CT Rain Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 70s at BDL on Wednesday might be a bit of a reach on the 12z Euro. lol - even the GFS has some rain on Wednesday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 One of these weeks Tip and Kev will get their 70, I mean it is April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 I new you guys were going to do this... If you don't think it will hit 70 on Wednesday, make scientific reasons; don't just say highly unlikely. I originally did, post scientific reasons why that is plausible -- though admittedly less than certain. +4 at 850 in a COL atmosphere under full sun post April 1 easily will get a temperature of 65-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Euro ensembles have both storms, but looks like it's a bit too warm aloft. Good high too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Yep, true Randy. I'm not sure why this gets forgotten by some, but there tends to be a gravitation to the wx in people's backyards which then drives incorrect statements like DIT and from Whiteminster. Basically, we look at the hemispheric pattern and features that are placed in favorable climo spots for snow in SNE Small scale features and nuances in the flow that can cause heavy snow to miss by 50-100 miles simply cannot be determined 1-2 weeks out. Likewise a pattern may look unfavorable 1-2 weeks out, but a stubborn 1040 high north of Maine turns a 1-3" event into 4-8". A bust in the positive. Dec 2007 and 2008 features many of these. You just can't get cute with details that far out in time so we word things like "favorable"...but you also notice we are careful with the wording. We as mets are well versed in how things can go downhill or uphill in a matter of 48hrs or so. Yeah, I'm sure it gets REALLY tricky when having to issue a forecast to some group that's depending on it, and the uncertainty is often there. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Euro ensembles have both storms, but looks like it's a bit too warm aloft. Good high too. Yeah, I spoke about this at length in that post that other focused entirely on the warmth part out of fear ... There is a Archembault signal between the 5th and 10th of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 That's crazy.... looks about right though given what we've seen this month. I'm up to 75" this month at the 3,000ft snow board and temps are running like -8 to -12 compared to normal around here. Best winter month of the season for cold and snow came in March, go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 That's crazy.... looks about right though given what we've seen this month. I'm up to 75" this month at the 3,000ft snow board and temps are running like -8 to -12 compared to normal around here. Best winter month of the season for cold and snow came in March, go figure.Doesnt feel or taste quite the same or as good as it would if it was Dec or Jan. By Morch you know winters days are numbered. At least you guys got it, but I don't think there's anyone would choose to have it happen in Morch instead of a deep winter month when you still have 2-3 to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Yeah, I spoke about this at length in that post that other focused entirely on the warmth part out of fear ... There is a Archembault signal between the 5th and 10th of April. Definitely a nice signal for a coastal, but I'm not sure if temps aloft cooperate enough. The April 5th deal might be something CNE and NNE should watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Definitely a nice signal for a coastal, but I'm not sure if temps aloft cooperate enough. The April 5th deal might be something CNE and NNE should watch for. Oh yeah, exactly ... April snow storms are usually requiring a pretty goodly sized cold pocket near-by to tap into... Seeing as the season on whole has been colder than normal much of the time, at times ... with some extremeness, I think that's a good canvas to start (for those that actually WANT a snow storm at this point ) For pure entertainment only: The 18Z GFS is coming in pretty amazing looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Oh yeah, exactly ... April snow storms are usually requiring a pretty goodly sized cold pocket near-by to tap into... Seeing as the season on whole has been colder than normal much of the time, at times ... with some extremeness, I think that's a good canvas to start (for those that actually WANT a snow storm at this point ) For pure entertainment only: The 18Z GFS is coming in pretty amazing looking I would have no problem with a nice April blue bomb. Rare paste bombs like those are hard to come by and always add a nice finish to winter. I still would keep an eye out for the 5th and 10th. That's a real nice signal on all models and yes temps aloft may be up in the air...but the New England region is probably game for one of those anyways. At the very least NNE may get a snowstorm out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I would have no problem with a nice April blue bomb. Rare paste bombs like those are hard to come by and always add a nice finish to winter. I still would keep an eye out for the 5th and 10th. That's a real nice signal on all models and yes temps aloft may be up in the air...but the New England region is probably game for one of those anyways. At the very least NNE may get a snowstorm out of it. This is kind of an unexpectedly funny thread. Anyhow, I'd take another event too. These late season snows don't hang around long anyways. If it's going to be crappy and rainy it may as well snow instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 This is kind of an unexpectedly funny thread. Anyhow, I'd take another event too. These late season snows don't hang around long anyways. If it's going to be crappy and rainy it may as well snow instead. That's how I view it. Why not try for something interesting? 70 degree days are not walking through that door. Keep an eye out for later next week up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Doesnt feel or taste quite the same or as good as it would if it was Dec or Jan. By Morch you know winters days are numbered. At least you guys got it, but I don't think there's anyone would choose to have it happen in Morch instead of a deep winter month when you still have 2-3 to go With you on that. Cold, short days, with snow and ice on the ground, chestnuts roasting by the fire, with always another storm to track....winters the way mom used to make'em. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Yeah, I spoke about this at length in that post that other focused entirely on the warmth part out of fear ... There is a Archembault signal between the 5th and 10th of April. Tip, will this Archembault signal lead to a pattern change to cool to colder 30's for highs with more sunny dry conditions for awhile, followed by possible warmth 75-80 last ten days of the month ?? Just wondering. Tip, do you see a hot summer and severe taking over or is it out of luck, tough sh*t for both this year ? Appreciate your insights. Do you think only the interior, excluding the south coast has a chance for one last one ? No April 82 redux I guess ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Tip, will this Archembault signal lead to a pattern change to cool to colder 30's for highs with more sunny dry conditions for awhile, followed by possible warmth 75-80 last ten days of the month ?? Just wondering. Tip, do you see a hot summer and severe taking over or is it out of luck, tough sh*t for both this year ? Appreciate your insights. Do you think only the interior, excluding the south coast has a chance for one last one ? No April 82 redux I guess ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 Euro is interesting for the next 2 events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Euro is interesting for the next 2 events Verbatim, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Def a lot closer on the Euro last night to snow in those events for elevated SNE. Something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Hopefully one of these works out. It's been on guidance, but both lows sort of ride overhead on the euro. GFS has been more interesting all along...maybe things settle south a bit. Great HP spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 Def a lot closer on the Euro last night to snow in those events for elevated SNE. Something to watch Yup..as we mentioned. Euro is very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Yup..as we mentioned. Euro is very interesting It's warm aloft. Need that to go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I think the 2nd one would have a better chance for SNE....the first one is an Oxford County ME type storm...a bit of a CAD in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 It's warm aloft. Need that to go south. Next weekend looks obnoxious in that surface temps look ok but again like this last system its not very favorable up higher...maybe another sleet/rain mixer, even up here. The one following that looks better but that's 9-10 days out... still some decent wintery chances, especially northern half of New England (not like that's a shocker in April). You can see the climo in the ECMWF solutions to some degree because a lot of the 32F and 35F isotherms seem to halt their southward progression around the ORH-Berks and RT 2 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Next weekend looks obnoxious in that surface temps look ok but again like this last system its not very favorable up higher...maybe another sleet/rain mixer, even up here. The one following that looks better but that's 9-10 days out... still some decent wintery chances, especially northern half of New England (not like that's a shocker in April). You can see the climo in the ECMWF solutions to some degree because a lot of the 32F and 35F isotherms seem to halt their southward progression around the ORH-Berks and RT 2 area. I've been talking about the 5th and 10th for a few days now as has Will and others. The 5th may be more up north, but we'll have to watch the 10th as a strong s/w dives south. Still time, but to those like Kevin and others that are trying to give us reasoning how we'll just be screwed because that's what happened since late Feb....it's not a good way of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 -EPO is back with vengeance on the ensembles as well. Good luck warministas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 That storm on the 8-9 give or take, looks like a beast. You have a disturbance diving SE from the lakes and another over the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 That storm on the 8-9 give or take, looks like a beast. You have a disturbance diving SE from the lakes and another over the Gulf. 60" depths in Oxford County after the next two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 60" depths in Oxford County after the next two. Yeah...what a pattern for them. Like you said...maybe that second one offers a better chance here. I suppse nrn parts of SNE maybe have a chance on the 5th. We'll have to see how things trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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