weathafella Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Pretty odd not to have an 80 degree day in April at any of the big 4. Usually we make a run at least one day. Still it's been a nice mild to warm month everywhere which is good. The worst month of the year not performing that way. Hopefully we don't pay for it in May when we want true summer to hit I think the climo max doesn't hit 70 until the second half of May. Sweltering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Complete Phail of all those warm wx forecasts for the Plains and Midwest at the end of this month. Definitely cooler than I thought as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Probably one of the biggest 4-5 day changes I've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Granted I missed 2 weeks of April being abroad but it seems like a typical spring to me. Can we be entering a period of normalcy after a long stretch of warmth followed by a long stretch of cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Pretty odd not to have an 80 degree day in April at any of the big 4. Usually we make a run at least one day. Still it's been a nice mild to warm month everywhere which is good. The worst month of the year not performing that way. Hopefully we don't pay for it in May when we want true summer to hit Agreed. April has not been too bad (temp wise) considering the March we came out of. We've been throug much worse before. The temps lately have been decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Gorgeous morning on the cove. 41.9°F From our wxcam. Calm and flat, just after high tide: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Through 4/20: BOS: +1.3 BDL: +0.8 PVD: +.0.8 ORH: +.0.6 Yesterday and today should add some. I'm thinking unless it gets colder than it looks we'll squeak through April above normal. Boston has a lower bar for highs and average in Spring versus inland locations hence the differential, yesterday was BN at BDL PVD with PVD a solid -4 ,appears to me based on forecasts the other 3 SNE locations may finish slightly below normal keeping the BN streak alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Probably one of the biggest 4-5 day changes I've seen in a long time. The biggest changes since..... since it happened 4 other times this winter lol... I wish this would just end already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 The biggest changes since..... since it happened 4 other times this winter lol... I wish this would just end already! Even this winter...well I wasn't looking at it daily like you were, but deep reds replaced with deep blues..lol. Get rid of the SW US trough and perhaps slow it down a bit with the ridging in the Davis straits and Hudson Bay and boom. That's what you get. Pretty crazy changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Boston has a lower bar for highs and average in Spring versus inland locations hence the differential, yesterday was BN at BDL PVD with PVD a solid -4 ,appears to me based on forecasts the other 3 SNE locations may finish slightly below normal keeping the BN streak alive.Pretty good chance to finish BN up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Even this winter...well I wasn't looking at it daily like you were, but deep reds replaced with deep blues..lol. Get rid of the SW US trough and perhaps slow it down a bit with the ridging in the Davis straits and Hudson Bay and boom. That's what you get. Pretty crazy changes. Yeah you may be right in that sense, with the deep reds trending to deep blues like were seeing over the plains here for next week...but in terms of just a magnitude of trend, the end march/early apr outbreak, end feb/early mar outbreak, and end jan/early feb outbreak all saw some ridiculous cold trends on guidance within a span of like 1-3 model cycles... Some of those were easier to see coming than others and that aspect also has to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 More snow for NE MN and WI this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Yeah you may be right in that sense, with the deep reds trending to deep blues like were seeing over the plains here for next week...but in terms of just a magnitude of trend, the end march/early apr outbreak, end feb/early mar outbreak, and end jan/early feb outbreak all saw some ridiculous cold trends on guidance within a span of like 1-3 model cycles... Some of those were easier to see coming than others and that aspect also has to be considered. Yeah I was just referencing the 11-15 srfc T anomalies vs the 6-10 day srfc T anomalies centered on 4/29 on the EC ensembles. I know those other time periods had some astounding changes. I haven't looked at the medium range in depth for awhile until today and I was surprised, since it seemed like many were torching the Plains. But ridging in the west and up into Canada....I'm a little nervous for any prolonged nice stretches here through early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Pretty good chance to finish BN up here too. The "big 4" in GYX/CAR (CON,PWM,BGR,CAR) are all BN thru 4/21, though only by about 0.3 to 0.7F. Yesterday's 64/31 tied my warmest for the year so far, exactly duplicating last Monday's high/low. Heard wood frog "quacks" last evening for the first time this spring. Peepers next week? Phenology running a week or so behind the avg. I don't have the stats, but would guess that anything within a week of avg counts as "normal" - within one SD. The 3-week advance (until brutally halted by low-mid 20s 2nd week May) we saw in 2010, not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 00z UKMET was interesting. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 May see some elevation snow from 30 to 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 GFS is a complete disaster this weekend. Congrats NNE..esp higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Yeah I was just referencing the 11-15 srfc T anomalies vs the 6-10 day srfc T anomalies centered on 4/29 on the EC ensembles. I know those other time periods had some astounding changes. I haven't looked at the medium range in depth for awhile until today and I was surprised, since it seemed like many were torching the Plains. But ridging in the west and up into Canada....I'm a little nervous for any prolonged nice stretches here through early May. No doubt about it... The phase 8 mjo risk was there later last week when the euro guidance showed the warm pattern (it was weakening into the circle). The GFS was the first to pick up on this trend late last week and it had the propagation into phase 8 territory. Perhaps the cooler GFS solution made the most sense (in hindsight of course) when diagnosing things such as the warm pool location, what weve seen happen this season, etc... The -NAO response is certainly helped out by the tropical state combined with the fact we finally dont have the strat PV sitting on top of Hudson Bay/Greenland (FW happening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 No doubt about it... The phase 8 mjo risk was there later last week when the euro guidance showed the warm pattern (it was weakening into the circle). The GFS was the first to pick up on this trend late last week and it had the propagation into phase 8 territory. Perhaps the cooler GFS solution made the most sense (in hindsight of course) when diagnosing things such as the warm pool location, what weve seen happen this season, etc... The -NAO response is certainly helped out by the tropical state combined with the fact we finally dont have the strat PV sitting on top of Hudson Bay/Greenland (FW happening). No doubt about it... The phase 8 mjo risk was there later last week when the euro guidance showed the warm pattern (it was weakening into the circle). The GFS was the first to pick up on this trend late last week and it had the propagation into phase 8 territory. Perhaps the cooler GFS solution made the most sense (in hindsight of course) when diagnosing things such as the warm pool location, what weve seen happen this season, etc... The -NAO response is certainly helped out by the tropical state combined with the fact we finally dont have the strat PV sitting on top of Hudson Bay/Greenland (FW happening). Yep, agree. Figures the -NAO finally shows up now..lol..but it does get facilitated by the final warming in the stratosphere. Well I suppose some interesting times ahead regarding the development of our friend, El Nino. May and June can be a real drag here during the onset of Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Lot of firsts this recent winter. Earliest snowmanable snow I can remember down here, and the latest. Last weeks little snow event was really cool. We actually had snow on the roof until after 3pm on a sunny mid april day. Just nuts. Enjoy summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 GFS is a complete disaster this weekend. Congrats NNE..esp higher elevations. Nice over-night timing, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Lot of firsts this recent winter. Earliest snowmanable snow I can remember down here, and the latest. Last weeks little snow event was really cool. We actually had snow on the roof until after 3pm on a sunny mid april day. Just nuts. Enjoy summer. 11/10 and 4/16 for first and last snow dates I believe down by you. That's dam good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 May see some elevation snow from 30 to 36 hrsNice.. We'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Yep, agree. Figures the -NAO finally shows up now..lol..but it does get facilitated by the final warming in the stratosphere. Well I suppose some interesting times ahead regarding the development of our friend, El Nino. May and June can be a real drag here during the onset of Nino. Yup and it hasnt been an easy process to figure out up to this point. I thought we were going through the FW/-NAO phase in early April but that ended up crapping the bed as we got closer...and it wasnt the true FW yet... This time its a go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 CoastalWX, can you please give me your thoughts as on right now on Saturday? I am having a birthday party for my 1 & 4 year old and have about 75 people coming. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 CoastalWX, can you please give me your thoughts as on right now on Saturday? I am having a birthday party for my 1 & 4 year old and have about 75 people coming. Thanks Probably will have a bit of a better idea in about two hours when the euro stuff comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Probably will have a bit of a better idea in about two hours when the euro stuff comes out. I'm intrigued as well...supposed to be doing something with my girlfriend and something with her family or something...I hope it poors and it gets cancelled b/c the Bruins play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is more progressive than the 12z GFS and gets most of the wet weather out of the way by early Saturday. A few showers for eastern sections before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Euro is much better for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22, 2014 Author Share Posted April 22, 2014 Nice mild weekend enroute to ensure AN at big 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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