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April Discussion..Mild overall..and really not wild


Damage In Tolland

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Vollmar on WCVB is horrible. She's running around all morning acting like it's going to be an awesome day. Look out the window sweetheart. Talk about being misleading because your living in a fairytale.  More like nice aftn perhaps..and that might not be until after 1 for ern areas.

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Euro won this one. 12z run yesterday had the front along the pike and even hinted at some light rain. NE MA FTL.

 

Yup... nice job by the Euro. The signs were there... glad the (well, my) forecast is working out. 

 

Now just have to worry about stratus/fog tomorrow. 

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Impressive cold bust going on this afternoon... very steep in fact. With low to mid 40s currently where it should be 72 and climbing, and ...apparently, hopeless for the day...

 

I have been watching the high res vis loops this mid to late morning, wondering when that sharp back edge to the cloud deck would move swiftly east, and it just has evidenced its self;  perhaps never! 

 

What appears to be going on is a classic, geological-topographic cold air trap scenario, where saturation into an antecedent dry air mass has wet-bulbed, locally, to manufacture a dense slap of typical April bullsh!t, and since the gradient is weak (and not helping that a weak back-door and now west-east stationary boundary resides in the area), there is no way to scour the mire out that is choked in E of the Berk's.  In fact, said vis loop shows the mid levels zipping off to the east quite quickly, but it is like pealing off only to expose a low level slab of dense dreariness in its wake.  Almost cookie-cutter aligns with the virtual bowl that is SNE, E of the elevations out west. 

 

I guess it is kind of interesting to see that sort of idiosyncratic nuance about our environs play out, even if it is at the expense of mega-bust and ruined weekend day.  

 

We'll see if things improve during the afternoon... I am just kicking my self for not mentioning this possibility, yesterday, when I saw +pp differential slipping E of Maine in the models, while an elevated MCS remnant was moving through VT/NH.  It was in most models yesterday, and in April, that is tough to do without penalties down here... 

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Vollmar on WCVB is horrible. She's running around all morning acting like it's going to be an awesome day. Look out the window sweetheart. Talk about being misleading because your living in a fairytale.  More like nice aftn perhaps..and that might not be until after 1 for ern areas.

 

this is a huge bust though... 

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Yup... nice job by the Euro. The signs were there... glad the (well, my) forecast is working out. 

 

Now just have to worry about stratus/fog tomorrow. 

 

Yeah luckily I didn't have to forecast surface stuff. I just remember looking at the intability push and it seemed like it argued for a few shwrs here...that always seems to happen...we get this WAA stuff a bit further south than model QPF suggests.

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Yeah luckily I didn't have to forecast surface stuff. I just remember looking at the intability push and it seemed like it argued for a few shwrs here...that always seems to happen...we get this WAA stuff a bit further south than model QPF suggests.

 

Seems to happen almost every time. It is funny that it really is the nose of steep mid level lapse rates too... enough to get Wiz all riled up. 

 

This time of year I always like to look at the leading edge of MUCAPE for an easy win over model QPF. 

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Having said all that ... it may yet improve for a late high. I think the mid 70s idea has set sail, but we may get a temp lurch with a late afternoon warm fropa here.  

 

Sat shows western mass abruptly scouring out -- no doubt diabatically assisted, as the mid level deck escapes east and opens the low levels to unabated solar insolation.  

 

Synoptically that has to evolve east. No choice.  But it will probably be an agonizing race against the arc of the sun as the afternoon progresses. 

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Seems to happen almost every time. It is funny that it really is the nose of steep mid level lapse rates too... enough to get Wiz all riled up. 

 

This time of year I always like to look at the leading edge of MUCAPE for an easy win over model QPF. 

 

Yeah this product that I have has MUCAPE and KI. It's really good at hinting at rain and/or thunder. 

 

Looks like it won't be long for some sun in HFD.

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Tell her that. LOL.

 

LOL... right.   

 

Well, as I just posted...we are probably going to alleviated some of the extremeness of this bust, as the skies ...slowly, torturously slowly brighten from west to east.  

 

Also, yeah to the Euro... But I also offer that there were some marks on the wall in most guidance.  I raised a eye brow yesterday when I saw a positive pressure differential slipping SE of Maine, while the elevated QPF was coming through VT/NH.  That's a backdoor signal in July for that matter, let alone the god-foresaken dreariness of April

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