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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild


Damage In Tolland

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Not in our part of the country, especially after mid week next week. Not sure about after day 15..but it didn't look pretty here. The nation's heartland will bake.

 

Way too many failure modes in our tiny little part of the world when it comes to furnacing this time of year.

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One thing that will be kind of sad is all of the big 4 in SNE will have their streak of consecutive months BN come to an end this month. the mild wx the next 7 days will cement that. Looks like most places end up +1 to +2 for the month..Though most folks from here on out want AN temps until Sept..

Exactly, what better time could you ask for the switch

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One thing that will be kind of sad is all of the big 4 in SNE will have their streak of consecutive months BN come to an end this month. the mild wx the next 7 days will cement that. Looks like most places end up +1 to +2 for the month..Though most folks from here on out want AN temps until Sept..

hmm
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check your beloved teleconnection indexes post day 6

 

"beloved" ?   ha   -- I think if people understood Meteorology, ... they would be equally as embracing of teleconnectors as I. What people don't seem to get their heads wrapped around, and instead cackle like ignoramus rabble (think of those that made fun of Noah before his big flood, whether in truth or fiction that nonsense be... and corpse bobbed amid the resulting abyss as their penance) is that all mass in the atmosphere is conserved. Period. When the NAO is negative, there absolutely HAS TO BE counter balancing positive fields that EXACTLY equal; either singularly, or by the integration of multiple domains, the magnitude of the NAO departure.  Otherwise, the Earth's atmosphere is either gaining, or losing mass, in which either case we are all going to DIE. When/if people finally get that through their f heads, they will stop making fun of this, and start respecting what it means .. .because if one has the brains to understand what it means, it means their ass!   I dunno --  maybe this dramatic prose will at last be the vector toward enlightenment.   

 

Having said that ... not a warm look, no.  But, two cautions for folks:   

 

1) Teleconnectors are less useful during inflection seasons, because the wave-lengths in the mean are getting increasingly less uniform, shorter, the flow taking on a kind of 'spegetti logic' curvilinear entangled melange of impossible to predict eddies and ridges. No different, the current operational runs, et al, really reflect that with convolutions all over the place.  Compounding further ... it could also still have some predictive value -- not intending to say it has none.  Hell, I disagree with NCEP that the PNA has N/S in summer, but that's a different discussion.  In January, the current CDC spread would be tasty, with a persistent albeit low amplitude positive PNA ridging into a discerned dip in the NAO -- one we have not seen ... pretty much at any time during this preceding cold season.  Nice to finally see that emerge heading into May :axe:     Buuuut, again, we'll see how useful the index progs are going to be.

 

2) The GFS derived NAO going negative is an abrupt occurrence in the mean.  That abrupt of a change prooooobably needs to establish some continuity/persistence before the wise-one buys in more fully.  ...Although, the MJO seems to want to reactivated in Phase 7, way out in time.  Heh, who knows what that correlation is heading toward May.

 

The blend of the Euro ensemble from D6 to 10, don't look nearly as -NAO as the GFS, though.  

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I belove teleconnections too Tippy. 0z Euro is not a warm look after a couple of decent days. Hopefully it changes.You totally underestimate this forums understanding of the atmosphere as usual,singing to the choir in a kind of douche way

 

 

Dude, don't say "beloved" ... that's sort of douchy   ;)

 

and I DO believe that if folks REALLY respected what they mean/indicate, veraciously... they wouldn't do that, EVER

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Today has a particularly deep, penetrating butt-bang vibe about it...  I had to deliver my car to the shop at the butt crack of dawn, after which I had to then return walk the mile.change home.  

 

Of course, I drastically underestimated the cold because I still had so much bed-warmth surplus upon leaving the house ... all of which was quite efficiently radiated away pretty well prior to my completing the return hike.  There is also an abundance of strata ... perhaps that retreating high is puking some NW Atlantic cold, life-suffocating heat sink after all.  So far defeating the April sun's ability help evaporate.  It's just dull and numb out there.   Nice Good Friday!  

 

But...I'm like, enough already.  This cold bs has got to go.  It's just not going to snow, so there really isn't anything interesting about this, other than a stinging annoyance. Right in the middle of one's back, sans any back- scratcher. 

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This time of year can be hideous, and we are being reminded why. It can be pretty cool to downright chilly, with no real shots at snow.

These last couple days have just proved why this time of year can be brutal. The outlook isn't looking great for nice weather beyond the next 5 days or so. Bring on the warmth, cold this time of year pretty much means misery, not snow.

Hopefully we flip to something better long range.

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This time of year can be hideous, and we are being reminded why. It can be pretty cool to downright chilly, with no real shots at snow.

These last couple days have just proved why this time of year can be brutal. The outlook isn't looking great for nice weather beyond the next 5 days or so. Bring on the warmth, cold this time of year pretty much means misery, not snow.

Hopefully we flip to something better long range.

 

 

Yes indeed!   ...and about the only ray of mirth that penetrates the pal the cold offers, is that we can find creative ways of commiserating our collective plight.  

 

Me?  Oh ... haha, I like to impugn God -- but no one asked, and I'll stop short of offending anyone's core tenets.   

 

j/k.   I will say, however, I and others warned pretty loudly some ten days ago that the warm up just prior to mid-month ... you almost probably would have been better off if it did not take place at all.  

 

The problem is acclimation breakdown.  The whole event of moderation and sans of negative departures during the first two weeks of April is that for many, there was too much to resist and thus were bought in:  'finally, winter's past..'   I am over-hearing people concluding conversations in the door-jams of offices at work, that small talk about the weather, and just how ad nauseam the cold is now.  Conversations that did not take place prior to ... around the 10th of the month.  The heat of a few days worth of 50 to 60, book-ended by a couple of 70F pops, to mention a lot of lawn greening and tulip shoots, melted away the iron-hauled New Englander's climate armor, all too soon.  

 

But, we have our druthers.  Things actually do not look as bad for the next 5 days.  Originally, the warm pattern interlude was scheduled to end with a lot of NW Atlantic assault. Several cycles by multiple model types had late middle and extended ranges in a plague of on-shore misery. The implications were for just a fantastically cheerless dismality in those runs - wow.  Probably would have gone down, if verified, as the absolute pinnacle worst subjective April in the history of hateful climate.  

 

But here we are, and much of that has warmed. The appeal is totally different. We really only have to day where the retreating high is offering more east compounding to lop the NW Atlantic onshore.  Tomorrow appears to hit the low 60s in a dry, COL atmosphere. With ample higher sun angle, and light waft breeze at best, that's spring incarnate and actually quite intoxicatingly lovely. As Scott has saliently pointed out in the past (and I agree) a coldish bite to the air is a lot, LOT easier on one's senses and psyche when it is up underneath a powerful incandescent orb.  So, though yesterday and the day before were on the dip side of annoyance, at least staring out the window from within the climate controlled venue of an office building at least "looked" warm and springlike.  Heh, preferably seeking delusion over despair.  At least thankfully for me, I've pretty much 'drawn the shades' on the weather for this recession back to winter.  ...well, mock, pointless no snow winter... Been getting on with other activities, so it's been good.     

 

My problem at the moment is that I stupidly disconnected my VPN a little while ago, and because my fop is on my key chain (which is 2 miles away at the shop), I cannot connect back into work.  So I am bored and waiting for my car to be fixed.  Idle hands typing resentment ftl!

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oh Lord

 

I wasn't speaking to you, per se though -- I meant that for those that have said stuff in the past, attempting to diminish the value of using tele's... 

 

I am sorry, Steve, there is nothing douchy about my statements as they pertain to those sorts of heads.

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I wasn't speaking to you, per se though -- I meant that for those that have said stuff in the past, attempting to diminish the value of using tele's...

I am sorry, Steve, there is nothing douchy about my statements as they pertain to those sorts of heads.

not sure exactly who you refer to,I find the great majority here totally cognizant and understanding of how the atmosphere reacts to them and the implications on our sensible weather. My comments to have you check your beloved TCs was actually just a referral as it seemed you had taken verbatim OP runs without really looking at ens output.I certainly did not mean it in a negative connotation but your lecture to the forum regarding them was condescending
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