CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The pattern you've recognized for 6 weeks has been cold and dry. Recognize this Yes luck had nothing to do with missing out by 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Yes luck had nothing to do with missing out by 50 miles.Oh so voodoo luck? Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Oh so voodoo luck? CoolLuck is different then voodoo reasons why you assume the same will continue. Weve been over this countless times,but you refuse to listen. All I am saying is that it's a pattern that can still support interior snow. I never said its a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Yo coastal, is gfs off its meds with the 4/8-4/9 threat? Ens seem to like the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Nevermind, i sifted through the trash on this page and found orh and you liking the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The pattern you've recognized for 6 weeks has been cold and dry. Recognize this A hearty lolSent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Luck is different then voodoo reasons why you assume the same will continue. Weve been over this countless times,but you refuse to listen. All I am saying is that it's a pattern that can still support interior snow. I never said its a lock. Well isn't it clearly a pattern that doesn't support if it hasn't for 6 weeks? Unless you mean NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Well isn't it clearly a pattern that doesn't support if it hasn't for 6 weeks? Unless you mean NNE NNE hit, Cape Cod hit, Mid Atlantic hit...SNE bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 NNE hit, Cape Cod hit, Mid Atlantic hit...SNE bad luck. Bad timing, or does God hate Kevin? Nobody here can claim to know the real answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Well isn't it clearly a pattern that doesn't support if it hasn't for 6 weeks? Unless you mean NNE We've been over this many times...but any pattern that supports well above average storminess in the northeast including multiple snow events for both the Mid-Atlantic, Northen New England, and of course the near miss in the Cape Blizzard is one that had a higher than normal chance to bring a winter storm to SNE as well. You don't just look at the results or how "close" the misses were either. You look at longwave patterns and compare them to past patterns that also produced large winter storms. This is how we even know what a good pattern is to begin with...by studying hundreds of past patterns. There's enough inherent chaos in the flow that every good pattern doesn't always produce a snowstorm for your backyard. If it did, then a lot more people would quit their day jobs and become meteorologists. Likewise, not every unfavorable pattern produces no storms. Sometimes you get lucky and thread the needle in a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 We've been over this many times...but any pattern that supports well above average storminess in the northeast including multiple snow events for both the Mid-Atlantic, Northen New England, and of course the near miss in the Cape Blizzard is one that had a higher than normal chance to bring a winter storm to SNE as well. You don't just look at the results or how "close" the misses were either. You look at longwave patterns and compare them to past patterns that also produced large winter storms. This is how we even know what a good pattern is to begin with...by studying hundreds of past patterns. There's enough inherent chaos in the flow that every good pattern doesn't always produce a snowstorm for your backyard. If it did, then a lot more people would quit their day jobs and become meteorologists. Likewise, not every unfavorable pattern produces no storms. Sometimes you get lucky and thread the needle in a bad pattern. Don't know if you remember this, but I think it was Feb. '04 , after a Moscow-like January with vodka cold but very little snow at least for greater Boston, Walter Drag mentioned in one of the NOAA discussions that it's "Ready, set, go..." for a snowy period here. It was based on the synoptic pattern you like you refer to and appeared to impossible for us to miss. But inexplicably, we ended up with no storms or accumulating snow. I guess even when the synoptic pattern looks good, it's impossible to predict the alignment of the trough, or the placement of a high, or low, etc.Sent from my VS980 4G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Yep, true Randy. I'm not sure why this gets forgotten by some, but there tends to be a gravitation to the wx in people's backyards which then drives incorrect statements like DIT and from Whiteminster. Basically, we look at the hemispheric pattern and features that are placed in favorable climo spots for snow in SNE Small scale features and nuances in the flow that can cause heavy snow to miss by 50-100 miles simply cannot be determined 1-2 weeks out. Likewise a pattern may look unfavorable 1-2 weeks out, but a stubborn 1040 high north of Maine turns a 1-3" event into 4-8". A bust in the positive. Dec 2007 and 2008 features many of these. You just can't get cute with details that far out in time so we word things like "favorable"...but you also notice we are careful with the wording. We as mets are well versed in how things can go downhill or uphill in a matter of 48hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 To sum up ... epic pattern delivered a rare, epic monster storm. End of discussion. Anything beyond is backyard self-serving agenda that is immature, non-scientific, and so utterly myopic in perspective that it's just falsity. There's nothing else to say... Now, if no storms of any kind resulted, there "might" be room for some retrospective analysis, but it still would not preclude the very truth that the correlation to the pattern at large was for storms. As far as verification, there was a 10-25" snow bomb for NNE, and a historic cyclone just off shore. The pattern delivered just exactly how it was expected to do so. Grow up! A lot of users on here don't get it and think the weather is there to entertain, and if it cancels the concert on them ... they got no one to blame but them selves for being idiosyncratic to begin with, so they point fingers at Mets. ******** Tues-Wed ... more likely Wed, could be close to top 10ers if things break right. The 00z operational Euro signaled a light wind, clear sky amid 850s soaring to +4C-ish for western MA/VT and CT. Eastern sections would probably have less appeal, as there is whopper (typical) spring gradient from west to east. The seaward retreating whirl left over from the snow storm tonight into early Monday is belaying the arrival of those warmer 850s, and it compressing the thermal field like nobody's business. So it's a halfsies type of day on Tuesday (probably) where it may nudge 70F at ALB if full heating is realized, and only 50F at Logan... particularly if the wind flips on-shore at the latter. Still, if one is tired of this sh!t and is embracing spring's arrival (like me), it's looking like a dandy day west of an ~ ORH-ASH line. Wednesday appears awesome for everyone! The whirl's last tentacle of reach-back desperation to ruin people's sense of mirth is finally snapped off by the fact that the f*ck*r is almost to England already ... and it's +2C over CNE, around +4 in SNE to perhaps +6C at NYC. There is likely to be a seabreeze kicking in for coastal communities, but even there, they should get to 1 or 2pm with high diabatic day amid 850's that would support temperatures nearing 70F. Those that want to refute this because they hate the thought of winter ending and are crazy ... don't bother: ur analysis is about as useful a used urinalysis. These are straight up Meteorological facts when employing synoptics with hard numbers and a skew-T Log-P diagram. Now if folks want to argue that the Euro is wrong... could be. But it's a D4 chart now. I have been monitoring this post bowling ball event period for some time, but have waited to get to a 96 hour lead. Even for the Euro .. .in April there's a bit of enhanced stochastic tendency to disrupt verification; although the UKMET and the NAVGEM seemed to support this appeal more so than the GGEM or GFS. Huge bust potential if the GFS verified with it's warm boundary identity, and a stripe of isentropic cool rains developing not too far away. That would definitely be a different sensible weather day. I'm willing to hunch the GFS is too fast with the weak polar fropa that then lends to a warm boundary S heading through Wednesday, as the model has a fast bias much of the time anyway. We'll see... ******* I am not fully convinced that there will not be a 3-5 day recession into a deeper wintry appeal and/or attending event thereafter in the April 5-10th range. There is a pretty big Archembault signal there... The NAO ... perhaps for the first time in eternity it would seem, finally has gone/going negative leading up to, and then it begins a rapid rise, right in tandem with an impressive +2SD recovery (or more) in the PNA teleconnector. For those that know her science, budda boom budda bing. Purely conceptually, if the NAO is successful at loading SE Canada with cool anomaly air mass, and then the PNA dumps classic spring bundle into the OV/TV area, then we are setting the stage for an eastern N/A precipitation even during a period of the year where it is perhaps less likely, but not impossible to reclaim snow... certainly misery. I would pay attention to those GFS ideas, and not be surprised if the others start sniffing something out, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 As we said yesterday 60's to near 70 this week away from coast. We don't need War and Peace thesis posts. We just forecast and wait for verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 As we said yesterday 60's to near 70 this week away from coast. We don't need War and Peace thesis posts. We just forecast and wait for verification Ur a dyck seriously ... some people enjoy it and have given me accolades; it's probably more for them Kev' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 Ur a dyck seriously ... some people enjoy it and have given me accolades; it's probably more for them Kev' No no. I made several posts yesterday about the midweek period having several 65-70 days and was scolded by mets saying it was SE flow and it wouldn't be nice or mild. My idea was light wind and full sun would lead to a few 70 ish days at a place like BDL and they said no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 No no. I made several posts yesterday about the midweek period having several 65-70 days and was scolded by mets saying it was SE flow and it wouldn't be nice or mild. My idea was light wind and full sun would lead to a few 70 ish days at a place like BDL and they said no Fair enough ... but I would stay away from "few" and "several" -- that's not what's signaled here. As I explained, it's a western NE thing on Tuesday to perhaps as far E as an ASH-ORH longitude, and more all encompassing on Wednesday. That's 1.5 days at most, before the pattern gets dicey and yucky again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 With +4C 850s at the beginning of April you need everything to go right to hit 70F. That's a +17C from H85 to the sfc. I think I'd start at 55-60F first and wait to see what those weak vorts do in the coming days...could be some clouds and onshore flow. As for CNE, I still have a deep snowpack so forget about 60s here. I'll be lucky to hit 50F. Maybe my thoughts are just pee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 65-70 would be a tough one. I don't see that, but it could be seasonably mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 I just like being devils advocate. I know the Mets are doing the best they can with the information at hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 With +4C 850s at the beginning of April you need everything to go right to hit 70F. That's a +17C from H85 to the sfc. I think I'd start at 55-60F first and wait to see what those weak vorts do in the coming days...could be some clouds and onshore flow. As for CNE, I still have a deep snowpack so forget about 60s here. I'll be lucky to hit 50F. Maybe my thoughts are just pee?Well again we were discussing a place like BDL who warms very easily this time of year with full sun and removed from awful ocean. We even mentioned BDL specifically yesterday.. Not north central NH with 2 feet of snow and more coming tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 No no. I made several posts yesterday about the midweek period having several 65-70 days and was scolded by mets saying it was SE flow and it wouldn't be nice or mild. My idea was light wind and full sun would lead to a few 70 ish days at a place like BDL and they said no Ahhh we missed the BDL temp discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 65-70 would be a tough one. I don't see that, but it could be seasonably mild. Its probably the type of day where if things go right, BDL hits 63 or something and ORH is like 57F. But I'm honestly not going to get in one of those mind-numbing discussions about BDL versus the rest of interior New England. I agree that widspread warmth of that magnitude is unlikely this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Well again we were discussing a place like BDL who warms very easily this time of year with full sun and removed from awful ocean. We even mentioned BDL specifically yesterday.. Not north central NH with 2 feet of snow and more coming tomorrowBDL has the +4C 850s...point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Its probably the type of day where if things go right, BDL hits 63 or something and ORH is like 57F. But I'm honestly not going to get in one of those mind-numbing discussions about BDL versus the rest of interior New England. I agree that widspread warmth of that magnitude is unlikely this week Yeah I need to physically pull myself away from the microanalyzed temp talk drivel. Regardless...low 60s would feel nice so everyone will claim victory if BDL comes in with a 63F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Its probably the type of day where if things go right, BDL hits 63 or something and ORH is like 57F. But I'm honestly not going to get in one of those mind-numbing discussions about BDL versus the rest of interior New England. I agree that widspread warmth of that magnitude is unlikely this week Thoughts on later next week or the 8-10? GEFS are frustratingly close to something on the 5th, but I don't quite buy that at the moment. The EC did cool a little on that one. 8-10 still seems like another possibility. Both of them have great looking surface highs, but temps aloft get tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 I made a comment about what I thought the midweek period would look like. I didn't ask for anyone to respond. If you don't want to talk about temperatures thruout the region then please just don't respond to the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 .95" last night. Still no bare ground on my 15 acre property but looking to get close under the apple trees. Still waiting for my first 50F since Nov 17 2013. I'll take that in a heartbeat later this week!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 70s at BDL on Wednesday might be a bit of a reach on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 No I just said it looks like maybe more of a cold rain deal. A few days ago it looked more interesting. GEFS are a colder soution...but not sure I buy that. Overnight guidance keyed in on 4/9-10.This season has murdered every threat for the past 6 weeks. Wouldn't expect it to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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