CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 It literally is tied to whatever happens with the second s/w Saturday night. If that dumbells well south of us, it's 38F drizzle and light rain. If it comes a bit closer like the GFS has...could be a different story. That said, it does appear higher elevations in NNE tomorrow will see snow. Euro has weenie contours near 35F in the aftn. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Wouldn't be the first. Yeah, I know. But it's rare (at least from what I recall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Yeah, I know. But it's rare (at least from what I recall). Yes it is for sure, although slushy coatings in nrn ORH and SW NH aren't extremely rare...but certainly not common this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Yes it is for sure, although slushy coatings in nrn ORH and SW NH aren't extremely rare...but certainly not common this time of year. Just seems that this could be the pattern to produce a few surprises. Would be cool to see something in early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Just seems that this could be the pattern to produce a few surprises. Would be cool to see something in early May. Man were we fooled earlier in the week when it looked like tomorrow could eek out ok. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 People love dogging analogs but look back 11 days ago, the 8-11 day analogs on the GFS super Ens all were pointing to this ugly period and a BN end of month. Remember when folks thought April would be warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Around 10 or 20 pages ago I recall penning an extended explanation as to why we should not hang up the possibility of seeing snow through the first week of May, so whether or not this intra-weekend, and/or Sunday night smack in the face happens or not, having the possibility on the table is quite understandable in my mind. It should not be of any surprise to anyone that has been paying attention. Nor of any consequence... But, snow prior to hoe is known as Farmer's Gold in agriculture. ... "Poor man's fertilizer", too. Basically, it's a late opportunity to fix a bit more nitrogen into the top soils for healthier roots when/if truer deep layer warmth and a growing season finally sets in. Before any such set in, ... and on-going/related to, the fantastically annoying pattern still appears pretty well keyed into a -NAO that seemed to be consciously timed by some great super-natural force, just for the sole intent of pissing people off and ruining spring spirit. Agreed! What results here is a big, giant, apex-of-unwanted polar high over eastern Canada, that is pinned in position by mid/upper level confluence that is unyielding for some days on end... That high parked N of Maine like that with it's sfc ridging in the lower level pp subtended clear down to the M/A spells NE doom all the way to ALB with ease. It may, however, actually be fair skied at first, (Mon-Tue) so that may take a good bit of the gloom off the edge of the ruin-spring-sword, but ... eventually we will have to deal with that massive tumbler or its remnants arriving from MV. The models have some varying ideas on that, ranging from the Euro, which sort of washes it out west of us, while said annoying f-you high just collapses, leaving us in a COL environment; one that eventually at last appears to evolve into a more deep springy look in the extended... That's probably the best hope model, for those looking to finally escape this life-supported cool season. It's like that comatose granny that won't die, even after they've unplugged the machines and discontinued her meds... Even when its warm, it... like fake warm, while she barely breaths in between 20 beat/min heart rate. We need some bona fide 80/55 weather, with lows at 50F for a week solid to really throw this season under the bus. As a more serious side, I am really curious why the hemispheric pattern et al is really targeting North America like this. It's been going on the whole time since the ides of last November really, when the -EPO started delivering its steady diet of -3SD to -5SD cold air masses to the upper MW and Lakes region, and it really hasn't stopped. Oh we've lost the EPO, but then it just relayed in time, right into a -NAO/low amplitude +PNA that simply won't allow it to really warm up ...ever, until it breaks down. I suppose -NAO intervals in spring are not that uncommon, .. in fact, my experience tells me they are common. What appears to happen, the winter pattern breaks down, and if there is/was, all along, some sort of underpinning -NAO present (merely muted by other dominating forces), then -NAO lurches to an opportunity of dominance on the pattern. But rest assured ... it too will eventually succumb to the weakening hemispheric geopotential gradient and seasonal wave-space reduction. I don't believe a -NAO in June means all that much as it does now. Anyway, ... today is sneaky gem though. Working from home ftw! Door will be ajar by early afternoon, with fake warmth and high sun angle to off-set the reality of a ball-biting belated seasonal change. I suppose it isn't all bad, because I was just noticing ... gee, I have to mow my lawn. We are at least greened-up under foot. There's also daisies and tulips lining some fences around town. By the way ... all bitching aside: ORH is still, according to the prelim climate page at NWS, +1 through yesterday. It will be interesting to see if the weekends assault normalizes to 0. I don't think next Monday and Tuesday will incur much numeral damage, and then of course it's April 30 and its all clocked anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 25, 2014 Author Share Posted April 25, 2014 If it's got to be cold this time of year and ruin outdoor activities and force us to use heat.. Let's get some snow out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Total totals 50+ Sunday Am that should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Must've been a sweet day in Caribou, ME... looks like snow fell all day long at 33-34F, accumulating 3.3" on 0.7" QPF. That must be some wet heavy snow, but awesome they can do almost 3/4" of QPF in a snow column during the daylight hours in late April. Frenchville reported 5" and Perham (just west of CAR) 5.5" - probably north slope near the top of a hill, but still kind of cool. Of course, a co-worker who lives at about 1,100' elev in Frenchville had nearly a foot on Mothers' Day 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Total totals 50+ Sunday Am that should be fun I was noticing the instability too -- Reminds me of a particular day in late April, when I was young living in western Michigan. There was a cool snap, with chill advecting across Lake Michigan, with lake effect graupel showers that had some snow at dawn. But, by 3 and 4pm, those sun's unrelenting diabatic flogging of the atmosphere, added enough SB CAPE to get scatter thunderstorms with low-top anvils. ...right around 53F. It's interesting how a single day can have a transitory micro-climate like that during the larger scaled transitional season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 BSU? I actually heard about that if so. Last weeks winds probably set the stage. Yup, apparently word spread lol. I agree. Very impressive though. Just looking at the tree it must be like 5 feet wide. They built the sidewalk around it lol. Fell right on the building next too it. All things considered the damage didn't look all too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 If it's got to be cold this time of year and ruin outdoor activities and force us to use heat.. Let's get some snow out of this I'm not sure why all the gloom and doom....you go jogging no matter what the weather is so I don't know how some cooler weather and a couple of cloudy/showery days can ruin outdoor activities. We get 45" of rain a year so rainy days are to be expected. Besides, I think we'll actually have some nice weather days next week. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday don't look to be that bad for a start. We might end that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Frenchville reported 5" and Perham (just west of CAR) 5.5" - probably north slope near the top of a hill, but still kind of cool. Of course, a co-worker who lives at about 1,100' elev in Frenchville had nearly a foot on Mothers' Day 1996. My favorite late season event has to be the April 27-28 birch bender in 2010...that was a crazy late-season event which put down 6" at BTV, but just away from the lake and into the mountains a widespread 8-24" fell. I was living at only 350ft and ended up with a foot, while just up the road over 700ft they got 20"+. Everything was green and out at that point in late-April due to the warm spring/winter...and then we just got crushed. I'm not sure I'll ever see again residential areas buried in 1-2 feet while everything is full green-up: A true birch bender. We had snow still on the ground on May 1st after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Can't be any worse than last spring/early summer...record wet May, June, July period and there was a period up here where it rained 22 straight days and 50 out of 60 days. Definitely do NOT want a repeat of the first half of last summer. I like a good shot of rain now & again in the summer to keep the well full but that was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 2010 was the earliest leaf-out I've seen since moving to Maine in 1973. We got 40F RA from your birch bender, but the 22/26/25 series of mornings two weeks later torched the new growth on all ash and oak, plus some of the maples and all the flower buds on my apple trees. Thoroughly unpleasant codocil to a thoroughly unpleasant "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 30040956230 01009 050420 45040100 = worst sensible weather day in the history complaints, ever! That's 2pm tomorrow at Logan, but I can't imagine conditions inspiring much other than abject misery everywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Next Saturday is now looking crappy again on the Euro region wide after a brief reprieve on Friday when activity looks more scattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 25, 2014 Author Share Posted April 25, 2014 Euro's got it again. Man Early Sunday morn is gonna a sight for white eyes @BigJoeBastardi: Weekend in New England? Not as warm as @AccuRayno favorite artist song Cold rain, even snow all the way into southern New england @BigJoeBastardi: Was in RI last week. Trees way behind. Even if this sticks, not likely to have same result as May 1977 debacle in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The trees aren't way behind. Climatologically, a lot happens between now and May 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The trees aren't way behind. Climatologically, a lot happens between now and May 10. Phenology is probably about a week behind the avg here, and IMO anything +/- a week or less is "normal". Unlike 2010 when by now the forsythia was already going by (flowers haven't broken bud yet this year) and things were 2-3 weeks ahead of avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Phenology is probably about a week behind the avg here, and IMO anything +/- a week or less is "normal". Unlike 2010 when by now the forsythia was already going by (flowers haven't broken bud yet this year) and things were 2-3 weeks ahead of avg. It may be a few days behind at worst, but the mild start to April here helped. Forsythia are variable I noticed, but overall came out over a week ago give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Euro's got it again. Man Early Sunday morn is gonna a sight for white eyes @BigJoeBastardi: Weekend in New England? Not as warm as @AccuRayno favorite artist song Cold rain, even snow all the way into southern New england @BigJoeBastardi: Was in RI last week. Trees way behind. Even if this sticks, not likely to have same result as May 1977 debacle in New England JB hasn't hit anything in months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 I would argue trees indeed are behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 2010 was the earliest leaf-out I've seen since moving to Maine in 1973. We got 40F RA from your birch bender, but the 22/26/25 series of mornings two weeks later torched the new growth on all ash and oak, plus some of the maples and all the flower buds on my apple trees. Thoroughly unpleasant codocil to a thoroughly unpleasant "winter". Yeah just re-looking at the pics from that late April snowstorm in 2010, we are no where close to that. The leaves were out at that point in the inhabited elevations....this year I can't even find buds. It's full on stick season still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 25, 2014 Author Share Posted April 25, 2014 I would argue trees indeed are behind.They are about 10-14 days behind here. The only thing I've seen with any new leaves are the lilacs and they are tiny. The forsythia aren't fully bloomed out yet. The valley things are well ahead of here.. With some maples, birch and ash with leaves coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 FWIW, the NAM, destroys NE Mass with heavy precip and cold 850's. I know there's not enough confluence from up north, but looking how cold it shows the 850's to be, along with intensity of the precip, you just gotta wonder if .... Sent from my VS980 4G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Trees about a week behind to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 we're a good 1-2 weeks behind...forsythia in full bloom right now and pear trees just starting to flower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 we're a good 1-2 weeks behind...forsythia in full bloom right now and pear trees just starting to flower. Absolutely nothing in bloom in my area not even forsythia. Looking at the 18Z NAM sure looks like some snow for me in Central NH. Im at 1100 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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