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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild


Damage In Tolland

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they're going weak to moderate Nino ala 02-03, 04-05 and 9-10

I noticed the super nino alarmists have backed off lately on their predictions, they ran with April data which has little correlation to winter conditions. I am hoping its as big a fail as the October death vortex calls by the MJO huggers and the Cicada invasion predictions.

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they're going weak to moderate Nino ala 02-03, 04-05 and 9-10

 

 

Well '09'-10 def wasn't close to weak...it was a mdoerate to strong Nino. '02-'03 was moderate.

 

'04-'05 was definitely weak though.

 

 

There's still a lot of time for this one. The eastern Nino regions are still much colder than a Nino like '97-'98, so I'm doubting the Super Nino, but I could def see a pretty strong event ala '09-'10 or '57-'58 or '65-'66. If we are to make a run at an even stronger Nino ala '82-'83 or '72-'73, then we'll need to see these next waves of WWBs sustain very well into the east PAC.

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I think you need to wait until the end of May to see what these Kelvin waves and WWB do, in order to claim super Nino. Seems like the next 6 weeks will be telling. CFS I think was trying to cool waters a bit behind this next wave. Overall though, it's been impressive sub surface warming. Lets hope the eastern regions stay cooler.

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I think you need to wait until the end of May to see what these Kelvin waves and WWB do, in order to claim super Nino. Seems like the next 6 weeks will be telling. CFS I think was trying to cool waters a bit behind this next wave. Overall though, it's been impressive sub surface warming. Lets hope the eastern regions stay cooler.

agenda driven hype, super nino coming, its out of control. 

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A Ginxy delight.  

 

WU text forecast for MBY.

 

 

Tuesday Night 04/15 100%

Rain early followed by a mixture of wintry precipitation late. Low 32F. Winds W at 20 to 30 mph. Snow and ice accumulations around one inch.

Wednesday 04/16 60%

Snow ending during the morning followed by clearing and sunshine during the afternoon. High 47F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.

 

Wednesday Night 04/16 0%

Clear. Low 28F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.

 

 

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someone's been drinking the wattsupwiththat kool aid

so you think a super nino is coming? and what koolaid? I looked at models, looks like a moderate west based NIno at worst, so a pool of very warm water in April will lead to a super Nino, cool, happy forecasting has come that far where even if no models show it, because some alarmist ran with it it will be true. Reality based is what I like , I could care less what either side says you are just as bad as the other. Hypsters on both sides are ruining real science. Dont paint me into a corner like you do with everyone, people have independent thought processes, deal with it.

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so you think a super nino is coming? and what koolaid? I looked at models, looks like a moderate west based NIno at worst, so a pool of very warm water in April will lead to a super Nino, cool, happy forecasting has come that far where even if no models show it, because some alarmist ran with it it will be true. Reality based is what I like , I could care less what either side says you are just as bad as the other. Hypsters on both sides are ruining real science. Dont paint me into a corner like you do with everyone, people have independent thought processes, deal with it.

 

lol

 

Most of the experts who know a lot more about global circulation and ENSO than we do are hedging toward super nino and think it definitely has a shot (though they all admit it's not a lock but a distinct possibility). Szygys and soil samples can only tell you so much. 

 

As for the "alarmist" stuff I actually haven't seen a whole lot from the national media or even the west coast going nuts. A blog post or a tweet or a brief article does not constitute out of control hype.

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