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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Ha, you guys see the GGEM from 00z ?  

 

anyway, early next week was interesting in the Euro. It has very mild appeal for Monday, with +10C at 850mb, up to the Pike or perhaps Rt 2, in a light SW flow.  Meanwhile, it has [an over-produced] S/W about to careen SE out of the Lakes, and it does ... but any development in the lower troposphere is so weak, SNE ends up in a light wind, ...probably scattered ceiling, and still mild enough for a decent day. The S/W does it's typical Euro late middle range over zealously deepening act, but too far east to of us for Wednesday -- otherwise, that would be a wet snow after two balmy days type of deal next week.  

 

But, every model has it's own idea right now ... typical spring.   I'm hoping the NAM is right about Sunday, with that light return flow and decent sky coverage.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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not sure exactly who you refer to,I find the great majority here totally cognizant and understanding of how the atmosphere reacts to them and the implications on our sensible weather. My comments to have you check your beloved TCs was actually just a referral as it seemed you had taken verbatim OP runs without really looking at ens output.I certainly did not mean it in a negative connotation but your lecture to the forum regarding them was condescending

 

NO, it was not.... It was clearly directed at those that have 'made fun' of using tele's in the past. To those, they deserve it.  

 

Are you guilty?  You seem to want to persist in making some point that reduces what I said, and your wrong to make. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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The only one calling for cold and below normal now this month is you lol. Questioning if the month will be above when it's a lock to be at least + 1 at all 4. Talking about snows and cold end to month lol

I never said zip about snow, stop making stuff up. Indeed said we finish slightly below normal, yep. In actuality we have had 10 above normal days 7 below including a 45 degree rainy weekend that you predicted would be 70s and sunny.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The only one calling for cold and below normal now this month is you lol. Questioning if the month will be above when it's a lock to be at least + 1 at all 4. Talking about snows and cold end to month lol

 

Heh, it's just the typical smolder resistance to except the inevitability of seasonal change, rearing it's head by spinning impressions of patterns and data toward the coldest plausible characteristic, at least excuse imaginable.  It happens every year. Warm weather enthusiast succeed in belaying cold snaps in autumn in much the same ilk.  

 

To err is human.  At some point in the distant future, provided humanity survives this technological infancy (or any other wayward uncharted comet or asteroid that drops on by for an unannounced visit...), the human brain will have evolved to truly disconnect observation from motivation.  For now, ... we function in a very spicy world - ha

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I definitely did think April would start cooler. No doubt. More westerly flow will do that though. You can have below normal heights and AN temps with W-NW winds. Throw in some warm SW wind days and there it is. But, the last two days destroyed some of those big + departures. I did say last week that I was a little concerned about after mid month and I still am not enthused for nice weather after mid week next week. It would probably probably be fine if we can grab more NW winds, but I am not a fan of that 500mb look. Trust me, I want nice weather this time of year so there is no bias here.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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NO, it was not.... It was clearly directed at those that have 'made fun' of using tele's in the past. To those, they deserve it.

Are you guilty? You seem to want to persist in making some point that reduces what I said, and your wrong to make.

Says it all "I think if people understood Meteorology"
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Triple bunner right here. Every NAO signal this year has failed. Keep that in mind, This one already is fading in the 11-15.

 

And ... here we are again with a whopper coming out of both the CDC and the CPC, and just precisely such an exquisitely wrong perennial timing as to suggest an actual consciousness were at work and doing it as a personal assault to spring/summer weather enthusiast :wacko2: ...the last 10 days of the month of Assril.

 

Seriously, this teleconnector signal is very, very loud, loudest of the year.  It will be interesting to see how the chips fall.  The other possible saving grace is that with shortening wave-lengths, it's possible that any succeeding negative domain space might not have the same implications on the OV-MA-NE regions.  But that's dicey at best...  I think if memory serves, that 1977 may freak job snow bomb in the interior els was preceded by a goodly dip in he NAO.  I'll go check that out...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Almost has an Omega look  -

Sometimes enough of a push comes NE so that we get some nocturnal fun..even in late April/early May. May 2010 had some of this...I think it was the 12th or 14th..had some nickels with some good overnight tstms. I think Quincy had ping pong sized hail.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Sometimes enough of a push comes NE so that we get some nocturnal fun..even in late April/early May. May 2010 had some of this...I think it was the 12th or 14th..had some nickels with some good overnight tstms. I think Quincy had ping pong sized hail.

 

Yeah, you know I miss that.  Seems it's been a long while since we've had that kind of NW event set up, where you get finger lightning on the undersides of sprawling anvils.  

 

Actually, March of two years ago we had an elevated supercell rip down Rt 2 and both my friend in Fit and here in Ayer, we got inch diameter roar that covered the ground enough that the next morning there was still some of it left.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah, you know I miss that.  Seems it's been a long while since we've had that kind of NW event set up, where you get finger lightning on the undersides of sprawling anvils.  

 

Actually, March of two years ago we had an elevated supercell rip down Rt 2 and both my friend in Fit and here in Ayer, we got inch diameter roar that covered the ground enough that the next morning there was still some of it left.  

 

Yeah that was pretty crazy..I remember that. My co-worker was telling me about the summer of '87 I believe...I think it set some insane tstm day numbers for various climo stations in SNE. I guess one day in July, an ULL parked east of us and we were getting convection coming in from the NNE! Pretty crazy to think that, but it happened. I actually think I remember that summer. I would have been going into third grade and I remember thinking how we seem to be getting storms every other day..lol. Kind of one of those weird things that sticks in your head from when you were a kid.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah that was pretty crazy..I remember that. My co-worker was telling me about the summer of '87 I believe...I think it set some insane tstm day numbers for various climo stations in SNE. I guess one day in July, an ULL parked east of us and we were getting convection coming in from the NNE! Pretty crazy to think that, but it happened. I actually think I remember that summer. I would have been going into third grade and I remember thinking how we seem to be getting storms every other day..lol. Kind of one of those weird things that sticks in your head from when you were a kid.

 

Yup!   1987 lives on in my memories fondly.   I remember that ULL vividly... Didn't matter what time of the diurnal cycle, thunderstorms would develop and just back build in every direction.  It was really interesting.

 

I was laying in bed at like 11:45 at night, looking out at a summer sky that had just a tinge of butterscotch glow, and 'flint flint' boom! Yet another thunderstorm, but it developed like directly over head at night.  I didn't have access to rad like I do now, back then; it would have been interesting rad I'm sure, with lots and lots of bee-bees across a 10-day period.

 

Actually, the summer of 2008 had something similar, only the cut-off was more situated in the OV.  We seemed to have a sever thunderstorm watch like every day.  You could see crispy cauliflower tops by noon every day, and at 3:30 ... 'flint flint' boom! heavy rain and hail.

 

A lot of our convection comes by way of ULL's.  We look for Plains parametric layouts, but I bet more of our convection happens by way of MLCAPE, ...elevated lapse rates, and cool pools aloft.    

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