CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Having said all that ... it may yet improve for a late high. I think the mid 70s idea has set sail, but we may get a temp lurch with a late afternoon warm fropa here. Sat shows western mass abruptly scouring out -- no doubt diabatically assisted, as the mid level deck escapes east and opens the low levels to unabated solar insolation. Synoptically that has to evolve east. No choice. But it will probably be an agonizing race against the arc of the sun as the afternoon progresses. This has the look of a stubborn E-SE flow at Logan until this evening...maybe that 6pm bounce or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Yeah this product that I have has MUCAPE and KI. It's really good at hinting at rain and/or thunder. Looks like it won't be long for some sun in HFD. Yup... on its way. The UConn parade is today at 4... it should be beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 LOL... right. Well, as I just posted...we are probably going to alleviated some of the extremeness of this bust, as the skies ...slowly, torturously slowly brighten from west to east. Also, yeah to the Euro... But I also offer that there were some marks on the wall in most guidance. I raised a eye brow yesterday when I saw a positive pressure differential slipping SE of Maine, while the elevated QPF was coming through VT/NH. Yeah you did mention that. Good ob. This time of year...as long as the sun is out..it's usually nice out. An onshore wind will cool the beaches, but less than 10kts of wind with sunshine will get areas a couple of miles inland into the mild side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 This has the look of a stubborn E-SE flow at Logan until this evening...maybe that 6pm bounce or something. Exactly! good description...recognition. It's like I could almost get warm blasted here in Ayer, while Logan is choked off until like 6:13pm, when an abrupt wind shift spikes them... But in order for that sort of scenario, we really need to get that quasi warm front into the SW subburbs area... Millis pops to 72F at 4pm, and Logan is 49 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Exactly! good description...recognition. It's like I could almost get warm blasted here in Ayer, while Logan is choked off until like 6:13pm, when an abrupt wind shift spikes them... But in order for that sort of scenario, we really need to get that quasi warm front into the SW subburbs area... Millis pops to 72F at 4pm, and Logan is 49 type deal. 46 at Logan right now...everybody was calling for lower 70s. I mean it will get warm inland when the sun comes out...but yikes..that is misery there at the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Gorgeous out, -RN and 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 actually looks like some cloud acceleration from the S now on vis loop... Skies slowly brightening here in Ayer, but as of yet zippo temp response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Finally got around to seeing the 00z Euro and wow it's our hero... That drabby shyts pattern of the GGEM and GFS' prior runs is no where to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Gorgeous out, -RN and 36F Yeah just atrocious day so far... been sitting mid-30s all day at the office (up to the high now of 38F) and right at freezing higher up with rain/snow mix. Even up here the forecast called for temps well into the 50s to around 60F. But I'm thinking we get there late...even if its like 5-7pm. The overnight low is 55F tonight, haha, so we gotta get there first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Full sun here after some morning clouds-up to 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Yeah just atrocious day so far... been sitting mid-30s all day at the office (up to the high now of 38F) and right at freezing higher up with rain/snow mix. Even up here the forecast called for temps well into the 50s to around 60F. But I'm thinking we get there late...even if its like 5-7pm. The overnight low is 55F tonight, haha, so we gotta get there first. Big difference a day makes with these temp swings, Mid to upper 60's yesterday and mid 30's today, Monday looks like low 70's......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 *64 in TAN. Bob must be nude. * is for ASOS there. Runs warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Sun out and Kenny Rogers has turned his roasters on. Wow what a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Finally got around to seeing the 00z Euro and wow it's our hero... That drabby shyts pattern of the GGEM and GFS' prior runs is no where to be seen. AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Stations from PVD to PYM gusting to 25-30kts from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Stations from PVD to PYM gusting to 25-30kts from the south. Definitely a warm front.... What I am trying to determine is if the boundary frontogenesized overnight, or was there a kind of weak backdooring... I think the latter, when considering that high pressure cell slipping SE off upper Maine. But I am not sure... So far for N of Rt 2 and the Merrimack Valley areas... If it goes down this way it would be a bust equal in magnitude to the QPF bomb back on Dec 23, '97 ...but for temperature, and perfectly wrong to incur the most misery. Fascinating how the atmosphere can be so utterly unredeeming at times. Ha! heh, what can you do... In the end the atmosphere has nothing to do with it... The modeling is/was the onus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 lol...12z MET has 67F at CON at 18z. It's currently 42F there. I've never seen MOS bust that badly in 6hrs before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Definitely a warm front.... What I am trying to determine is if the boundary frontogenesized overnight, or was there a kind of weak backdooring... I think the latter, when considering that high pressure cell slipping SE off upper Maine. But I am not sure... So far for N of Rt 2 and the Merrimack Valley areas... If it goes down this way it would be a bust equal in magnitude to the QPF bomb back on Dec 23, '97 ...but for temperature, and perfectly wrong to incur the most misery. Fascinating how the atmosphere can be so utterly unredeeming at times. Ha! heh, what can you do... In the end the atmosphere has nothing to do with it... The modeling is/was the onus. Sometimes these MCS rains give an almost in situ backdooring or CAD type deal. Just reiforces the cool side of the front from wetbullbing. I do think the high slipping off definitely helped too. Either way, it looks like the front is moving north over SE MA if you look at the TDWR velocity images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 lol...12z MET has 67F at CON at 18z. It's currently 42F there. I've never seen MOS bust that badly in 6hrs before. Holy crap! Oh that NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 We tan today. Heads faces and Napes relishing this early summer feel. What a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 We tan today. Heads necks and Napes relishing this early summer feel. What a day We've had this since Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 We've had this since Friday.Youve had 47 and clouds/ Ne wind / am rains since Friday? Dews coming up nicely here. We wipe stickily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 starting to mix out here in Ayer... Temp just bumped to 54 from 49 an hour ago, the sky is much brighter now... That PD meso map shows a significant reduction in areal coverage of plaguing upper 40s chill ... now relegated to extreme N zones and NE mass. Even in these area, a run at 60F appears inevitable, while people between the Rt 2 and the Pike will probably get a 65 to 70 F charge. It will cut into the extremeness of the bust, awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Youve had 47 and clouds/ Ne wind / am rains since Friday? Dews coming up nicely here. We wipe stickily I was in the lower 70s Friday and Saturday. It will be in the 60s when I get home...front is tickling the house as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Gonna be some low 80's tomorrow north of ORH in Merrimack Valley up into NH. South winds south of pike will limit the warmth to 72-75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Gonna be some low 80's tomorrow north of ORH in Merrimack Valley up into NH. South winds south of pike will limit the warmth to 72-75 Of course nothing like southerly gales with the warm wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Of course nothing like southerly gales with the warm wx.lol maybe a few damaging gusts to rotting trees out of the south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Wed Am is gonna be awful. Mid - upper 20's with wind on GFS. Dear God that sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Starting to suspect a rapid temp recovery, though it may be diabatic in nature. The warm front is being stubborn. I have an ENE gentle breeze here in Ayer and many surrounding obs are the same. Meanwhile.... discerned boundary doesn't move N for some reason... There's no longer resistence and it should, so we'll see. Usually .. any air movement toward the SW at all and your doomed. Really. The air has to almost be completely devoid of any movement to overcome the topographic curl of return flow at llv in situations such as these. Nonetheless, just in the last hour there's a surge NE with the denser plaguing ceilings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 still stuck at 46.5 at UML hoping to clear out within the hour, could still make a run for 68-70 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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