exact, just used to illustrate a point).

 

I have noticed this over the last 20 years.  Cool characteristic patterns under perform compared to warm one's of equal apparent magnitude.  I am wondering if this, and other amid of myriad of examples, are part in partial [most likely] to the 30-year observed warming climate.  Noting that places around the latitude and longitude of Chicago over the conus, observed the coldest January, ever!  Meanwhile, the Earth as a whole, observed the 4th warmest January. These, of course, meaning since the the evolution of science and monitoring.  

 

It is a tendency to live inside the proverbial box, and not be so aware [perhaps] that the real characteristic of a system is defined by a much larger realm. I've been bitching and complaining in my usual inimitable way regarding both the expectation, and what was perceived to have verified of April, this year and most of yore.  Then come to find upon the objective observation of what has been clocked? Wrong.  Totally normal.  Probably, these (+) or (-) meaningless garbage decimal point departures currently scattered around the area will end up telling a story about a "cold" April that truly wasn't that cold at all.  

 

Perception, sensible weather, and veracious climate science .. tsk tsk tsk, how they do part company.

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