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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild


Damage In Tolland

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Trees I think are behind...don't even see many trees with at least buds

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03803.x/pdf

 

Great research on leaf out dates for sne

the average onset of leaf-out in (a) southeastern New
England (USA) from Landsat (1984–2002); and ( B) a portion of the
northeastern USA using MODIS (2000–2005). These images
demonstrate that leaf-out occurs later at higher elevations, such as
the Adirondacks and White Mountains, at higher latitudes. On Cape
Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket (islands off the coast of
Cape Cod), late leafing-out is generally the result of the moderating
influence of the ocean, with particularly late patches occurring as a
result of scrub-oak frost pockets. Trees in Boston, New York, and
other metropolitan areas leaf-out earlier because of the higher
temperatures associated with the urban heat island effect; earlier
leaf-out is also seen in warm river valleys. Colors indicate the date
on which half of the tree canopy has leafed-out (from day 110 (April
20) to day 165 (June 15)), with earlier onset shown by blue and later
onset by orange and red (figure reprinted from Fisher & Mustard,
2007, with the permission of Elsevi
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The trees aren't way behind. Climatologically, a lot happens between now and May 10.

 

Right -- they were in fact early the last 5 years ... even in 2009, but since 2007 we've been averaging early Springs, and it took a toll and started getting foliage lubed up ahead of norms... 

 

I remember many a year seeing only half leafed out trees on May 5th, and then fully by the 15th.... 

 

Also, folks -- 18z NAM has heavy wet snow for the interior elevations between noon and 6 pm or so... just going by the FRH grid.

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Right -- they were in fact early the last 5 years ... even in 2009, but since 2007 we've been averaging early Springs, and it took a toll and started getting foliage lubed up ahead of norms... 

 

I remember many a year seeing only half leafed out trees on May 5th, and then fully by the 15th.... 

 

Also, folks -- 18z NAM has heavy wet snow for the interior elevations between noon and 6 pm or so... just going by the FRH grid.

 

Yeah exactly, we've had some warm springs as of late fooling people.

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03803.x/pdf

Great research on leaf out dates for sne

the average onset of leaf-out in (a) southeastern New

England (USA) from Landsat (1984–2002); and ( B) a portion of the

northeastern USA using MODIS (2000–2005). These images

demonstrate that leaf-out occurs later at higher elevations, such as

the Adirondacks and White Mountains, at higher latitudes. On Cape

Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket (islands off the coast of

Cape Cod), late leafing-out is generally the result of the moderating

influence of the ocean, with particularly late patches occurring as a

result of scrub-oak frost pockets. Trees in Boston, New York, and

other metropolitan areas leaf-out earlier because of the higher

temperatures associated with the urban heat island effect; earlier

leaf-out is also seen in warm river valleys. Colors indicate the date

on which half of the tree canopy has leafed-out (from day 110 (April

20) to day 165 (June 15)), with earlier onset shown by blue and later

onset by orange and red (figure reprinted from Fisher & Mustard,

2007, with the permission of Elsevi

Interesting!

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I'm surprised you snow nuts are cracking your shells over this NAM 24 to 30 hour picture.  800' els should be snowing 'chutes tomorrow afternoon, with cat paws and noodles possible down even lower.   

 

The 900mb NAM temperatures are right at 0C, and that is under 0 to -2C at 800, all capped over 2-meters T's in the falling into the 30s with nearly an inch of QPF is real dicey... 

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I'm surprised you snow nuts are cracking your shells over this NAM 24 to 30 hour picture.  800' els should be snowing 'chutes tomorrow afternoon, with cat paws and noodles possible down even lower.   

 

The 900mb NAM temperatures are right at 0C, and that is under 0 to -2C at 800, all capped over 2-meters T's in the falling into the 30s with nearly an inch of QPF is real dicey... 

Tomorrow afternoon the sun should break out in most areas..Tomorrow night into early Sunday is when it will snow

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Where in Quebec? LOL, not in SNE. Sorry you live in a pit.

I could never live in an area like that. I've been lucky to grow up in an area where everything I need is within walking distance. Hell...right now I live right next to a gas station with a Dunkin donuts, right across the street from a package store, across from two pizza joints and NcDonalds is only a 16 minute walk and I live right on a bus route which takes me to school and I only live a 5 min walk to my moms

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I could never live in an area like that. I've been lucky to grow up in an area where everything I need is within walking distance. Hell...right now I live right next to a gas station with a Dunkin donuts, right across the street from a package store, across from two pizza joints and NcDonalds is only a 16 minute walk and I live right on a bus route which takes me to school and I only live a 5 min walk to my moms

Wiz, with those choices you won't have to worry all that long...lol

Kevin thinks Tolland is akin to Boulder.

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Wiz, with those choices you won't have to worry all that long...lol

Kevin thinks Tolland is akin to Boulder.

lol!

I'm actually beginning a regime soon of much healthier eating...have to do it, especially with the history of heart disease in my family...both sides of my family are plagued with it.

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I'm surprised you snow nuts are cracking your shells over this NAM 24 to 30 hour picture.  800' els should be snowing 'chutes tomorrow afternoon, with cat paws and noodles possible down even lower.   

 

The 900mb NAM temperatures are right at 0C, and that is under 0 to -2C at 800, all capped over 2-meters T's in the falling into the 30s with nearly an inch of QPF is real dicey... 

Tip,   I don't get it either.  Living at 1100 feet in Central NH I would think I would see some snow.  Nothing much  in the Grey Maine discussion.  I could see a few inches in the higher elevations in my area.  I think this could sneak up on us up here if we get enough QPF to bring down the colder air above

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I'm surprised you snow nuts are cracking your shells over this NAM 24 to 30 hour picture.  800' els should be snowing 'chutes tomorrow afternoon, with cat paws and noodles possible down even lower.   

 

The 900mb NAM temperatures are right at 0C, and that is under 0 to -2C at 800, all capped over 2-meters T's in the falling into the 30s with nearly an inch of QPF is real dicey... 

Nam is more enthusiastic in terms of low lvl cold than the GFS when comparing the 18z run. Although the GFS does have more lift / precip probably due to minor differences in the track / orientation of the s/w passing through Sat night. Even the Euro looks good for some flakes to fly in the ORH hills / sw NH. 

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a localized area that receives an inch or two, especially sw NH with elevation. 

 

Here are some soundings for BED:

 

 

post-144-0-21058700-1398465961_thumb.png

 

post-144-0-20097500-1398465991_thumb.png

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Euro was a bit too warm in the aftn tomorrow. It has a weenie pocket of 925 temps just below 0C as well as 850 temps just below over ern areas where precip was heaviest. Probably argues for catpaws and maybe some parachutes in the higher elevations in the ORH hills areas.

 

It's tomorrow night as the second s/w move through and precip blossoms that we have a greater risk of some snow. That's a decent burst as modeled and you are going to need quite the lift and dynamics if you want some paste. I think the euro would do it. GFS too, but they differ where.

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03803.x/pdf

Great research on leaf out dates for sne

the average onset of leaf-out in (a) southeastern New

England (USA) from Landsat (1984–2002); and ( B) a portion of the

northeastern USA using MODIS (2000–2005). These images

demonstrate that leaf-out occurs later at higher elevations, such as

the Adirondacks and White Mountains, at higher latitudes. On Cape

Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket (islands off the coast of

Cape Cod), late leafing-out is generally the result of the moderating

influence of the ocean, with particularly late patches occurring as a

result of scrub-oak frost pockets. Trees in Boston, New York, and

other metropolitan areas leaf-out earlier because of the higher

temperatures associated with the urban heat island effect; earlier

leaf-out is also seen in warm river valleys. Colors indicate the date

on which half of the tree canopy has leafed-out (from day 110 (April

20) to day 165 (June 15)), with earlier onset shown by blue and later

onset by orange and red (figure reprinted from Fisher & Mustard,

2007, with the permission of Elsevi

What's up with Manhatten

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